Ruimte voor de rivier, ruimte voor de natuur langetermijnperspectieven voor natuur in het rivierenge

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Climate change proofing habitats - Kent Method
and some results Sabine van Rooij
Funded by INTERREG IIIB North West
Europe www.branchproject.org
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Content

• Objective BRANCH Case study Kent
• Methods
• Effect climate change potential distribution of
  species
• Activities Kent case study so far
• Species selection
• Modeling effects cc on ecological networks of
  species
• Some results
• Objective workshop

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Objective BRANCH Case study Kent
Action 3 Assessment of effects Climate change in
NW-europe
NW- European Scale level
NW- European Scale level
Action 4 Assessment effects on estuarial and
coastal zones Case studies -
Coastal zone South East England (UK) - Coast
of Normandy (F)
Regional Scale level
Action 5 Assessment effects on inland
ecosystems Case studies - Robust Corridor
Limburg (Nl) - Kent County (UK)
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Objective BRANCH - Case study Kent

• Questions addressed in Case study Kent
• Are Kent habitats climate change proof?
• Will species be able to sustain in the landscape?
• How can the landscape be adapted for
  biodiversity?

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Objective BRANCH - Case study Kent

• For selection of species
• Exploring effect on the potential future
  distribution
• Assessing potential of species to colonize
• new suitable habitat / remain in the
  landscape
• Planning for climate change proof ecosystems

Sharing
Doing
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Method - Effect climate change potential
species distribution

• Different reactions of species in a region
• Incoming species ecosystems become suitable for
  species potential colonization
• Disappearing species ecosystems become
  unsuitable for species potential extinction
• Non responding species

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Method - Effect climate change potential
species distribution

• Potential distribution of species modeled
• - in North West Europe
• - for appr. 400 species
• - with SPECIES model (by ECI)

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Method - Effect climate change potential
species distribution

• SPECIES model
• In - map with present distribution in
  NW-Europe
• - maps of abiotic factors that correlate
  with the present
• distribution (e.g. soil and climate)
• - climate scenario HADa for 2020 and 2050
• Out - Potential distribution of the species
  after climate change in
• 2020 and 2050

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Example of results Adonis blue
Projected change in simulated climate space
Results of base line maps
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Method activities so far case study Kent

• Species selection for Kent in discussion with
  KCC and species experts
• First modeling of habitat of species
• Check of results with Kent species experts in
  Kent
• Improved and more sophisticated modeling of
  habitat and networks
• Present planning workshop

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Method - species selection

• From 400 species
• 7 species selected for assessment habitat and
  ecological networks in Kent
• - of which we have ecological knowledge
• of which is expected that they appear or
  disappear in Kent
• of special interest for Kent
• differing in habitat preference, fragmentation
  sensitivity,
• species group, reaction on climate change

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Method - species selection

• Selected species
• Dartford warbler Heath land
• Bechsteins bat Woodland
• Purple emperor Woodland
• Adonis blue Chalk grassland
• Cettis warbler Wetland
• Meadow pipit Wet grassland
• Great crested newt Ponds

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Method - sustainability of species

• Modeling of networks of selected species
• in 4 future points of time T1, T2, T3, T4
• with the SMALLSTEPS-model
• In
• Habitat map Kent
• Species characteristics (e.g. habitat preference,
  densities, dispersal capacity, area required for
  sustainable networks)
• Out
• Map of species networks and key areas
• Map of sustainability of networks

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Method - sustainability of species

• Incoming species
• From T1 to T4, habitat
• becomes more suitable (ind./ha ?)
• Effect in smallsteps modeling
• habitat connectivity ?
• ? separate ecological networks connect

Suitability of habitat ?
T1
T4
Time ?
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Method - sustainability of species

• Disappearing species
• From T1 to T4, habitat becomes
• less suitable (ind./ha ?)
• Effect in smallsteps modeling
• habitat connectivity ?
• ? ecological networks break up

Suitability of habitat ?
T1
T4
Time ?
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Results assessment ecological networks
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Adonis blue - Lysandra bellargus

• Reaction on Climate change incoming
• Present distribution now rare, increasing
• Habitat
• Optimal lowland calcarous grassland
• Suitable -
• Barriers not sensitive for barriers

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Adonis blue (Lysandra bellargus) Projected change
in simulated climate space
2020
2050
Present
Expanding species in Kent
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Characteristics meadow pipit
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Meadow pipit (Anthus pratensis) Projected change
in simulated climate space
2020
2050
Present
Contracting species in Kent
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Objective workshop
climate change proofing of habitats in Kent
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Climate change proofing habitats -
Kent Introduction to program and design
method Eveliene Steingröver
Funded by INTERREG IIIB North West
Europe www.branchproject.org
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Content

• Objective workshop
• Introduction to the design method
• The case of the Adonis blue
• Program and restrictions
• Questions

