A Review of CPCs Monitoring Efforts for the CFS Reanalysis CFSR

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A Review of CPCs Monitoring Efforts for the CFS
Reanalysis (CFSR)

• Presentation for the
• CFSR Science Advisory Board
• November 8, 2007

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CFSRR What is at stake for CPC?

• A LOT!!!
• At present, climate/ENSO, monitoring and
  prediction at CPC depends on CDAS1 (how old is
  the model ?) and CFS Reforecasts.
• Once the new CFSR(R) is complete CPC would want
  to move to a new 1981-2010 (30 yrs) WMO standard
  base period.
• CFSRR products will help us much with our
  Monthly/seasonal forecasts of
• - T/P over US,
• Develop Objective, Model based
• - NOAA hurricane Outlooks,
• - Drought Outlooks,
• Monitoring and Prediction of Global Oceans/Global
  Monsoons! etc!
• Quality of data set as compared to R1/R2 ?
• as good an analyses as we can get.
• CPC has extensive experience in monitoring R1/R2

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CPCs Monitoring Philosophy for the CFSR

• Monitor for large scale errors against existing
  observational and reanalysis datasets (e.g., R1,
  R2, ERA40)
• Alert EMC if consistent (or abrupt) deviations
  from observational and reanalysis occur !!!
• Monitoring efforts will include
• Comparison of basic statistics (RMS, Correlation,
  )
• Spatial maps
• Hovmöller diagrams
• Monitoring of regional climate indices
• Time series of global variables

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Categorization of CPCs Monitoring Efforts

• Dedicated Monitoring Leads (with help from others
  in CPC)
• Time series of basic statistics (POC Wesley
  Ebisuzaki)
• Stratospheric monitoring (POC Craig Long)
• Tropospheric monitoring (POC Muthuvel Chelliah)
• Surface monitoring (POC Wanqiu Wang)
• Ocean Monitoring (POC Yan Xue)

Note Others in EMC and CPC have their monitoring
requirements included via the respective POC
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Schematics of Data Availability to CPC for
Monitoring
Available Data
1 Jan 1979
30 Sep 1979
On Sep 30 1979
31 Dec 1979
1 Jan 1979
On Feb 05 1980
1 Feb 1980
1 Jan 1980
5 Mar 1980
1 Jan 1980
On Mar 05 1980
Note Dates in blue refer to date of the month
the Reanalysis is currently at
Dates in red refer to beginning and end dates of
the Reanalysis data that is available for
monitoring
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CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring
Efforts

• Monthly means of all atmospheric variables
  contained in following datasets (available both
  at the original Gaussian grid resolution of
  1152x576 and interpolated at 2.5x2.5 lat/lon
  grid)
• PGB files (2.5 x 2.5 degree)
• FLX files (T62 Gaussian grid)
• D3D files
• IPV files
• Monthly means of ocean fields at 1x1 lat/lon grid

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CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring
Efforts Contd..

• 6-Hourly datasets for the atmospheric variables
  (available both at the original Gaussian grid
  resolution of 1152x576 and interpolated at
  2.5x2.5 lat/lon grid)
• sfc. Pre, precipitable water, prcp, evap (hourly)
• height at 5 given levels (200, 500, 700, 850,
  1000)
• temp at 12 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,700
  ,850,1000)
• u-wind at 4 levels (1,2,5,10,50,100,150,200,500,70
  0,850,1000)
• v-wind at 4 levels (200, 500, 850, 1000)
• omega at 1 level (500)
• psi chi at 4 levels (200,500,850,1000)
• moisture (q) at 5 levels (1000,850,750,500,300)
• PV at 3 levels (450,550,650K)
• mslp, pwat, presfc
• shtfl, lhtfl, u10m, v10m, prate, tmp2m, tmin,
  tmax, q2m, ustrs, vstrs, dlwsfc, dswsfc, ulwsfc,
  uswsfc, ulwtoa, uswtoa, soil moisture at 4
  levels, gflux, snow depth, runoff, top soil temp
  (T62 Gaussian grid)

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CFSR Datasets Requested by CPC for Monitoring
Efforts Contd..

