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Title: Seminar Presentation on Conflict


1
Seminar Presentation on Conflict
  • Ayse Kudat
  • Social Assessment
  • 2002

2
SUMMARY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE TEAM EFFORT ON CONFLICT
ANALYSES
  • Knowledge Management for SSN
  • Web-site search and links
  • Bank-wide web search/links
  • Mining sector conflicts
  • Water sector conflicts
  • Original publications
  • Summaries/Overheads
  • Training seminars
  • Analytical implications for SU
  • SA focus on benefits sharing
  • Social risk analyses for targeting poverty
    interventions
  • Dynamic analyses of stakeholder groups
  • Re-focus on social mobilization/social capital
    and social identity

A slide presentation by Ayse Kudat, with support
of Bulent Ozbilgin and Cem Gelgin
3
Global Trends in Violent Conflict 1946-1999
Gurr, et al. Peace and Conflict, 2001
4
Trends in Violent Political and Ethnic Conflict
1946-1999
The extend of warfare among and within states
lessened by nearly half in the first decade after
the Cold War, but intrastate conflict has hugely
risen in 50 years
5
Regional Trends in Magnitudes of Violent Societal
Conflict
Western Democracies and Japan
Few Western states had violent societal conflicts
during the second half of the 20th century.
Socialist Bloc and Successor States
Ethnic wars that began in the post-Communist
states in the early 1990s were contained by 2000,
except in Chechnya.
6
Regional Trends in Magnitudes of Violent Societal
Conflict
Latin America and the Caribbean
Asia has experienced greater magnitudes of
societal conflict than any other world region.
East, South, and Central Asia
The experience of the Middle East and North
Africa tracks closely the long-term global trends
in societal conflict.
7
Regional Trends in Magnitudes of Violent Societal
Conflict
North Africa and the Middle East
The most serious political conflict in the MNA
region is a terrorist war being fought by Islamic
militants .
Violent ethnic and political rivalries erupted in
Africa south of the Sahara while colonial rule
was ending in the 1960s.
Africa South of the Sahara
The global evidence shows that societal warfare
has declined for much of the last decade. The end
of the Cold War eliminated the superpower rivalry
that fueled many societal conflicts. It also
opened up opportunities for peacemaking by the
UN, regional organizations, and political
activists in war-torn societies. But the African
experience shows that there have been limits to
the effectiveness of post-Cold War policies for
managing internal conflict. Relatively little
international effort has been given to promoting
the solution of African conflicts by comparison
to the political and material resources devoted
to conflict management in the post-Communist
states, the Middle East, and Central America.
8
Poor and non-democratic states are expected to
experience serious warfare in the future.
Global Warfare by Level of Societal Capacity,
1946-1999
9
Peace and Conflict
Western Democracies and Japan
Armed Conflict Indicator The icons are based on
information on armed conflicts being fought in
1999-2000. A red icon highlights countries with a
medium to high magnitude of armed political or
ethnic conflict a yellow icon identifies
countries with either a low level of armed
conflict in 1999-2000 or an armed conflict that
ended between 1996 and 1999. A green icon flags
countries that have had no armed conflict between
1996 and 2000.
Peace-Building Capacity The indicator of
peace-building capacity summarizes the six
specific indicators which is used to rank
countries within each region. Red and yellow
icons on the six specific indicators are evidence
of problems whereas green icons signal a capacity
for managing conflict.
10
Peace and Conflict
Latin America and the Caribbean
Democracy, Transitional Regimes, and Autocracy.
The icons show the nature of a countrys
political institutions in 2000. Red icons
represent autocratic regimes. Yellow icons are
countries with governments in the transitional
zone between autocracy and democracy. Green icons
are full democracies.
Self-Determination The icons take into account
the success or failure of governments in settling
conflicts from 1980 through 2000.Red icons
signify countries challenged by armed conflicts
over self-determination in 2000. Yellow icons
flag countries with one of these two patterns
either (a) non-violent self-determination
movements in 2000 but no track record of
accommodating such movements in the past 20
years or (b) violent self-determination
movements in 2000 and a track record of
accommodating other such movements in the past 20
years. Green icons signify countries that have
successfully managed one or more
self-determination conflicts since 1980.
11
Peace and Conflict
East, South, and Central Asia
Capacity for Peace-Building Societal Resources
The governments of rich societies are better
able to maintain peace and security than are
governments of poor societies. An indicator of
societal energy consumption per capita (averaged
over the last half-century) is used to rank
countries on this indicator. Red icons signify
countries in the lowest quintile. Yellow icons
flag countries in the second and third quintiles,
green icons identify countries in the top 40 in
energy consumption.
Capacity for Peace-Building The Durability of
Political Institutions The icons take into
account the maturity of a countrys system of
government. Red icons highlight countries whose
political institutions in 2000 were established
between 1995 and 1999. Yellow icons register
countries whose polities were established during
the 1985-94 decade. Green icons are used for
countries whose polities were established before
1985.
12
Peace and Conflict
North Africa and Middle East
Good and Bad Neighborhoods Ten politically
relevant neighborhoods are defined West
Africa, North Africa, East Africa, South Africa,
Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, South
America, Central America, and Europe/North
America. Countries with green icons are in
regions with relatively low armed conflict and
mostly democratic governments. Countries with red
icons are in neighborhoods with high armed
conflict and many transitional regimes. Countries
with yellow icons are in regions with middling
armed conflict and mostly autocratic regimes.
13
Peace and Conflict
Socialist Bloc and Successor State
Peace and Conflict 2001 Gurr, Marshall, Khosla.
14
What is conflict?
When does it escalate into armed conflict?
15
Definitions of social conflict
  • Social conflict is a struggle over values or
    claims to status, power, and scarce resources
  • The aims of the conflict groups are not only to
    gain the desired values, but also to neutralize,
    injure, or eliminate rivals.
  • Social conflict encompasses a broad range of
    social phenomena class, racial, religious, and
    communal conflicts riots, rebellions,
    revolutions strikes and civil disorders
    marches, demonstrations, protest gatherings.

