Project Estimating Using Microsoft Project David Brandon, PMP

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Project EstimatingUsing Microsoft ProjectDavid
Brandon, PMP
WELCOME TO MPA THE OFFICIAL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION
FOR MICROSOFT OFFICE PROJECT
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Objectives

• Share the Top 10 Estimating Mistakes
• Share A Method for Definitive Estimating
• Use the WBS as the primary tool
• Learn Tips Tricks to define the work and apply
  costs to the project effort
• Learn how to quickly estimate the standard
  Project Management tasks

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How Does Estimating Fit Into the Project Life
Cycle?

• Customers Basis to fund it the project.
• Portfolio Manager Basis to release the project
  and assign a PM.
• QA Basis to oversee the effort.
• PM Basis to re-estimate later and is the basis
  of Earned Value.
• Budgeting Forecast of costs or revenue.
• Resource Managers Forecast staffing or hiring.

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Mistake 10Estimating Duration Rather than Work

• Do not confuse work with schedule or duration.
• Determine Effort Before You Assign Start- and
  Stop-Dates.
• When your schedule drives your project, you will
  be working non-stop overtime and never catch up.

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Mistake 9Inability to Defend Your Estimate(or
Failing to Document Your Assumptions)

• You will have to get down to the details to
  produce a defensible estimate.
• Documenting Your Assumptions Demonstrates That
  You Have Considered All the Necessary Factors in
  Your Estimate
• Use Your Defense Tactics For Each Task
• Experience, Estimating Factors, High/Med/Low

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Mistake 8Wrong Level of Detail

• Preliminary Estimate vs. Detailed Estimate
• Approximation vs. Definitive Estimate
• Top-Down vs. Bottom Up
• 75/- 25 vs. /- 10
• Order of Magnitude vs. The Workplan

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What type of estimating are you doing when
 
  Top-Down
  Bottom-Up
  Other
1 You develop a detailed WBS that decomposes the
work?
 
 
 
2.You ask your friend what his estimate was for a
similar project?
 
 
 
You steal someone elses WBS from a similar
project and modify it?
 
 
 
4. Your deadline is in 2 weeks and 2 people are
available so the estimate is 160 hours?
 
 
 
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Mistake 7Mistaking TCO with Deployment Cost

• System Lifecycle costs are different than project
  costs.
• Lifecycle includes planned maintenance, unplanned
  maintenance, System retirement, etc.
• The Lifecycle may include a series of projects.
• Initial development, individual software releases
  or upgrades, etc.
• Question
• You are deploying a new system. Do the web
  servers get estimated with the Project or with
  the TCO?

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Mistake 6Fear of the Exact Science of
Estimating

• There is no exact science thats the secret.
• There is no Right or Wrong
• Impress your boss.

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Mistake 5Forcing the Work to fit a Pre-defined
Estimate or Budget

• Proposal development is often split up into 2
  pieces
• define the work
• determine the pricing.
• When the price goes down (because of market
  conditions) does that automatically reduce the
  work?
• Scope Control is the key.
• Make sure your price matches the work.
• Make sure the work matches the scope.

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Mistake 4Not Including Contingency

• Contingency allows you to deploy change orders
  without having to renegotiate the contract.
• The less exact your estimate the greater your
  contingency should be.
• Contingency accounts for
• Unforeseen Work (Change Orders)
• Variances is Estimate vs. Actuals (EAC)

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Mistake 3Reinventing the Wheel

• Focus on Executing Phase.
• All of the Project Management Tasks should
  already be defined. These dont change from
  Project to Project.
• For Client Proposals, do not include the Project
  Estimating Task.
• Use PMBOK as your outline.

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Project Management Tasks
Only the Executing Tasks Change from Project to
Project!

• Initiating
• Planning
• Executing
• Controlling
• Closing

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Mistake 2Not Defining the Estimates Purpose

• Define the outcomes first, then estimate the
  work.
• Price?
• Statement of Work?
• Proposal?
• Fixed-fee Bid?
• Do you need an order of magnitude or exact
  numbers?
• Will the estimate be binding contractually?

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Mistake 1Failing to Re-Plan During Execution

• This isnt just in the Planning stage.
• Are Your Assumptions Still Valid?
• Every Change Request needs to be estimated.
• Take a step back.
• Earned Value Metrics rely on Re-Estimates.

