Jos Luis Cordeiro

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Energy Futures 2020

• José Luis Cordeiro
• Director, Venezuela Node
• The Millennium Project
• American Council for the United Nations University

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Qué nos depara el futuro energético?

• Celdas de combustible
• Economía del hidrógeno
• Secuestro del carbón
• Energía solar espacial
• Transmisión inalámbrica
• Envío por microondas
• BP (Beyond Petroleum)
• Muerte de la OPEP
• Protocolo de Kyoto (ambiente)
• Cambio tecnológico
• Sustitución energética

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Jeque Yamani, 2000Arabia Saudita
Millennium Project

• La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de
  piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto
  y no por falta de petróleo.

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Millennium Project
Helsinki
Ottawa
Berlin
London
Calgary
Moscow
Paris
Prague
Seoul
Washington, DC
Silicon Valley
Rome
Tehran
Tokyo
Istanbul
Cairo
Mexico City
Beijing
Kuwait
Caracas
New Delhi
Cyber Node
Bogotá
Madurai
Sao Paulo
Lima
Sidney
Pretoria/Johannesburg
Buenos Aires
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Millennium Project
Millennium Project
is a TransInstitution (www.acunu.org)
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Millennium Project
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The 15 Global Challenges
Sustainable development
1
Sustainable development
Water
2
Water
Global ethics
15
Global ethics
3
Population
Population
4
Democracy
Science and technology
Democracy
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Science and technology
Long-term policymaking
5
Long-term policymaking
Energy
13
Energy
Transnational organized crime
Information and communications
6
Information and communications
Transnational organized crime
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Women
Market economy
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Market economy
Women
Global security strategies
Global security strategies
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8
Diseases
Diseases
Work and institutions
Work and institutions
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Energy Scenarios 2020 Study Flow
Millennium Project
Annotated Bibliography
Delphi- Round 1
IFs Model
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
Final Report
PHASE 3
Draft Scenarios
Delphi- Round 2
Final Scenarios
Delphi-
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Annotated Bibliography(85 pages)

• Summaries of important scenario studies
• Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond, The
  World Energy Council
• World Energy Outlook 2004 and 2005, International
  Energy Agency
• International Energy Outlook 2005, Energy
  Information Administration, US Department of
  Energy
• International Energy Outlook 2004, Energy
  Information Administration, US Department of
  Energy
• Energy needs, choices and possibilities
  scenarios to 2050, The Shell Scenarios
• World energy, technology and climate policy
  outlook 2030, European Commission.
• Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040, European
  Renewable Energy Council
• Comparison of the Global Energy Studies
• Other Related Scenarios and Reports

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Four Assumed Scenarios

• 1. Business as usual. Global changes continue
  without great surprises or much change in energy
  patterns, other than those resulting from
  dynamics and trends already in place
• 2. Environmental backlash. The international
  environmental movement becomes more organized and
  violent, attacking fossil energy industries
• 3. High tech economy. Technological innovations
  accelerate beyond current expectations, and have
  large scale impacts in the energy supply mix and
  consumption patterns
• 4. Political turmoil. Increasing political
  instability and conflicts, relating to or
  resulting from energy needs and capacities

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• 1. Business as Usual
• Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs
• Moderate environmental movement impacts
• Moderate economic growth
• Moderate changes in geo-politics and
  war/peace/terrorism
• 2. Environmental Backlash
• Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs
• High environmental movement impacts
• Moderate economic growth
• Moderate changes in geo-politics and
  war/peace/terrorism
• 3. High Tech Economy
• High growth in technological breakthroughs
• Low environmental movement impacts
• High economic growth
• Few changes in geo-politics and
  war/peace/terrorism
• 4. Political Turmoil
• Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs
• Low environmental movement impacts
• Moderate/low economic growth

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Example Shell scenarios for 2050
demographics urbanisation incomes
demand liberalisation
Innovation and competition
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Delphi Round 1(Results 145 written pages)