Source Anthony Oberschall. Theories of Social
Conflict. Annual Reviews Sociology, 1978,
4291-315.
16
Theory of Social Conflict
  • A comprehensive theory of social conflict
    encompasses
  • The structural sources of social conflict,
    relying on stratification, social change, and
    macro-sociological theories.
  • Conflict-group formation and the mobilization for
    collective action of challenging groups and their
    targets. For this topic, theories of collective
    action, social capital, recruitment,
    participation, commitment, and internal structure
    are useful.
  • The dynamics of conflict processes of
    interaction between conflict groups the forms of
    conflict its magnitude, scope, and duration
    escalation and de-escalation conflict regulation
    and resolution conflict outcomes.

17
There are numerous causes of conflict at all
levels
  • Communication failure
  • Leadership Personality
  • Value differences
  • Cultural differences
  • Ethnic differences
  • Civilization
  • Goal differences
  • Technology Differences
  • Military built-up
  • Lack of cooperation
  • External support
  • Group cohesion
  • Economic competition
  • Military competition
  • Competition over natural resources such as water,
    forests, oil, gems etc.

18
Conditions that encourage/discourage conflict
  • Periods of rapidly expanding opportunities
    followed by slowdown (e.g. US civil rights)
  • Ambiguity about relative power (Vietnam war)
  • Status inconsistency or rank dis-equilibrium
  • Weakening normative consensus
  • Zero-sum thinking
  • Close communication
  • Leader perception of deprivation
  • Consensus about norms
  • Lack of information about Others attainment
  • Physical and psychological segregation
  • Existence of strict status systems
  • Reality or myth of social mobility
  • Physical and social barriers to communication
  • Removal of actual or potential leadership from
    the dissident groups

19
Conflict and Change
  • Conflict inherent/latent
  • Situations that it turns into armed conflict are
    rare
  • Conflict is not always and necessarily
    destructive
  • Rather, it promotes
  • Change
  • Unity
  • Reconciliation,

20
Levels of Conflict/Strategies for Resolution
  • Interpersonal
  • Inter-group
  • Inter-organizational
  • Inter-State
  • Two party
  • Multi-party
  • Contending/Imposing
  • Yielding
  • Problem Solving
  • Combination

21
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SOCIAL SCIENCE LITERATURE
  • Social and political factors have greater value
    in predicting inter-state conflict (Huntington
    1993)
  • Social mobilization, social capital, social
    cohesiveness and collective action are among the
    most important factors in armed conflict onset
    and escalation (Benson and Kugler 1998)
  • It is not static situations or even long lasting
    poverty that cause conflicts to escalate but
    rather changes in the distribution systems
  • Changes in power parity
  • Changes in access to resources
  • Changes in internal and external alliances
  • External interventions (assistance) appear to
    have adverse impacts on escalation (Brecher 1982
    superpower involvement -, UN )
  • Resource scarcity and benefits stream sharing are
    key issues

22
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SOCIAL SCIENCE LITERATURE
  • Strong positive relationship between economic
    inequality and political conflict is challenged
    (Lichback 1989)
  • Extreme inequality of land distribution leads to
    political instability only under specific extreme
    conditions (Russett 1989)
  • Political implications of inequality varies from
    impoverished to affluent nations (Sigelman and
    Simpson, 1989)
  • Inequality and conflict relationship is
    curvilinear (Zimmerman 1989)
  • Understanding conflict escalation requires a
    multi-disciplinary approach (Singer and Small
    1994)
  • Social and cultural variables better predict
    internal conflicts than economic variables
  • Group perceptions matter relative deprivation is
    an important element of conflict. Such
    deprivation is felt more acutely with respect to
    political power and social prestige than income

23
What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus
on?
  • Initiation of country watch based on dynamic
    social risks/conflict propensity analyses
  • Systematic incorporation of social risk analyses
    into PRSP considering conflict reduction
    strategies (CRS) for countries with high
    propensity for conflict
  • Complement/strengthen DECs work for ECA
    countries
  • Develop special capacity within ECA for conflict
    escalation and prolongation issues
  • Provide broader learning opportunities for SU
    staff to strengthen their analytical capacity for
    conflict analyses

24
What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus
on? (contd)
  • Concentrate emphasis on local capacity building
    for conflict analyses (SSN) and theory of
    conflict prevention practice
  • Give CA water conflicts renewed operational
    focus help integrate conflict analyses to
    country water sector strategy work
  • For guarantee operations dealing with renewable
    energy, a new emphasis on benefits sharing
  • Complement analyses of vulnerable groups with
    opposition (rebellion groups) introduce less
    static concepts to social group analyses to
    include social mobilization of opposition, of
    cultural,ethnic and other cohesive groups
  • Strengthen emphasis on accountability with
    effective democracy building
  • Better bridge social stability, inter-group trust
    and locally negotiated outcomes (trust building
    with user associations, etc.,)

25
What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus
on? (contd)
  • Re-evaluate social dynamics of border issues
    and ethnicity and follow up on earlier work
    carried out by the SU for the Balkans and Central
    Asia
  • Re-assess role of cultural factors, especially
    religion, in social realities of ECA/CA countries
    for PRSP and CAS work
  • Start a new generation of SAs that better focus
    on building social capital, trust, social
    conflict (Follow up on Kosova work, engage in
    proposed Tadjikistan agr, Azerbaijan water
    sector)