• Daily datasets for the oceanic variables
  (available 1x1 lat/lon grid)
• Depth of 20C isotherm
• Ocean heat content
• Sea level height
• Sea surface temperature
• Vertical velocity at 50-meter depth
• Ocean Current (u,v) at 15-meter depth

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Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC
Stratosphere

• R2
• Temperature, Height, PV, U winds 100-10 hPa
• ERA40 (provided by EMC)
• Temperature, Height, PV, U winds 100-1 hPa
• CPC Analysis
• Temperature, Heights (50,10,5,2,1 hpa monthly
  fields)
• Total ozone (monthly zonal means)

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Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC
Troposphere

• R1, R2
• Entire archive
• 6 hourly, daily, monthly
• All available levels
• 1979-present
• ERA 40 (to be made available by EMC)

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Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC Surface

• R1 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes)
• R2 (rainfall, cloudiness, OLR, radiation fluxes)
• CMAP (rainfall)
• ISCCP cloudiness
• SRB (Surface Radiation Budget)
• Leaky-bucket soil model output
• GLDAS (soil moisture, evaporation, runoff)
• GDAS sea ice fraction and thickness
• CPC T2m
• NA Regional Reanalysis (NARR) (snow depth, 10-40,
  40-100, 100-200 soil moisture)
• NOAA OLR

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Comparison Datasets Assembled by the CPC Ocean

• GODAS (monthly and pentad)
• OI SST (monthly and pentad)
• Altimetry seas surface height (1993-2007 monthly
  and pentad)
• Oscar surface currents (1993-2007 monthly and
  pentad)
• Ocean-Atmosphere Flux (WHOI 1982-2002 monthly)
• World Ocean Atlas 2001 (Climatology)

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Monitored Plots Statistical Comparisons

• Time series quick way to see problems, changes
• goodness of fit (rms, correlation, maximum
  difference) to other analyses (i.e., reanalyses,
  observations)
• bias (ex. look for satellite bias problems)
  maximum difference between adjacent grid points
  (gradient) looks for physical reasonableness,
  e.g., ocean should be ice covered but isn't will
  show as a large gradient in the surface
  temperature

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Monitored Plots Statistical Comparisons

• These statistical comparisons will be broken down
  by
• latitude band global, 90S-60S, 60S-30S, 30S-30N,
  20S-20N, 30N-60N, 60N-90N
• land, water
• Comparisons on daily, pentad (some obs), monthly
  data
• The time series will span the monthly/yearly
  boundaries
• Only a few of the comparisons will be plotted but
  will keep the data files for all the computed
  statistical comparisons.

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Monitored Plots Stratosphere

• Time Series (refer to slides 12-13)
• Temperature Daily (12Z), NH, Trop, SH, zonal
  means 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa
• PV Daily (12Z), NH, SH, zonal means 450, 550,
  650 K
• Time SeriesIndices
• QBO winds (10N-10S U comp ) Monthly 50, 30,
  20, 10 hPa For Entire Length of Each Stream
• vT (40-70 N S) Daily 100 hPa For Each
  Year
• Spatial Maps (x-y)
• Total Ozone Monthly
• Temperature Monthly 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa
• Height Monthly 50, 10, 5, 2, 1 hPa
• Zonal Means
• Temperature (P vs lat) Monthly 1000 1 hPa
• U comp (P vs lat) Monthly 1000 1 hPa
• Ozone Mixing Ratio (P vs lat) Monthly 1000
  1 hPa
• Hovmöller
• The Following are to be Maintained for Entire
  Length of Each Year
• Temperature (60-90 N S) (P vs time) Daily
  1000 1 hPa
• U comp (60-90 N S) (P vs time) Daily 1000
  1 hPa
• The Following are to be Maintained for Entire
  Length of Each Stream

