Meeting of the Oslo Group on Energy Statistics

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• Meeting of the Oslo Group on Energy Statistics
• Oil Statistics and Macroeconomic Statistics
• Statistics Norway, Oslo
• February 6-8, 2006

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Oil Statistics and Macroeconomic Statistics

• Importance of oil data for economic analysis,
  research, and policy advice.
• Importance of oil data for the macroeconomic
  datasets (national accounts, balance of payments,
  government finance statistics)

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Oil Statistics and Macroeconomic Statistics

• Most of the oil producing countries are
  experiencing a rapid shift from oil sector to
  non-oil sector activities.
• Statistical data help to analyze the sectoral
  diversification of a economy of an oil producing
  country.
• The question is how international statistical
  standards help to measure the impact of the oil
  sector on an economy?

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Oil Sector in Macroeconomic Statistics -How far
we could go?

• National accounts oil sector aggregates
• Production account (oil/non-oil gross value
  added)
• Income accounts (oil-non-oil operating surplus,
  primary income, disposable income)
• Capital account (net lending/ net borrowing)
• Balance of payments oil aggregates
• Current account (good, services, income)
• Capital account
• Financial account
• Government finance statistics
• Revenues (oil and non-oil)
• Expenses
• Net acquisition in nonfinancial assets

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National Accounts -Production Account

• Oil and non-oil GDP/ gross value added?
• Current price estimates
• Constant price estimates
• Definition of the oil sector?
• Primary and secondary oil products?
• Narrow definition (oil and gas extraction)
• Broad definition (construction, transportation,
  other activities related to oil sector)

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National Accounts -Production Account

• Methodological issues
• Economic boundary
• Residency of the oil sector units ?
• Production boundary of oil sector
• Production, imports, exports, stocks (pipelines,
  tankers, refineries, consumers)
• Classifications used (units, transactions,
  activity and product classifications, trade
  classifications)
• Harmonization of definitions of crude oil, NGL,
  LPG?

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National Accounts -Production Account

• Valuation issues in compiling oil aggregates
• Prices (basic/producer/purchaser prices market
  prices, transfer prices, f.o.b. valuation of
  imports/exports foreign currency transactions)
• Recording (merchandise trade, taxes and
  subsidies, work-in-progress, inventories,
  gross/net basis of recording transactions between
  units)

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National Accounts -Production Account

• Accuracy of data sources for the oil sector
• Regular statistical survey program
• Administrative data (customs, corporate data,
  income/balance sheet data, etc.)
• Special surveys?
• Soundness of statistical techniques
• Level of detail of output/value added estimates
  for oil activities
• Use of fixed ratios
• Measurement of work in progress, inventories,
  valuation adjustments
• Volume measures of oil/non-oil GDP
• Consistency of oil sector data
• Commodity flow approach
• Input/output tables

9
National Accounts -Income and Capital Accounts

• Oil and non-oil primary income?
• Availability of data on
• Compensation of employees
• Interest
• Distributed income of corporations
• Reinvested earnings on direct foreign investment
• Oil and non-oil disposable Income? (current
  transfers, current taxes on income)
• Capital account (capital transfers, GFCF, CFC,
  acquisition less disposal of tangible
  non-produced assets)

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Balance of Payments

• Residency issues of oil sector
• Multi-country enterprises, offshore enterprises
• Stocks held in other countries
• Mobile equipment (rigs, platforms)
• Pipelines, construction and installation
  activities in oil and gas sector
• Valuation and recording issues
• Royalties/production agreement
• Affiliated enterprises (transfer prices)
• Noncommercial transactions
• Change of ownership principle
• Exchange rates

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Balance of Payments/Goods

• Imports and exports of crude oil and natural gas
• Change in ownership
• Multi-country enterprises
• Crude oil for processing
• Goods not crossing the border
• Recording of imports and exports
• Timing
• Valuation problems
• Stocks of crude oil and natural gas (outside the
  country)

12
Balance of Payments/Services

• Services related to oil and gas
• Freight and insurance
• Pipelines
• Other transportation (incl. storage)
• Construction
• Royalties?

13
Balance of Payments/Income and Capital Account

• Income related to oil sector
• Compensation of employees
• Investment income
• Direct investment
• Current transfers
• Workers remittances?
• Capital account oil aggregates
• Capital transfers
• Acquisition/disposal of non-produced
  non-financial assets
• Financial account
• Direct investment
• Reserve assets

14
Government Finance Statistics

• Revenues
• Oil/non-oil revenues
• Expenses
• Subsidies (incl. implicit subsidies)
• Net acquisition in nonfinancial assets

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What can IMF/STA do?

• Work at the level of member countries
• Technical assistance to member countries
• on measuring the oil sector in the economy
• on statistical legislation and organization
• Encourage members participation to data
  initiatives (SDDS, GDDS, ROSC, CPIS)
• Work with international organizations on data
  quality issues, notably institutional and legal
  aspects, inclusive of dissemination.