26
Conflict Prevention
  • Benefits Stream Sharing
  • Better analyses of benefits sharing Who gets the
    rents, how equitable? How likely to increase
    conflict?
  • Better understanding of external interference
  • Current private sector practice share benefits
    from natural resource extraction
  • Local focus omni-present government as assumed
    by WB versus local
  • Ensure local ownership and trust
  • World Bank involvement possible through MIGA
    guarantees
  • Analyses
  • Social risk reduction does not mean poverty
    reduction
  • Stagnant versus dynamic factors needs analysis
  • Effective democracies
  • Social capital and social mobilization
  • CAS/PRSP Culture, power, social dynamics,
    implications of these

27
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31
Modern sociological theory identifies two broad
categories of conflict
  • Endogeneous Conflict Sources of change are from
    within a society
  • Inherent possibilities of change (Sorokin)
  • Conflict over the distribution of desirables--
    wealth, power and prestige within a society
    (Marx, Mosca, Mills)
  • Conflict of Values (cumulative effects of
    innovation, technological revolution, sexual
    revolution, environmental crisis)
  • Conflict of authority between order givers and
    takers (Dahrendorf)
  • Conflict between the individual and society
    (Thomas)
  • Exogeneous Conflict Sources of change are
    between systems
  • Wars (no comprehensive theory of war as a social
    phenomena)
  • Cultural invasion (westernization, modernization,
    media)
  • Conflict of Ideology (fundamentalism, capitalism)

32
APPROACHES TO CONFLICT ANALYSES
  • There are two distinct traditions of conflict
    theory
  • in the classical works
  • The power relations tradition of political
    philosophy
  • The tradition of competitive struggle in
    classical
  • economics.
  • Sociological conflict theory is largely a
    synthesis of
  • these traditions with primary focus on the
    unequal
  • distribution of rewards in society (Marx, Mills,
    Dahrendorf,
  • Coser)

33
Major Proposition of Conflict Theories
  • Society is not a system in equilibrium but a
    nebulous structure of imperfectly coordinated
    elements
  • Change and conflict are continuous and normal
    inherent predilections to change vary in scope,
    nature, intensity and degree
  • Every society experiences at every moment social
    conflict
  • Every element in a society contributes to its
    change
  • Every society rests on constrain of some of its
    members by others
  • Social universe is the setting within which the
    conflict of life are acted out

34
VIOLENCE
  • Direct violence --killing and beating--happens in
    interpersonal and inter-group situation
  • The capacity for violence is institutionalized in
    prison systems, concentration camps, military
    forces and militia
  • Structural violence--poverty, hunger,repression
    and social alienation--is associated with uneven
    life chances and is built into most society
  • Oppression and discrimination are symptoms of
    structural violence
  • Absence of direct violence is no guarantee for
    lack of structural violence not all forms of
    structural violence leads of direct violence

35
PEACE RESEARCH
  • Peace research searches for knowledge to end
    violence and domination. It is trans-disciplinary.
  • Normative goals of peace research are different
    from those of national security or war studies.
  • Scientific approaches may focus on mathematical
    equations for predicting arms race (Richardson),
    simulations and cognitive analyses to understand
    crisis decision making , statistical analyses
    correlating outbreak of war with other factors.
    The aim is to establish causal relationships
    between all factors involved to project future
    trends.
  • Interpretive analyses the meaning of peace is
    investigated in the context of wider social and
    cultural structures, relations and processes
    (Avruch, Foucault). Focus also on the meaning of
    peace from the perspective of the people who are
    affected by violence.

36
VIOLENCE
  • Cultural violence can be a source of other types
    of violence
  • Symbols and events are used to create barriers
    among peoples
  • Certain cultural elements are linked to direct
    and structural violence through their value
    justification and legitimization
  • In the hierarchical social values of modern
    society some people are more valued than others

37
EMPIRICALLY TESTED INDICATORS OF INTERNAL CONFLICT
  • Power parity of state and the opposition ()
  • Level of democracy (tradition and institutions)
    (-)
  • Tradition of violent conflict, social
    mobilization ()
  • Ideology differences ()
  • Inequity in the distribution of power and
    authority ()
  • Unequal access to renewable and non-renewable
    differences
  • Duration of conflict and access to arms ()
  • Ethnic nature of disputes ( likelihood of
    recurrence)

38
EMPRICALLY TESTED INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL CONFLICT
  • Cultural/civilization differences
  • Economic regionalism (consolidating
    civilization blocks)
  • Demographic factors ---population density (-),
    population growth ()
  • Military expenditures ()
  • Power parity ()
  • Alliances between states (-)
  • Alliances between opposition and support to
    opposition from external group ()
  • Economic interdependence and terms of trade (-),
    high debt rate (-)
  • Effective resource (natural resources, energy)
    utilization (-)
  • Multiple border relationships ()

39
Interstate Conflict
  • Time Magnitude of War
  • Based on 315 wars that ended between 1820-1952,
    containing some 780 pairs of opposed
    belligerents, several key findings emerged.
  • Low probability for most conflicts leading to war
  • All the wars ongoing in any year, 24 percent will
    end in that year.
  • High death rate tends to shorten wars and
    accelerate peacemaking.
  • Smaller wars are very much more common than
    larger ones.
  • Wars appear to arise independently, but to spread
    contagiously, through alliance structures, to
    neighbors, and otherwise.