• Section 1. Developments that might affect future
  energy conditions
• Section 2. Global Energy Scenario Elements
• Section 3. Global Energy Sources
• Section 4. New suggestions and comments

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Demographics of the Delphi (round 1)
Total participants 131(not including the RT
Delphi)
Regional
Sectoral
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Demographics of the Scenarios (round 2)
Regional
Total participants 76
Sectoral
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Global Energy Scenario Elements (example)
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Comments on Comments

• Some 3,000 comments were received
• From energy experts around the world
• In all four sections with respect to all
  scenarios
• Led to more complete formation of the 4 final
  scenarios

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Numeric Questions in Section 2
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More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for BAU)
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More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for
Environmental Backlash)
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More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for High
Tech)
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More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for
Political Turmoil)
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Global Energy Sources
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.
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The IFs Model

• The International Futures (IFs), University of
  Denver, was for additional quantitative scenario
  data.
• The models were produced for UNEP GEO Project and
  for the National Intelligence Council, 2020
  Project
• Characteristics of the MP scenarios were used to
  estimated exogenous energy efficiency.
• Existing IFs scenarios were used where possible
• Five output variables computed
• Annual emissions from fossil fuels- billion tons
• Energy demand- bil barrels OE
• Energy price index, base 100 in 2000
• GDP per capita in PPP 95 dollars- thousand
  dollars
• Annual water usage- cubic km

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• Scenario 1
• The SkepticBusiness As Usual (BAU)

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1. The Skeptic

• The economy lurches, inflation flares
• The progress of technology is modest
• Decisions seem inadequate. Bad judgment, bad
  luck, holding self-interests above societal
  interests, amorality, timidity, and xenophobia
  all trump over rationality
• It is a good time for some and a bad one for
  others, full of opportunities and broken
  promises, a world of hope and despair
• The public pulse 37 percent of the people say
  they are better off today than in 2005, only 40
  percent say things will be better in 2040

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1. Demand for Energy Grows(particularly in China)
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1. Despite Rising Prices
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1. Result Inflation (USA and world)
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1. Also Adding to Inflation

• Retirement rate is at a peak demand for
  expensive services peak
• Corporate retirement plans fail and require
  government rescue
• World population is up by about 25 since 2000
• Cost of weapons, wars, rebuilding, peacekeeping
  has bled national treasuries deficits have
  soared
• Anti-terrorism vigilance is also very expensive
• Earthquakes, hurricanes, pandemic are all too
  frequent

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1. Plans for Reducing Imports

• President George W. Bush announced a plan to
  lower US dependence on imported oil by 2025. But
  it failed
• The commitment to oil was too strong
• No one was convinced that the world had reached
  Peak Oil
• Another President proposed an Apollo-like plan
  later
• Like Kennedy We choose to solve the looming
  energy crisis not because it is easy but because
  to go on as we are will deny the world of our
  children the best the future has to offer, will
  keep the world on a path of depletion, a path
  promising riches for some and poverty for many.
  We choose to solve the energy question for the
  long term and not accept short-term patches. We
  choose to create our future and not simply let it
  happen

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1. Easy Efficiency Targets Were Harvested Then
the Gains Stopped
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1. Chinas Big Export (Box)

• One million per year
• Electric or small IC engines
• Domestic and export focus
• Sedan Chairs (Box)

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1. The Importance of Ethanol

• Many sources waste, cellulose, corn, sugar cane,
  palm oil, sweet sorghum, saw-grass, etc.
• Agricultural polices throughout the world
  adjusted to encourage this renewable supply
• Genetic research into higher alcohol-producing
  varieties.
• Engine designs altered to accept fuel blends
• Brazil, Argentina, Australia, El Salvador,
  Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Poland, India use
  it more and more
• The EU converted a major portion of its surplus
  into fuels and introduced protective tariffs on
  imported ethanol
• European countries opposing genetic modification
  Austria, France, Portugal, Greece and Denmark
• With the emphasis on ethanol, world food supply
  became imbalanced and hunger increased
• Opportunistic terrorism in anti-ethanol organisms

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1. The Skeptic (BAU)

• Yes, I am an skeptic
• Ive heard it all before
• Today there is too much pessimistic thinking
  about energy
• Reserves have grown in the past when depletion
  was forecast
• Now many people in the industry say it will
  happen again
• The 2020 World Cup is on TV so lets worry about
  it tomorrow!

