Assessment of Energy Related Risks Boris Dodonov

1
Assessment of Energy Related Risks Boris Dodonov

•  14th Ukrainian-German Economic SymposiumKiev,
  April 16, 2002

2
1. Insufficient domestic energy resources and
Russian oil and gas transit to Western Europe

• Imported primary energy resources form 45 in
  total energy consumption
• Energy imports reach 40 of total merchandise
  imports (17 of GDP)
• Fees for gas and oil transit in 2000 amounted to
  USD 1.7 bn (5 of GDP)

3
Energy Intensity
4
Structure of energy supply in Ukraine and Germany
in 1998
Source IEA
5
Sources for risks for the current account gas
sector

• Declining gas transit volumes
• Completion Yamal-1 pipeline
• Blue Stream pipeline construction
• Construction a bypass Kobrin Velke Kapushany
• Kind of settlements
• Settlements between Gazprom and Naftogaz
• Settlements with Turkmenistan and Itera

6
Sources for risks for the current account oil
industry

• Oil consumption growth as a consequence of
• Further economic growth
• Turnover increase in transport sector
• Structural changes within economy

7
Summary of possible developments in energy
markets and their impact on the current account
(USD m)
8
Policy recommendations

• Switch to monetary transactions with foreign
  partners
• Reduction of energy intensity
• Enhancing the reliability of the transit network
  
• Diversification of energy imports