David Wilkinson Deadly Quarrels Lewis F.
Richardson and the Statistical Study of War
40
INTERSTATE CONFLICT
  • Wars tend to be simple rather than complex
  • Wars with more participants are less frequent
  • Wars with more belligerent pairs are less
    frequent than wars with few belligerent pairs
  • The least complex war (one to one) is the most
    common type
  • There are nonetheless a few wars that involve
    many fighting pairs which tend to be unusually
    long and unusually bloody.

41
INTERSTATE CONFLICT
  • Economic causes of war are frequent but of many
    types
  • War today may be the price of the transition to
    prosperity and peace tomorrow
  • Militant ideology is a cause of war.
  • Ideological disarmament is tied to peacemaking
  • The propensity of any two groups to fight
    increases as social differences between them (in
    language, religion, race, and cultural style)
    increase

42
Conflict Management Long and Short Term Issues
  • Major issue Should one focus on short term
    negotiations to end conflict or remove deeper
    causes (Ross and Rothman 1999)
  • Short term negotiations problem-solving exercise
    to end conflict sooner than later. Assume deeper
    causes cannot be addressed in the presence of
    violence (Starr 1999)
  • Dialoguistsbuilding understanding, finding
    deep-rooted causes and developing paradigmatic
    shifts (Tidwell 1998 Saunders 1999)
  • Certain defined patterns of escalation are more
    supportive of mediation than others (Simon 1999)
  • Theories of practice of ethnic conflict
    resolution differ in the link that they
    conceptualize between an initiatives specific
    activities and the settlement of the wider
    conflict (Bloomfield 1997)

43
Conflict Management Long and Short Term Issues
  • Both short term solutions and long term dialogue
    can fail as was the case in Tadjikistan (Zartman
    2001)
  • Numberless efforts in Middle East Peace process
    also fell victim to inability to transfer
    official efforts onto the popular level (Saunders
    1999)
  • Dialogue and negotiation success depends on
    process which is difficult to transfer downward
    to civil society the process is an individual
    experience and not transferable
  • Continued conflict makes the impact of both
    negotiation and dialogue more difficult (outside
    impacts the inside when the expectation is for
    the inside to affect the outside)

44
The Clash of Civilizations?
  • Huntington argues that ... the fundamental
    source of conflict in this new world will not be
    primarily ideological or primarily economic. The
    great divisions among humankind and the
    dominating source of conflict will be cultural.
  • A civilization is a cultural entity. Villages,
    regions, ethic groups, nationalities, religious
    groups, all have distinct cultures at different
    levels of cultural heterogeneity.
  • A civilization is the highest cultural grouping
    of people and the broadest level of cultural
    identity people have short of that which
    distinguishes humans from other species.
  • Civilizations are dynamic they rise and fall,
    they divide and merge.

In the future, the world will be shaped in large
measure by the interactions among major
civilizations Western, Confucian, Islamic,
Japanese, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American
and possibly African.
Source Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of
Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.
45
Reasons why conflict will occur along fault lines
separating civilizations
  • Differences among civilizations are not only
    real they are basic
  • Interactions between people of several
    civilizations are increasing as does awareness of
    difference among civilizations
  • The process of economic modernization and social
    change throughout the world are separating people
    from longstanding local identities.
  • The growth of civilization-consciousness is
    enhanced by the dual role of the West. On one
    hand, the West is at a peak of power. At the
    same time, however and perhaps as a result, a
    return to the roots phenomenon is occurring among
    the non-Western civilizations.
  • Cultural characteristics and differences are less
    mutable and hence less easily compromised and
    resolved than political and economic ones. Even
    more than ethnicity, religion discriminates
    sharply and exclusively among people.
  • Economic regionalism is increasing and
    reinforcing civilization consciousness.

Source Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of
Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.
46
What will happen????????????
  • Conflict between civilizations will supplant
    ideological and other forms of conflict as the
    dominant global form of conflict
  • International relations, historically a game
    played out within Western civilization, will
    increasingly be de-Westernized and become a game
    in which non-Western civilizations are actors and
    not simply objects
  • Successful political, security and economic
    international institutions are more likely to
    develop within civilizations than across
    civilizations
  • Conflicts between groups in different
    civilizations will be more frequent, more
    sustained and more violent than conflicts between
    groups in the same civilization
  • Violent conflict between groups in different
    civilizations are the most likely and most
    dangerous source of escalation that could lead to
    global wars.

Source Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of
Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.
47
What can be done ????????????
  • In the short term it is clearly in the interest
    of the West to promote greater cooperation and
    unity within its own civilization, particularly
    between its European and North American
    components
  • To incorporate into the West societies in Eastern
    Europe and Latin America whose cultures are close
    to those of the West
  • To promote and maintain cooperative relations
    with Russia and Japan
  • To prevent escalation of local inter-civilization
    conflicts into major inter-civilization wars to
    limit the expansion of the military strength of
    Confucian and Islamic states
  • To moderate the reduction of Western military
    capabilities and maintain military superiority in
    East and Southwest Asia
  • To exploit differences and conflicts among
    Confucian and Islamic states and to support other
    civilizations groups sympathetic to Western
    values and interests
  • To strengthen international institutions that
    reflect and legitimate Western interests and
    values and to promote the involvement of
    non-Western states in those institutions.

