The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE

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The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support
at LNE

• TEMIS-workshop
• 8/9 October 2007
• on behalf of Mirka Van der Elst
• Flemish Ministry of the Environment, Nature and
  Energy
• (Department LNE)
• Mirka.vanderelst_at_lne.vlaanderen.be
• Tel. [phone]

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Contents

• Tasks of the Department LNE in Flanders
• Flanders in Europe
• Example of a policy related study with the
• BelEUROS model
• Conclusions and Recommendations

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1) Tasks of the Department LNE

1. Policy support of the Flemish Minister of the
   Environment concerning air quality, climate
   change and the effects of environmental pollution
   on human health
2. Elaboration of measures against air pollution by
   e.g. particulate matter, NO2, ozone and heavy
   metals
3. Specific measures for specific target groups in
   Flanders, such as the different industrial
   sectors, traffic and transportation, energy
   production, agriculture,
4. Coordination of the Flemish activities in
   international agreements, e.g. the National
   Emission Ceilings (NEC) for NOx, SO2, NMVOCs and
   NH3 and the emission reduction targets for
   greenhouse gases

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2) Flanders - Europe PM2.5
Source IIASA - EMEP
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3) Attainment of EU Air Quality Levels NO2
annual mean concentration
Since 2001 increase in NO2 due to higher
O3-background and higher NO2/NO-ratio in traffic
emissions ? problems with EU limit value
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3) NO2 in Belgium attainment analysis 2005 -
2010 2015 using CLE emission scenario
Annualmean (µg/m³)
2010
2005
Calculation of background concentrations with
BelEUROS model
2015
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3) Attainability of NO2 limit values in Belgian
cities
Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³
Street Increment (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ ()
Annual mean (narrow busy streets) µg/m³
Year

•  
• 2005 30 - 40 25 55 -
  65
• 2010 25 - 35 25 50 - 60
  
• 2015 22.5 - 32.5 20 42.5 - 52.5
  

EU mean annual limit value for NO2 40 µg/m3 ()
Air pollution at street level, EEA technical
report 1/2006 Limit value might be attained in
urban background locations but not in busy
streets, even not in 2015
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3) PM10 in Belgium attainment analysis 2005 -
2010 2015 using CLE emission scenario
Annualmean (µg/m³)
2005
2010
Calculation of background concentrations with
BelEUROS model
2015
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3) Attainability of PM10 limit values in Belgian
cities
Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³
Street Increment (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ ()
Number of days daily limit value gt50
Annual mean (narrow busy streets) µg/m³
Year

•  
• 2005 30 - 35 10 40 - 45 73 - 94
  
• 2010 27.5 - 32.5 10
  37.5 - 42.5 62 - 83
• 2015 25 - 30 5 30 - 35 31 - 52
  

EU limit values annual limit mean value 40
µg/m3, daily limit
value 35 days with exceedances () Air
pollution at street level, EEA technical report
1/2006 Annual mean limit might be attained in
part of busy streets, daily limit value will not
be attained in most streets, even not in 2015
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3) PM2.5 in Belgium attainment analysis 2005 -
2010 2015 using CLE emission scenario
Annualmean (µg/m³)
2005
2010
Calculation of background concentrations with
BelEUROS model
2015
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3) Attainability of PM2.5 limit values in Belgian
cities
Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³
Street Increment (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ ()
Annual mean (narrow busy streets) µg/m³
Year

•  
• 2005 22.5 - 25 8 30.5 -
  33
• 2010 17.5 - 22.5 8
  25.5 - 30.5
• 2015 15 - 20 4 19 - 24

planned EU limit value annual mean value 25
µg/m3 () Air pollution at street level, EEA
technical report 1/2006 Annual mean limit might
be attained in busy streets, but only in 2015
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4) Conclusions and recommendations for the
further work

• Conclusion
• Long range transport of air pollutants
  influences the background concentrations of e.g.
  O3, NO2 and PM10 in Belgium. Long range transport
  may even play a role in the non-attainment of EU
  limit values for certain pollutants.
• Recommendation
• Improve the representation of long range
  transport of air pollutants in the BelEUROS model
  by using more realistic boundary conditions,
  especially for O3, NO2 and PM10.

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Information

• More information on research projects carried out
  by order of LNE can be found on website
  http//www.lne.be/themas/luchtverontreiniging