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Project Re-Estimating

• Initiating
• Planning
• Executing
• Design
• Build
• Test
• Deploy
• Controlling
• Closing

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Estimating Steps

• 1. Define the Work
• 2. Document Your Assumptions
• 3. Decompose the Tasks
• 4. Document Your Assumptions
• 5. Determine the Effort for Each Task
• 6. Document Your Assumptions
• 7. Determine the Schedule for Each Task
• 8. Document Your Assumptions
• 9. Determine the Staffing for Each Task
• 10. Document Your Assumptions
• 11. Repeat Steps 3-10 As Needed To Refine

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Summary

• 10 Estimating Duration Rather than Work
• 9 Failing to Document Assumptions / Not Being
  Able to Defend Your Estimate
• 8 Wrong Level of Detail
• 7 Mistaking Cost of Deployment with TCO
• 6 Fear of the Exact Science of Estimating
• 5 Forcing the Work to fit a Pre-defined Estimate
• 4 Not Including a Contingency
• 3 Reinventing the Wheel
• 2 Failing to Define the Purpose of the Estimate
• 1 Failing to Re-Plan During the Execution Stage

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Consider Yourself the Lead Estimator

• Involve Your Team.
• They may have done similar work before
  (Experiential Estimates).
• They may be actually doing the work. Make them
  accountable.
• Ask for Help.
• It is in your best interest to get as many eyes
  on your estimate as you can.

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Estimating Factors Exercise
What is the impact to your estimate, all other
things being equal?
  Increase
  Decrease
  No Impact
1. Multiple Systems Are Involved?
 
 
 
2. You decide you need an Integrated Product
Team? (A team matrixed from other functional
areas)
 
 
 

 
 
 
3. Someone without direct knowledge of the system
will be assigned to perform the work?
4. This is the 2nd release or very similar to
another project that is already being done?
 
 
 
5. You need to prepare a Project Management Plan
or Maintenance Management Plan?
 
 
 
6. Your implementation date is moved forward by 1
month?
 
 
 
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WBS Demonstration
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The Foundation Of Planning And Control?
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Create the Project Task List

• Identify major tasks first
• Then Decompose the tasks
• Then Decompose them even more
• Document Your Assumptions

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Add the Dependencies

• Link the tasks (or input Predecessors)
• Confirm the Dependency Type (FS, FF, SS, SF)
• Determine Your Critical Path
• Document Your Assumptions

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Add the Estimate for Each Task

• Insert the column Work
• Put in your best estimate for each task
• Document Your Assumptions

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Create the Resource Sheet
Dont forget to input the Standard Rate
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Assign Resources to Each Task
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Update the Project Schedule
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Input Start- and Finish-Dates
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Update Each Persons Schedule
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Insert the Cost Column
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Where to Get More Information

• www.PMI-Govsig.org (March 2004 issue)
• www.irmc.com Information Resource Management
  Commission (IRMC) Standard for Estimating Costs
  and Delivery Dates
• FAA template http//fast.faa.gov/wbs/wbssec.htm
• NASA WEB Guide http//appl.nasa.gov/perf_support/t
  ools/RefGuide3.pdf

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Speaker Biography
David Brandon is an award-winning Project Manager
who has practiced the craft within (and
consulting to) the public sector for 15 years. He
is an experienced writer and trainer on the topic
of Project Management. He is a Project Manager at
the Texas Health and Human Services Commission,
Enterprise Information Technology Division in
Austin, Texas. He has experience directing and
managing multiple, simultaneous information
technology projects for the public sector. He
holds the Project Management Professional (PMP)
certification from the Project Management
Institute (PMI). He is one of only 20 individuals
worldwide that holds PMIs Certification of Added
Qualification for Project Management Office. He
is certified in MS Project and other MS Office
software productivity tools.   He currently
serves the Project Management Institute (PMI)
Government Specific Interest Group (GovSIG) as
Vice-Chair and is the GovSIG Magazine Senior
Editor. Prior to joining the State of Texas,
David was a project management consultant to the
public sector.
David A. Brandon, PMP Project ManagerInformation
Technology Division Texas Health Human
Services Commission david.brandon_at_hhsc.state.tx.us