Long Term GHG and Carbon constraints : from SRES to GECS

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Long Term GHG and Carbon constraints from SRES
to GECS
Patrick Criqui, Alban KITOUS- IEPEGECS 18 mths
meeting,Athens, 7-8 March 2002
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POLES IMAGE REFs versus IMAGE A1
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Comparison with other World Energy Outlook

• CO2 8, 10 then 12 GtC in 2010, 2020 and 2030

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POLES IMAGE REFs versus IMAGE B1
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POLES IMAGE REFs versus IMAGE A1 and B1
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POLES IMAGE REFs versus MESSAGE B1
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POLES IMAGE REFs versus AIM B1
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GECS proposed GHG and CO2 profiles (from
IMAGE B1)
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POLES IMAGE REFs versus GECS Constrained
Case (equal reduction rate -20 , CO2
and OGHG in 2030)
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The all GHG Soft Landing scenario

• Soft Landing cases are designed in order to a
  priori decrease the shocks imposed by emission
  constraints
• The all-GHG Soft Landing satisfies the GECS
  global and energy-CO2 constraint
• It is basically defined with continuing
  reductions in Annex B countries and stabilisation
  dates in 2020 2030 and 2040, respectively for the
  three categories of DCs
• Exceptions for the US in 2010 and for EITs are
  also considered, in order to introduce more
  realism in the medium term

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The SL scenario parameters

• Annex B countries
• up to 2010 Kyoto
• - no HA for EITs
• - SL for USA ( -16 emission intensity
  for 2000-2010)
• 2010-2030 All GHGs -25 (50 for EITs)
• CO2 Energy -10 (50 for EITs)
• 2030-2050 All GHGs CO2 E -10 for all

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• non-Annex B countries
• - category 2 (2020) South Korea
• - category 3 (2030) Mexico, Brasil, R South
  America, Turkey, North Africa OPEP, Gulf, R
  Middle East, China
• - category 4 (2040) R Cent Am, Egypt, North
  Africa non-OPEP, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, R
  South Asia, R South-East Asia
• 2010 emissions initial growth rate
• All GHGs 1.0 yagr of pop (2000-2010)
• Energy CO2 3.0 yagr of pop (2000-2010)

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The Contraction Convergence scenario

• The emissions profiles for all GHGs and CO2
  Energy are given by the previous SL scenario
• Parameters
• Year of convergence of emissions pc 2075
• Year for population growth cap 2030
• Convergence speed starts early, progressive up
  to 2075 (convergence parameter 3)

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The Global Compromise scenario

• The emissions profiles for all GHGs and CO2
  Energy are given by the previous SL scenario
• Parameters
• 2010-2030 2010 is the base year for 2030
  endowments
• - countries  shares of population (Pi) and
  emissions (Ei)
• - the calculation of world population preference
  for emission-based (a) or population-based (b, a
  b 1) objective ( of world population)
• 2030 endowment of country i aEi bPi
• 2030-2050 2030 is the base year for 2050
  endowments

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Soft Landing scenario vs. GHGs Constraint
Profile (GCP)
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North America
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OECD Europe

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Japan - Australia - NZ
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Central Eastern Europe
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Former Soviet Union

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Latin America

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South Asia

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South-East Asia

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China

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North Africa - Middle East

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Sub-saharan Africa

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Comparison of the 3 endowment schemes