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Monitored Plots Troposphere

• Basic Time Series
• a) 6-hrly 1 month at a time
• As CFSR is compared with say R1 (or R2 or ECMWF)
  plot most statistical quantities, such as mean,
  rms difference, maximum difference, max gradient
  between successive points, etc. over the globe 2)
  same as 1) but for different latitude bands.
• b) Daily Time series from beginning of calendar
  year to last day of current month -1 year (max)
  at a time same as under a).
• c) Monthly time series from beginning of each
  run stream (at least 4 years) same as a) If
  possible this time series could be extended to
  cover the entire CFSR period.
• Climate Signal Time SeriesIndices (PNA, NAO,
  850/200 mb zonal wind indices over Nino regions,
  RSOI, EQSOI based on CFSR monthly mean data as
  compared with the same from CDAS1 and CDAS2.

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Monitored Plots Troposphere (cont.)

• Spatial Maps (x-y)
• a) Daily 3 panel map (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2) of
  selected variables such as 1) SLP, 2-3) 850/200
  mb vector V, 4) 500mb Geop.H, 5) 1000 mb specific
  humidity q, print cor/rms at top,
• b) Monthly mean 3 panel maps of selected
  variables (CFSR/CDAS1/CDAS2)
• c) Full Gaussian resolution maps of selected
  variables (nothing to compare)
• Zonal Means (x-p x-sections) based on monthly
  mean data for (1000-10mb) u, v, T, H, and
  q(1000-300mb) at lats Eq., 15 deg. N/S, and 45
  deg. N/S - for CFSR as compared with CDAS1 and
  CDAS2. Diabatic heating rates (convective
  heating, moistening, shortwave radiation,
  longwave radiation)
• Hovmöller (x-t y-t x-sections) at Eq, 30 deg.
  N/S, and 60 deg. N/S. (for x-t plots), and at
  0/90/180/270 deg. longitudes (for y-t plots) -
  based on daily mean data from beginning of
  calendar year 500 mb omega, 850 mb q, 200 mb H
  from CFSR compared against CDAS1 and CDAS2, MJO
  (vel. pot.).

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Monitored Plots Surface

• Time Series (for all variables as those for
  spatial maps same frequency as the spatial maps)
• Basic Statistics (see slide 12-13)
• Global mean time Series (6-hourly without
  verification)
• Dry surface pressure
• Surface pressure
• Precipitable water
• Evaporation
• Precipitation
• E-P
• Spatial Maps (x-y) (CFSR together with
  verifications)
• Daily mean (North American snow depth, 10-40,
  40-100, 100-200 soil moisture)
• Pentad mean (Global precipitation, OLR)
• Monthly mean (Global precipitation, cloudiness,
  OLR, solar radiation, longwave radiation, T2m,
  evaporation, runoff, sea-ice fraction, sea-ice
  thickness, surface pressure)

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Monitored Plots Ocean

• Time series Mean, RMS, AC for each ocean basin
• (all variables listed under spatial maps,
  Monthly and Pentad)
• Time series Indices (Monthly and Pentad)
• Pacific Niño Indices Heat content Warm Water
  Volume Taux
• Indian Dipole Mode Index heat content Warm
  Water Volume Taux
• Atlantic TNA, TSA, TNA-TSA, ATL3 SST heat
  content Warm Water Volume Taux
• Coastal upwelling indices for California Current
  Ecosystem
• Global and Regional basin average heat content,
  SST, SSH
• Vertical cross sections of T, U, V, etc. at
  equator, 5N, 5S, 20N, 20S, 40N, 40S, etc.
• Spatial maps (Monthly and Pentad)
• Temperature, Salinity (5-2000m, selected levels)
• Zonal current (15m) W (50m) heat content, D20C,
  SSH
• Taux and Tauy Latent and Sensible Heat Flux
• Hovmöller Diagrams (Pentad)
• Eq. Temperature zonal current (15m) heat
  content D20C Taux, Tauy

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Thank You!