Source Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of
Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.
48
Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of
Internal Violence
  • Relative parity of resources between the
    government and the opposition lead to higher
    levels of violence
  • Democratic countries with highly competitive and
    participatory institutions are able to mitigate
    violent conflict within their borders
  • With domestic politics, as with international
    politics, the escalation of conflict to violent
    conflict is rare
  • The severity of violence decreases as the level
    of political efficiency of the government rises.
  • Faced with violent opposition, an effective
    government responds in kind
  • As the capabilities of potential rebels increase
    compared to those of the government, the severity
    of violence increases

Source Michelle Benson and Jacek Kugler. Power
Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal
Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42
No. 2, April 1998.
49
Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of
Internal Violence
  • External aid is most useful in societies with
    weak political systems (eg Haiti), where limited
    interventions are successful, but it will have
    little effect in conflicts within organized
    societies (e.g. Vietnam, Afghanistan), where the
    combatants are fully mobilized
  • Democracy by itself is not significant in
    decreasing conflict
  • Super-democracies can reduce the levels of
    internal domestic violence
  • Democracies that are not fully institutionalized
    fare no better than autocratic regimes

50
Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of
Internal Violence
  • Politically efficient governments are more likely
    to avert internal challenges
  • Early, effective interventions is an effective
    means to avoid internal violence
  • This option is not available to ineffective
    governments that can most easily be challenged
    even by inefficient opponents
  • Ineffective democracies struggling for reform are
    only as likely as authoritarian governments of
    equivalent levels of efficiency to repulse
    challenges by opponents
  • Interventions in support of inefficient
    democratic systems might be a viable option
    (Haiti)
  • Interventions to alter political structures that
    are already efficient (Tienanmen Square) might
    be counterproductive

Source Michelle Benson and Jacek Kugler. Power
Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal
Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42
No. 2, April 1998.
51
Empirical Factors and Their Effects in
Determining Severity of Internal Violence
  • Severity of violence within a nation at a certain
    time ()
  • Relative political extraction (-)
  • Relative political extraction of the opposition
    ()
  • Time Index () Level of violence increases as
    weapons improve
  • Level of democracy (not significant, by itself)
  • High level of democracy (-)
  • Joint effect of relative political extraction and
    democracy (-)

Source Michelle Benson and Jacek Kugler. Power
Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal
Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42
No. 2, April 1998.
52
Empirical variables used in determining conflict
escalation
  1. Power parity (-)
  2. Relative power of the weaker state divided by the
    relative power of the stronger state
  3. Status quo evaluations in terms of alliance
    similarity to the dominant power (-)
  4. Joint democracy (-)
  5. Alliance of the state (-)
  6. Economic interdependence calculated relative to
    national income (-)
  7. Economic development (-)

Source William Reed. A Unified Statistical Model
of Conflict Onset and Escalation. American
Journal of Political Science, Vol. 44, No. 1.
January 2000.
53
Empirical factors used in determining major power
intervention in international conflicts
  • Military Balance of Target versus Attacker ()
  • Level of Security Threat for Target of Threat ()
  • Military Balance of Major Power and Target versus
    Attacker
  • Major Power Armed Conflict with Other States (-)
  • Armed Conflict within Major Power (-)
  • Military Ties between Major Power and Target of
    Threat ()
  • Common Adversary between Major Power and Target
    of Threat ()
  • Strategic Location of Target ()
  • Similarity of Regime between Major Power and
    Target of Threat ()
  • Prospects for Victory in Upcoming Election (-)

Source Paul K. Huth. Major Power Intervention in
International Crises, 1918-1988. Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 6, December
1998. Sage Publications.
54
Intra-personal, local, intra-state, inter-state,
global
Conflict is a natural and typical phenomenon in
every type of human relationships, at every level
  • Conflicts at every level have significant common
    characteristics and dynamics it makes sense to
    examine them together and comparatively.
  • People get involved in conflicts because their
    interests or their values are challenged, or
    because their needs are not met.
  • There are several basic human needs that are
    especially pertinent to conflict and conflict
    resolution
  • Recognition
  • Development (and self-actualization)
  • Security
  • Identity
  • Bonding, and finally
  • Targets to project hate.

Conflict resolution is a truly multidisciplinary
field. It is an amalgam of psychology,
philosophy, political science, sociology,
anthropology, law etc.
55
Ethnic conflicts, especially those between
ethnic minorities and majorities tend to be
intractable.
They can be settled for a certain period of
time, but they can rarely be resolved.
  • Parties in such conflicts often block the
    satisfaction of each other's basic human needs.
  • Minorities believe that their identity is not
    recognized, that they are given less
    opportunities for development, and that their
    culture (and sometimes their existence) is under
    threat.
  • Majorities may also perceive minorities as a
    threat to their security, especially if the
    minority leaders cooperate with enemy countries.
  • The leadership/ elites of both minorities and
    majorities, tend to be more fanatical, more
    biased than the average minority or majority
    member.

It is difficult to help deal constructively with
polarized ethnic conflicts through external
mediation. Outside support to groups prolong
conflict.
56
Forms of Ethnic Conflict Termination
  • Methods for eliminating differences
  • Genocide
  • Forced mass-population transfers
  • Partition/Secession
  • Integration/Assimilation
  • Methods for managing differences
  • Hegemonic control
  • Arbitration
  • Cantonization/federalization
  • Consociationalism (power-sharing)

57
6 different typologies of conflicts
According to issues in contention
According to adversary characteristics
Self-perception Clarity of social boundary markers
Number of adversaries Integration and
interdependence Domination
According to relationship of adversaries
58
6 ways in which conflicts vary (contd)
According to the social system or context of
which they are a part
According to the means by which they are conducted
Degree of regulation Level of severity
Who wins the struggle More integrated or more
separated Renewed struggle or resolution
According to outcomes
59
Paths to Conflict Termination
  • Non-Negotiated Path
  • Externally imposed settlement
  • One-sided capitulation/suppression
  • Convergence
  • Settlement by implicit bargaining
  • Withdrawal
  • Extermination/expulsion
  • Negotiated Path
  • One-sided maximization approach
  • Problem-solving approaches

