The Netherlands: LTE to Drive New Growth as Telecom Market Consolidation Speeds up

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The Netherlands LTE to Drive New Growth as
Telecom Market Consolidation Speeds up
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Summary
The Dutch telecom market generated 16.3bn in
service revenue in 2013, 2.3 more than in 2012.
Pyramid Research expects market revenue to return
to the 2011 level in 2014 and increase to 19.3bn
in 2018, growing in US dollar terms at an annual
rate of 3.2 in 2013-2018. We expect KPN and
Vodafone, as the two operators with the largest
product portfolios including 4G services, to
maintain their market positions, while Tele2,
which has become a 4G network operator, will gain
market share but remain a niche player. On the
MA front, we expect more consolidation, opening
opportunities for investors.
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Introduction and Landscape The telecom market in
the Netherlands generated 16.3bn in service
revenue in 2013, 2.3 more than in 2012. Pyramid
Research expects total market revenue to return
to the 2011 level in 2014 and increase to 19.3bn
in 2018, growing in US dollar terms at an annual
rate of 3.2 in 2013-2018. Mobile data revenue
will be the main growth engine of the Dutch
communications sector, expanding at a 13.6 CAGR
in 2013-2018 despite declining messaging revenue
and growing OTT substitution. In the same period,
fixed broadband revenue will grow at a CAGR of
5.3, as the country will reach a population
penetration of 49 in 2018, higher than in the
UK, France and Germany.
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For 2013-2018, we expect KPN and Vodafone, the
two operators with the largest product portfolios
including 4G services, to maintain their market
positions, while Tele2, which has become a 4G
network operator, will gain market share but
remain a niche player. On the MA front, we
expect more consolidation, opening opportunities
for investors. KPNs refusal of América Móvils
9.7bn acquisition offer does not mean that
takeover talks wont resume at a later stage.
Dutch cable companies remain primary acquisition
targets because of their solid growth prospects
and attractive merger opportunities.
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Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Market and Competitor Overview
3. Netherlands in a regional context
4. Economic, demographic and political context
5. Regulatory environment
6. Demand profile
7. Service evolution
8. Competitive landscape
9. Major market players
10. Segment analysis

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