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Objective workshop

• Main goal
• Demonstrate how to design a climate change proof
  ecological network
• Secondary goals
• Present modeling results
• Increase knowledge about ecological networks
• To lay the foundation for a climate change proof
  ecological network in Kent

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Designing questions from stakeholders
Questions
Design steps
What do we want?
Set goal and ambition level
Species? Ecosystem? Ambition?
Diagnosis
What does it mean?
Sustainable? target?
Design spatial solutions
Spatial solutions?
Alternatives?
Optimal design?
Scale up and select
Other functions? Alternatives?
Spatial design
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Introduction to the design method
Design spatial solutions

• Principles of designing with networks
• Aim for highest sustainability
• Aim for least surface area
• Create alternatives using different strategies
  and locations
• Rank alternatives

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Introduction to the design method
Design spatial solutions

• Principles of designing with networks
• Aim for highest sustainability
• Network with gt 1 key area
• Network with 1 key area
• Key area
• Network without key area
• Non-sustainable network

ecological sustainability
Climate change sunglasses
surface area
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Introduction to design method
Set goal and ambition level

• Redefine goal for climate change
• To create the strongest possible network for
  incoming species by connecting sustainable
  networks with Key areas
• To safeguard disappearing species for as long as
  possible in the strongest places, e.g.
  sustainable networks with priority 1 Key areas
• (to create a sustainable network for
  non-responding species)

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Introduction to the design method
Workshop program

• Planning vision for
• ecological network

III Up scaling
Scale up and select
II Setting a strategy
Set goal and ambition level
Design spatial solutions
I network design for species
? Results modeling
Diagnosis
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Species selection for design

• Dartford warbler Heath land
• Bechsteins bat Woodland
• Purple emperor Woodland
• Adonis blue Chalk grassland
• Cettis warbler Wetland
• Meadow pipit Wet grassland
• Great crested newt Ponds

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Introduction to the program

• Network design species
• Setting a strategy
• Up scaling
• From species to ecosystem
• From ecosystem to Kent

woodland
wet grassland
chalk grassland
woodland
wet grassland
chalk grassland


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Introduction to the design method

• Network design species
• Check modeling results with expert knowledge
• Decision tables
• Prioritize sustainable networks with Key areas
• Mapping the future

Design spatial solutions
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The case of the Adonis blue

• Reaction on Climate change incoming
• Present distribution rare, increasing
• Habitat
• Optimal lowland calcareous grassland
• Suitable -
• Barriers not sensitive for barriers

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K
K
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Introduction to the program

• Network design
• Setting a strategy
• Up scaling
• From species to ecosystem
• From ecosystem to Kent

woodland
wet grassland
chalk grassland
woodland
wet grassland
chalk grassland


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Introduction to the program

• Setting a strategy
• Define priority areas
• Formulate strategy
• Define and prioritize actions

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II setting a strategy locate priority areas
K
K
Sustainable networks KA in near future
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II setting a strategy locate priority areas
Connecting area
K
K
Entrance area
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II setting a strategy locate priority areas
connecting area
K
K
Entrance area
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II setting a strategy define actions
connecting area
K
K
Entrance area
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Introduction to the program

• Network design
• Setting a strategy
• Up scaling
• From species to ecosystem
• From ecosystem to Kent

woodland
wet grassland
chalk grassland
woodland
wet grassland
chalk grassland


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Introduction to the program

• Restrictions
• Use state of the art scientific knowledge
• Learning by doing
• If needed time changes to program
• Working with examples
• Facilitating participants how to use model
  results to design a climate change proof
  ecological network in Kent
• Result workshop foundation for a cc proof
  ecological network and the experience to complete
  the vision

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Program in more detail

• Two Sessions in 2 groups (woodland and grassland
  (wet and chalk))
• 11.35 Design species network
• 12.30 Lunch
• 13.15 II Setting strategy
• III up scaling from species to ecosystem
• Plenary session
• 14.30 presentation group results
• 15.15 Coffee and tea break
• 15.30 up scaling from ecosystem to Kent
• 16.30 Evaluation
• 16.45 Closing statements

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Start working in 2 groups

• Location
• Group 1.
• Group 2

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III Up scaling to an ecological network Kent

• Needed
• Strategy for woodland (map arguments)
• Strategy for chalk grassland (map arguments)
• Strategy for wet grassland (map arguments)
• Future map
• Habitat maps
• Take into account
• All three strategies and reflect on similarities
  and differences
• Include other ecosystems
• Future map
• Reflect on best way to accommodate biodiversity
  of all ecosystems in one strategy
• Design and argument a vision on a cc proof
  ecological network in Kent

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Summary adaptation measures per species and per
ecosystem type
Adaptation Strategy I Link Networks
Adaptation Strategy II Increase expanding
capacity

Adaptation Strategy III Optimize networks in
climate refugia