60
Negotiation Characteristics may Vary
  • Institutionalization of negotiation procedures
  • Scale of negotiations (number of parties)
  • Scope of negotiations (significance and number of
    issues considered)
  • Isolation of negotiation sessions (which
    negotiation channels)
  • Privacy (degree of confidentiality)
  • Conflict Setting
  • Issues in contention
  • Relative importance of interests and values
  • Timing

61
Conflict is more likely when there are
demographic pressures, although this is unlikely
to be the main reason for conflict
  • Population growth pressures have a significant
    impact on the likelihood that the state could
    become involved in military conflict.
  • Significant military capability might be
    necessary for population pressures to lead to
    conflict, and low technology countries are more
    subject to population pressures and conflict
    involvement than their more advanced peers.
  • Advanced technology may mitigate some deleterious
    effects of high population growth.
  • There is little or no evidence that such growth
    makes a state more likely to be the initiator of
    that conflict or make that conflict more likely
    to escalate to war.
  • Overcrowding has a significant impact on state
    decision making. However, states do not engage
    in conflict in order to acquire new land to
    support the burgeoning population. Thus, there
    are substantial limits to the validity of
    extending overcrowding arguments to the context
    of interstate relations.

Source Jaroslav Tir Paul F. Diehl. Demographic
Pressure and Interstate Conflict Linking
Population Growth and Density to Militarized
Disputes and Wars, 1930-89. Journal of Peace
Research, vol. 35, no. 3, 1998. Sage
Publications.
62
Empirical variables used in determining the
relationship between population movements and
conflict
  • Population growth percentage change ()
  • Population density ()
  • Military expenditures ()
  • The level of development and resource usage as
    measured by energy consumption figures (-)
  • Geographic opportunity as determined by the
    number of states who share international borders
    ()
  • Major or minor power status of countries ()

Source Jaroslav Tir Paul F. Diehl. Demographic
Pressure and Interstate Conflict Linking
Population Growth and Density to Militarized
Disputes and Wars, 1930-89. Journal of Peace
Research, vol. 35, no. 3, 1998. Sage
Publications.
63
Humanitarian emergencies are characterized by
warfare, displacement, hunger, and disease
  • Most literature uses geopolitical and ethnic
    approaches to explain the recent increase in
    complex humanitarian emergencies.
  • Although relevant, these are incomplete in
    analyzing the factors that are pivotal in shaping
    and triggering conflicts in developing countries.
  • Sources of emergencies are multiple
  • Stagnation and decline in real GDP
  • A high ratio of military expenditures to national
    income
  • A tradition of violent conflict
  • High income inequality, and
  • Slow growth in average food production
  • Relative deprivation is crucial in escalation of
    humanitarian emergencies.
  • People feel deprived of something they had but
    subsequently lost or when others have gained
    relative to them. Consequently, a short-term
    income reduction is more important than
    protracted income decline or stagnation.
  • Relative deprivation spurs social discontent and
    sometimes anger, which provides motivation for
    potential collective violence.

Source Juha Auvinen, E. Wayne Nafziger. The
Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies. Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43 No. 3, June 1999.
Sage Publications.
64
Empirical Variables Used in Determining Sources
of Human Emergencies
  • A composite indicator made up of battle deaths
    and refugees per population ()
  • Number of deaths from domestic violence ()
  • Inflation ()
  • Annual real GDP growth (-)
  • GNP per capita (-)
  • Annual growth of food production per capita (-)
  • Gini index of income concentration ()
  • Military expenditures per GNP ()
  • Use of IMF credit as a percentage of GNP (-)

Data from 124 countries
Source Juha Auvinen, E. Wayne Nafziger. The
Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies. Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43 No. 3, June 1999.
Sage Publications.
65
Conditions under which major powers intervene in
conflicts determine the outcome of the conflict
  • Military intervention of major powers can have a
    decisive impact on the outcome of international
    crises involving other states
  • The probability of military intervention by a
    major power will decrease
  • As the capacity of a threatened state to defend
    itself militarily increases
  • As the severity of the threat of military attack
    against a target state increases
  • If leaders of the major power are about to or
    have already committed large-scale military
    forces to another international dispute
  • If leaders of the major power are about to or
    have already committed large-scale military
    forces to the suppression of domestic political
    opposition
  • If the incumbent regimes chances of victory in
    upcoming elections are quite favorable
  • The probability of military intervention by a
    major power will increase
  • As the relative military strength of the
    coalition supporting the threatened state
    increases
  • If the threatened state is of military-strategic
    value to the major power
  • If the major power and threatened state share the
    same type of political system that differs from
    the regime of the challenger state

Source Paul K. Huth. Major Power Intervention in
International Crises, 1918-1988. Journal of
Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 6, December
1998. Sage Publications.
66
Different Approaches to Understanding Conflict
Why Men Rebel
  • Peoples sense of their value plays a central
    role in the birth of violent conflict. The urge
    to rebel is strongly linked to a societys
    perceived stock of values.
  • If groups view economic, social or political
    value as a fixed sum, violent conflict can occur
    very easily.
  • Although many values that determine a group or
    individuals welfare (respect, wealth, attention
    from others) are inherently flexible and easily
    created, values such as political power exist in
    limited quantities.
  • Values such as status can exert a powerful
    influence on value capability depending on
    whether groups in a society perceive them as a
    fixed sum or as the product of relationship.
  • Economic value plays a critical role in
    determining peoples value capability. Men can
    be deprived of political influence and social
    status, but the lack minimum economic resources
    threatens their very existence.
  • Ideological coherence, or a groups belief and
    adherence to common norms governing social
    interaction, is a powerful factor in conflict.

