Current state and perspectives of iron ore export from CIS Andrey Kuzmin Project Manager Metal Exper

1
Current state and perspectives of iron ore export
from CISAndrey Kuzmin Project Manager
Metal Expert ConsultingBlack Sea Freight
Markets Ports 5-6 June, Odessa
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• The main points presentation
• CIS domestic market structure
• CIS iron ore export structure
• Forecasts of iron ore consumption and export

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CIS. Production and Domestic Iron Ore Supplies,
Mt
21
24
25
27
27
2007 ProductionIron Ore 190.1 Mt
DomesticMarket 138.8 Mt
4
2007Concentrate Deliveries88.4 Mt2003
Concentrate Deliveries 77.4 Mt
Concentrate Deliveries by CIS Producers, Mt
11
13
11
14
16
5
2007PelletsDeliveries64.9 ???.
????2003PelletsDeliveries52.1 ???. ????
Pellets Deliveries by CIS Producers, Mt
27
31
38
39
35
6
2007 Sintering Ore Deliveries17.0 ???.
????2003Sintering Ore Deliveries17.6 ???.
????
Sintering Ore Deliveries by CIS Producers, Mt
42
38
40
40
43
7
Integration of CIS Steelmakers with Local Iron
Ore Suppliers
8
Consolidation of Russian Iron Ore Market
Concentrate
Pellets
9
Consolidation of Ukrainian Iron Ore Market
Sintering Ore
Concentrate
Pellets
10
CIS Iron Ore Export Structure, Mt
2007 Iron Ore Export44.7 Mt2003 Iron
Ore Export30.1 Mt
11
Major Markets for CIS exporters
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Shares of Russia and Ukraine in the East Europe
market
POLAND
8.6 Mt
Russia export 21.2 Mt East Europe 13.4 Mt
CZECH REP.
Ukraine export 20.8 Mt East Europe 13.8 Mt
7.0 Mt
SLOVAKIA
5.7 Mt
HUNGARY
1.9 Mt
ROMANIA
5.3 Mt.
East Europe Iron Ore Import
East Europe Iron Ore Import Structure in 2007
- Others
- Ukraine
SERBIA
1.9 Mt
- Russia
BULGARIA
1.3 Mt
13
4
2
Volume of iron ore sea shipments from CIS
amounted to 13.6 Mt in 2007
93
14
Chinese Iron Ore Import
2007 Iron Ore Import 384 Mt2005 Iron Ore
Import 275 Mt
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The perspectives of CIS iron ore producers seems
to be not quite favorable

• In the recent couple of years the demand for iron
  ore in the world will still exceed the supply,
  but since 2010 the market will be more balanced
  as the new capacities, which will be launched as
  a result of several big projects, will satisfy
  growing demand
• Demand in domestic market iron ore market will
  grow slowly
• Consolidation in the steel and iron ore industry
  will lead to enlarging of share of long-term
  contracts for iron ore and accordingly will
  decrease the volume of spot market
• Consolidation process in the Eastern Europe could
  force out CIS suppliers from this market

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Key factors for CIS mining companies to survive

• Under the current circumstances, CIS mining
  enterprises, which work in the open market, have
  to improve the quality of their products and
  strongly invest into the development of
  export-oriented transport infrastructure

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Steel Production in Russia, Mt
18
Steel Production Structure in Russia, Mt
2010
2007
19
Pig Iron Producer in CIS, Mt
20
HBI Producer in CIS, Mt
21
Forecasts of Pellets Export from Russia, Mt
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Thanks for your attention
A.Kuzmin_at_metalcourier.com