Weather-Monsoon Foreshadow 2015

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Monsoon 2015 Foreshadow
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102 OF LPA (/-4)NORMALJUNE THROUGH
SEPTEMBER(LPA 887mm)
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PROBABALITY OF MONSOON
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EXPECTED NORMAL VS FORECAST
300
289
LPA
173
174
164
167
261
Forecast
258
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JUNE RAINFALL PROBABALITY
107 of LPA Normal LPA is 164 mm
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JULY RAINFALL PROBABALITY
104 of LPA Normal LPA is 289 mm
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AUGUST RAINFALL PROBABALITY
99 of LPA Normal LPA is 261 mm
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SEPTEMBER RAINFALL PROBABALITY
96 of LPA Normal LPA is 173 mm
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MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE THROUGH
SEPTEMBER
Poor Signal
Rainfall Departure2
Kerala, Konkan and Goa, Punjab, Haryana, west UP
will receive good amounts of rainfall. Parts of
Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema and south Karnataka are at
some risk
Poor Signal
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MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JUNE
Poor Signal
Rainfall Departure7
Country as a whole will receive good amounts of
rainfall indicating timely onset
Poor Signal
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MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY JULY
Poor Signal
Rainfall Departure4
Normal rainfall expected
Poor Signal
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MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY AUGUST
Poor Signal
Rainfall Departure-1
Slightly less than normal rainfall is expected
particularly over southern peninsular India
Poor Signal
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MONSOON SPATIAL VARIABILITY SEPTEMBER
Poor Signal
Rainfall Departure-4
Little less than normal rainfall is expected
particularly over Central and southern India
Poor Signal
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EXPECTED PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES

• A cyclonic vortex is expected to move along the
  west coast in the last week of April to first
  week of May causing rainfall all along the west
  coast and Gujarat
• In second week of May, another spell of rainfall
  over parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra is expected
• Pre-Monsoon activity is expected to be frequent
  and strong through out May in North and
  North-East India
• Monsoon onset is likely to be strong and early

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PRE-MONSOON ACTIVITIES
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PAST FORECAST PERFORMANCE
2012 2013 2014
Skymet Forecast 95 of LPA 103 of LPA 91 of LPA
Actual Monsoon 93 of LPA 105 of LPA 88 of LPA
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