Source Ted Robert Gurr. Why Men Rebel.
Princeton, 1970.
67
A Causal Model of Determinants of Conflict
Balance of Dissident to Coercive Regime Control
Intensity of Relative Deprivation
Intensity of Normative Justifications for
Political violence
Intensity of Utilitarian Justifications for
Political Violence
Secondary Variables



POTENTIAL FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE (political
discontent)
POTENTIAL FOR COLLECTIVE VIOLENCE (discontent)
MAGNITUDE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE
Primary Variables


Societal Variables


Balance of dissident to Regime Institutional
Support
Scope of Relative Deprivation
Scope of Justifications for Political violence
Secondary Variables
Source Ted Robert Gurr. Why Men Rebel.
Princeton, 1970.
68
DEC (World Bank) Research on Conflict Propensity
  • Develop a set of analytical indicators that will
    facilitate the incorporation of conflict analysis
    in decision-making in allocation of World Bank
    funds
  • Four sets of conflict indicators identified to
    measure the propensity of a country with respect
    to conflict
  • Identification of conflict-prone countries
  • Conflict intensity indicators to assess the
    extent and escalation potential of ongoing
    conflicts
  • Performance indicators to measure the likelihood
    of post-conflict countries successful
    peace-building and economic development
  • Impact assessment tools to ensure that Bank
    programs do not exacerbate conflict
  • These correspond to two broad categories of
    conflict determinants
  • Underlying root causes such as historical and
    structural determinants
  • Conflict-induced risks that pertain to
    post-conflict countries

Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000.
69
DEC Research and Simulation Model is Limited to
countries outside ECA
  • Use a set of quantifiable indicators to estimate
  • The probability of civil-war outbreak and
  • The probability of war recurrence for each
    country
  • There is no simple approach to combine
    qualitative and quantitative methods
  • Historical data not available for qualitative
    methods
  • Integration of non-existing historical data into
    the dataset for simulation is not possible
  • If Bank country teams code these, they may be
    largely influenced by the quantitative indicators
    in the dataset, creating problems in analysis
  • Some indicators (degree of ethnic fragmentation,
    level of democracy, extent of national
    reconciliation) are reflections of qualitative
    variables

Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000.
70
Core Set of Conflict Indicators Regional
Comparisons, 1960-1998
Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000 Poverty/GDP Growth.
71
Country Classification by At-Risk Indicators
Most Central Asian and Balkan countries not
included in analysis
There is potential for collaboration between
Social Unit and DEC
Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000.
72
Core Indicators for Conflict Analysis
Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000.
73
Type of Analysis, Indicators, and Banks
Instruments
Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000.
74
Uses of DEC Simulation in Practice
  • Analysis can be used to estimate the likelihood
    of conflict in a country, given variations in
    policy decisions and likely results
  • Analysis can also be used in post-conflict
    reconstruction environment to assess the
    likelihood of the country falling back into
    conflict
  • Majority of Central Asia, Eastern Europe and
    Baltic countries are not included in the research
  • Need to adopt the research to specific conditions
    in these countries
  • How can we decrease propensity for conflict?
  • Pre-conflict policy
  • Pre-conflict lending
  • Include non-economic factors in PRSP

Source Conflict Analysis Conflict Indicators
A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research
Project. August 2000.
75
World Bank has been active in Post-Conflict
Reconstruction
  • The World Bank has increased its lending to
    post-conflict countries by more than 800 percent
    since 1980, with operations in every region and
    sector
  • The Banks working presence can be critical in
    the early stages of post-conflict reconstruction,
    especially in external aid coordination
  • Bank reconstruction has provided effective
    macroeconomic stabilization
  • Bank has also provided strong and effective
    support for rebuilding physical infrastructure
  • Although the Bank does not have a comparative
    advantage in demining
  • Bank experience in restoring human and social
    capital has been mixed.
  • In Bosnia, social sector work was supported but
    that seems to be an exception
  • There is recent expansion of work into support
    for de-mobilization and the reintegration of
    ex-combatants into the society
  • Effectiveness of Bank monitoring has been varied

Source Operations Evaluation Department (OED).
World Bank. 1998.
76
OED recommended a number of steps to clarify Bank
involvement in conflict
  • Clarify Bank Policy
  • Transform existing framework into a firm policy
  • Build on and Develop Comparative Strengths
  • Leverage advantage in aid coordination and
    advisory services
  • Pursue essential policies with greater balance
    and develop cost-effective strategies for
    education and health
  • Use early ESW to improve social project design
  • Refine Bank Practices
  • Staffing of post-conflict country teams
  • Allocate budget for monitoring and evaluation
  • Move Toward Greater Flexibility in Programming
    and Design
  • More fluid design than blueprint
  • Rely more on APLs
  • Promote Equitable Development
  • Address emerging distributional imbalances BEFORE
    they turn into conflict

Source Operations Evaluation Department (OED).
World Bank. 1998.
77
What else can the Bank do in Peace-building?
Play a vital role by fostering conditions conduciv
e to successful negotiations
Promote trust and be sensitive to timing issues
Bank staff could advise in negotiations
Offer advice on development dimensions of peace
accord options
Bank staff could draw on previous peace-building
experiences-KM
Rehabilitation in Ethiopia, needs assessment and
organizational response in Bosnia
Bank activities could be politically realistic
Recognize the importance of other facets of the
post-conflict development such as reform of
governance, justice etc.
Include strengthening civil institutions in
peace-building goals.
Allocate adequate resources to ensure complete
recovery especially for vulnerable groups
Source The Transition from War to Peace. Chapter
3 Peacebuilding Strategies. World Bank.
78
Environmental scarcity may create conflicts
  • Environmental scarcities are plausible causes of
    violent conflict
  • Depletion and pollution of fresh water supplies
  • Degradation and removal of forests
  • Depletion of fisheries
  • Degradation and loss of good agricultural land
  • Greenhouse-induced climate change
  • Stratospheric ozone depletion
  • Populations in developing countries are already
    suffering from shortages of water, agricultural
    land, forests and fish
  • Population growth and unequal distribution of
    resources also contribute to environmental
    conflict
  • Frequency of this kind of conflict will probably
    jump sharply in the next decade as scarcities
    rapidly worsen.

