WASIS

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WASIS
Summer WAS IS
weather society integrated studies
Changing from what WAS to what IS the future of
integrated weather studies
Eve Gruntfest Julie Demuth July 13-21, 2006
Boulder, CO
Welcome to Summer Camp for Smart Kids
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Getting to Summer WASIS

• Eve Julies career journeys from grad student
  to WASIS crusaders
• 2. Justification for WASIS
• 3. Barriers we will overcome
• 4. WASIS measures of success

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Eves role applied geographer

• Social scientist in world of engineers physical
  scientists
• Career based on Big Thompson Flood
• Focus Flash floods warning systems

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The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado July 31, 1976
-- were going on Tuesday!

• 140 lives lost - 35 miles northwest of Boulder
• Studied the behaviors that night
• Who lived?
• Who died?
• Led to detection response systems

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30 years later

• Signs
• FLASH FLOODS are recognized as different from
  slow rise floods
• Real- time detection,
• some response

• More federal agencies do flood warning
• Vulnerability increases

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2006

• National Weather Service overpromises
• Dams/
• infrastructure aging
• Development pressure on open space

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The Big Thompson Flood

• New focus for next generation of policy makers
  scientists involved in flood mitigation
  especially in Colorado

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25 years as geography professor - Great
opportunities - local, national, global

• Multi-disciplinary Partners- hydrologists,
  meteorologists
• Active involvement with User Groups
• National Hydrologic Warning Council
• Association of State Floodplain Managers
• Cooperative Program on Operational Meteorology,
  Education Training (COMET)
• NATO conference, Work in Australia, India,
  France, Italy, England
• National Academy of Sciences Committees

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Julies background

• M.S. in atmospheric research from Colorado State
  U.
• Remote sensing of tropical cyclones
• Science policy at National Research Council
• Program officer with Board on Atmospheric
  Sciences Climate running congressionally
  mandated agency-requested studies
• Interest in societal impacts WASIS!

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• Integrate weather social science to empower
  practitioners, researchers, stakeholders to
  forge new relationships to use new tools for
  more effective socio-economic applications
  evaluations of weather products.

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What is WASIS?

• Tools concepts communication, forecasting,
  GIS, qualitative research, decision making,
  economics, vulnerability, verification
• Skills initiating building relationships,
  overcoming barriers

Capacity building create a community for
lifelong collaboration support!
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Why WASIS?

• How to integrate (not add) social science into
  meteorology?
• Avoiding another Hurricane Katrina is NOT just
  about improving the models!!
• How to grow a community of people passionate
  about dedicated to this?

. . .
Crucial to recognizing addressing societal
impacts in a real, sustained way
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Why WASIS now?

• Growing recognition that (meteorology social
  science) gt sum of its parts!

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WASIS Justification

• Making Culture Change happen -
• Now sustainably
• B I G WASIS idea lists to GROW By next Friday
• Large undisputable list of possibilities
  priorities

We have idealistic positive outlooks
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WASIS is part of a movement -- Moving beyond
rhetoric to action

• Research Experience for Undergraduates hazard
  social science
• Bill Hookes American Meteorological Society
  policy program

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The WASIS workshops

• Began as a one-time adventure
• Grew into 3 workshops (so far) evolved
• Original 2-part workshop in Boulder (November
  2005 March 2006)
• Condensed 3-day workshop in Norman (April 2006)
• Summer WASISers WELCOME to the WASIS family
  !!!!

Over 85 WAS ISers!
. . .
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Tangible accomplishments

• In-person interviews development of on-line
  survey to elicit first responders weather needs
  understanding
• Interdisciplinary development of conceptual model
  on communication propagation of forecast
  uncertainty
• Development of forecast confidence scale on
  weather blog (www.capitalweather.com/)
• Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
  article
• WASIS sessions at conferences DEADLINe sOON!
• WxSoc newsgroup register at http//www.sip.ucar.
  edu/wxsoc.jsp

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You are the ELITE!

• More than 60 applications 31 are here!
• Senior officials, Grad students
• Practitioners, Researchers
• Consultants, Federal officials

WASISers demonstrate significant commitment to
culture change
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Summer WASIS particularities

• More social scientists
• More senior participants
• Build on earlier workshop lessons
• Take advantage of meals, breaks to interact with
  everyone ... its your chance to build your
  networks
• More open time posing questions for discussion,
  brainstorming about problems and possibilities,
  new directives and initiatives
• Invent creative, previously unimagined new tools,
  case studies, implementation strategies
• Life-long commitment from many vantage points
  researchers, practitioners, various backgrounds,
  public private

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Some WASIS long-term possibilities by next
FRIDAY you ADD CONTRIBUTE to list