Source Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental
Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from
Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1.
Summer 1994.
79
Interaction of Sources of Environmental Scarcity
Resource depletion and population growth cause
unequal resource access
Resource Capture
Decrease in quality and quantity of renewable
resources
Increased environmental scarcity
Population growth
Unequal resource access
Unequal resource access and population growth
cause resource degredation and depletion.
Ecological Marginalization
Decrease in quality and quantity of renewable
resources
Increased environmental scarcity
Population growth
Unequal resource access
Source Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental
Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from
Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1.
Summer 1994.
80
Inter-state versus Internal Conflicts due to
Environmental Scarcity
  • Environmental scarcity causes large population
    movements, which in turn may cause group identity
    conflicts
  • Contextual factors important in defining reasons
    of population movements
  • Both push and pull factors are important in
    migration
  • Migrants often need backing of a state before
    they can cause conflict
  • Scarcities of renewable resources such as forests
    and croplands do not often cause resource wars
    between states
  • States have fought more over non-renewable than
    renewable resources for two reasons
  • Petroleum and mineral resources can be more
    directly converted into state power
  • The countries that are most dependent on
    renewable resources also tend to be poor,
    lessening their capability for aggression
  • The renewable resource most likely to stimulate
    inter-state resource war is WATER
  • Riparian problems
  • Huge dams are especially disruptive relocation,
    clashes with local groups, ethnic minorities and
    vulnerable groups affected are commonplace

Source Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental
Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from
Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1.
Summer 1994.
81
Environmental scarcity increases economic
deprivation and disrupts key social institutions
  • Resource degradation and depletion often affect
    economic productivity in poor countries and
    contribute to deprivation
  • Environmental scarcity, large population
    movements and economic decline appear to sharply
    weaken the capacity and legitimacy of state
  • Environmental scarcity increases financial and
    political demands on governments
  • Revenues to local and national governments
    decline
  • Challengers to governments will have greater
    power if their grievances are articulated and
    actions are coordinated
  • Factors that can influence both grievance and
    opportunity include the leadership and ideology
    of challenger groups
  • Rapid growth of poor urban areas may have a
    double effect People can communicate more
    easily this may reinforce grievances and
    increase the power of challenger groups

Source Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental
Scarcities and Violent Conflict Evidence from
Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1.
Summer 1994.
82
Water and resource scarcity in Central Asia is
already causing conflict
  • The Unit is in a unique position to provide
    assistance in resource-based conflict in Central
    Asian countries
  • There is already a conflict on the use of water
    between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan
  • Uzbekistan is dependent on Turkmen water for a
    recent project (Karshi Pumping Cascade)
  • Natural gas and oil extraction in Central Asian
    countries has been increasing
  • Benefits sharing is likely to become more
    important as more resources are exploited

83
Creating Conditions for Peacemaking
  • Two hypothesis are at work
  • 1) until key conditions are met, competing groups
    are unlikely to make effective progress towards
    and agreements and
  • 2) the development of cooperation between small
    groups in local settings can produce changes
    which spill over and produce a shift in the
    larger conflict.

84
Mediators, intermediaries, and third parties are
not really conflict resolvers.
Third party involvement in conflicts
It is the conflicting parties, the people or
groups of people directly involved in a
conflict, who are the true conflict resolvers.
  • Yet, some conflicts cannot be resolved without
    the help of an intermediary, a third party.
  • Parties' perceptions of each other and of the
    issues of the conflict are so biased, so
    limiting, that they cannot see mutually
    satisfactory, mutually beneficial, or integrative
    options, even when they have the desire to settle
    their differences.
  • In such cases third parties can be most helpful.
    By bringing to the conflict their own knowledge
    and experience, their own perspective, and, of
    course, their own power and leverage, they make
    previously unconsidered options visible and
    feasible.
  • Mediators may help the parties understand what
    makes them the enemy of each other What
    social-economic-political conditions, what
    dynamics, what ideas and ideologies, what
    misperceptions...

85
A peaceful and mutually satisfactory way to end
or significantly de-escalate a conflict.
Conflict resolution
  • A conflict can be ended
  • Through violence or war and by destroying the
    opponent
  • By surrender and capitulation
  • Through temporary de-intensification by deceiving
    the opponent.
  • Yet, these are not regarded as conflict
    resolution. The conflict remains it just loses
    its intensity.
  • It is relatively easy to help resolve a conflict
    stemming from a clash of interests.
  • It is more difficult to deal with a conflict that
    emanates from a clash of values. And it is even
    more difficult to handle a conflict in which at
    least one party's basic human needs are not
    satisfied.
  • It is extremely difficult for the parties to the
    conflict, even with outside assistance, to find a
    way, a solution that would satisfy all of the
    above needs for both/all of them.

The need for enemies is usually satisfied through
the intensification of conflict, not through its
resolution
86
PEACE STRATEGY
  • Peace through morality. Peace (local and global)
    can be brought about by a moral appeal, through
    world public opinion, to leaders and peoples not
    to condone or practi
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