• Summer 2007 workshop
• Applications for WASIS beyond weather
• Short course for AMS, for National Weather
  Service (in person or distance learning)
• WASIS for introducing meteorology to social
  scientists
• Development of edited collection /or book
  proposal
• Ongoing annual WAS IS
• Shorter, more focused, courses (e.g., qualitative
  research methods)
• Advanced WASISes
• Development of Capstone course for meteorology
  students at University of Oklahoma
• Funding to support WASIS research applications

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Fort Collins Big Thompson Canyon field trip
National Weather Service forecast office
New model Gina will talk about this
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Highlights Distinguished presenters

• Drobot, Joys of collaboration motivations for
  people to drive through floods
• Morss, Problem definitions end-to-end-to-end
  process
• Wilhelmi, GIS vulnerability exercise
• Lazo, Overview of weathery economic case studies
  
• Hayden Pulwarty, interactions with Climate
  Health workshop Thursday

Pay close attention to substance style! What
messages get across how Less blah blah, more
interactions
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Drobot, Hayden, Gruntfest, Barnes -Successful
interdisciplinary collaboration as a result of
WASIS I

• Morss Hayden - Qualitative research

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Recognition highlighting WASIS talent
research i.e. Rebecca Morsss Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society articles on
problem definition end-to-end-to-end process
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New conceptual model of false alarms close calls
Connecticut False Evacuation
1999 Oklahoma Tornados
Hurricanes Fran Bertha
December 2004 Tsunami
Red River Flood 1997
Event followed warning as specified
Event occurred but was less severe than warning
Event occurred but was more severe than warning
Warning was issued but event did not occur
Warning was not issued but event occurred
Perfect Warning
Unwarned Event
False Alarm
Model developed by your colleague! Lindsey
Barnes 2004
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Masters thesis of Somer Erickson

• How much time are people in the U.S. under
  tornado warnings?
• How much does tornado warning lead time costs
  each person in the U.S.?
• WE NEED TO DEVELOP NEW MEANINGFUL USEFUL
  METRICS
• (masters work by Somer Erickson -- U. Oklahoma)
  

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SUMMER WASIS groundrules

• New partners -- unknown territory!
• NEW parameters vocabularies
• ACTIVE RESPECTFUL listening talking
• No acronyms
• All ideas are welcome

AGENDA more open to allow SUMMER WASIS
identities to emerge develop for sustainable
activities after our summer camp for smart kids
ends
BE BRAVE
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Seven barriers WASISers confront overcome

• POWERlessness I want to do it but I dont know
  how
• 2. Social science methods are a mystery
• 3. Surveys are not encouraged
• 4. Disciplinary blinders -Im not a
  meteorologist, Im an engineer vice versa

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Barriers WASISers confront overcome

• 5. I cant do it right so I wont do it at all
  Need for Satisficing!
• Its not in my job description
• 7. Old-fashioned metrics - why are forecasts
  valuable now?
• ------Perceive yourself as a charismatic policy
  entrepreneur

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SUMMER WASIS succeeds when we see

• New effective methods
• New experiments move from discipline stovepipes
• Specifically how do we bring social science into
  existing programs research efforts in
  sustainable ways -- NOW not sometime
• Tired of going to workshops where NOTHING lasts-
  - -
• WASISers its up to YOU

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Some SUMMER WASIS measures of success -- Toward
culture change

• A new community of scholars practitioners use
  each others materials! - ideas for
  presentations, publications, proposals
• Examples of new alliances/removed barriers
• Practical new tried methods

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Launching SUMMER WASIS R E C A P

• One full week workshop
• Commitment to Change!
• The BEST the BRIGHTEST

MODEST GOAL CHANGING the culture from WAS to IS
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Remember Margaret Meads words

• Never doubt that a small, group of thoughtful,
  committed group can change the world.
• Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.
• ( of WASISers)

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• Who or what warning agency was most credible
  during the 1993 Midwestern U.S. floods?

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End users 1993 W A S
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End users 2006 still WAS!
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• What did the most influential players look like
  in meteorology prior to 2006 WASIS?

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WAS ISers are NOT the same old guys with new
toys
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The new fiesta SUMMER WAS ISers!
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Fairy tale comes true - Thanks to

• US Weather Research Program
• The National Oceanic Atmospheric
  Administration (NOAA)

The National Center for Atmospheric
Research Linda Mearns, Institute for the Study
of Society the Environment (ISSE) JEFF LAZO
the Societal Impacts Program (SIP)
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After Big Thompson, 30 years of being

• Frustrated at being a social science
• ADD ON
• (religious figure good to hear from once a year
  or so) but no enduring impacts
• Left out of major scientific initiatives
• Being encouraged but kept separate unequal

Burrell Eve go to grad school together many
years later to Australia Slovenia are
co-authors
If only we had more WASISers with us on our
journeys!!!
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• If you have always done it that way, it is
  probably wrong.
• -- Charles Kettering

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WASIS
CULTURE CHANGE
weather society integrated workshops
Changing from what WAS to what IS the future of
integrated weather studies
Now, lets get to work