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• Scenario 2
• Environmental
• Backlash

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2. Shell Sustainable Growth Scenario
Carbon sequestration
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Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean
Source International Nuclear Safety Center
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2. Sun spots increasing
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• Scenario 3
• High TechTechnology Pushes Off the Limits to
  Growth

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3. Technology pushes off the limits

• World economy reaches US 80 trillion
• Internet 4.0 connects over half of humanity,
  which is growing stable at 7,5 billion people
• Technological convergence accelerates
• NBIC Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno bloom
• Moores Law survives and thrives due to quantum
  computing, 3D circuits and sub-atomic particles
• Artificial intelligence reaches human
  intelligence levels, and a technological
  singularity is expected any time soon
• Biological evolution, slow and erratic, is
  overtaken by technological evolution, fast and
  designed
• Cyborgs and clones are becoming normal and
  accepted in societies, and their numbers increase
  faster than those of the naturals
• Humans will never be the same, in fact, the first
  transhumans and posthumans have already arrived
• Advanced robotics and space exploration are ready
  to take-off

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3. Technological Convergence NBIC
Atoms
Cells
Bio
Nano
NBIC
Cogno
Info
Bits
Neurons
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3. Ray Kurzweil (MIT)The Singularity is Near

• www.singularity.com
• Bill Gates

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3. Limits to growth?
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3. No limits to growth?
Herman KahnThe Next 200 Years
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3. Oil costs and reserves
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3. More oil costs and reserves
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3. Deeper and deeper
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3. Journey to the Center of the Earth

• JuiCE (Box)
• EU-Japan-US consortium
• Combined world effort
• Methane exploration
• Internal and continuous Earth production
• Deep drilling (30 km)

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3. Energy waves decarbonization
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3. Technology pushes off the limits

• 21st century energy drivers
• Technological change
• New discoveries
• Resource substitution
• The proper energy mix
• Old oil and new oil
• Gas and more gas
• Coal and less coal
• Renewables
• New energy sources

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3. The economic problem EROEI

• Gasoline taxes
• Carbon taxes
• Fixed costs
• Sugar versus oil
• Market mechanisms
• Supply and demand
• Cost considerations
• Energy substitutes
• Policy incentives

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3. Towards a Post-Petroleum World
British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
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3. The Energy Internet

• Buckminster Fuller
• Global Energy Network Institute
• GENI.org

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3. Bioenergy and eternal energy

• The cells of life
• Photosynthesis
• CO2 2 H2O light
• ? (CH2O) O2 H2O
• From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
• Craig Venter and his petroleum bacteria
• Bacteria Clostridium acetobutylicum produces
  ethanol naturally
• Bacteria Petroleum artificiali produces
  gasoline

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Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia

• The Stone Age did not end because of lack of
  stones, and the Oil Age will end soon and not
  because of lack of oil.

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3. Earth-based solar energy
6 land blocks of 3 TW are enough for humanity
today
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3. Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna
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3. Moon Energy 20 TWe
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NASA Space Solar Power (in stand-by)
2003-2005
2006-2010
2011-2015
2016-2020
2002
Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for
1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems
SSP Concept definition complete
Technology Testbeds
Studies Proof-of-Concept Technology Research
(TRL 2-4)
Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments
Complete Initial RD for 1 MW to
Full-Scale SSP
Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards
Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL
4-5)
Ground Test very large deployable structures
Complete Initial RD for 1 MW to
Full-Scale SSP
High Power SEPS For Science Probes
High-Power GEO CommSats
High Efficiency Arrays for S/C
Dual-Purpose Applications RD (TRL 4-6)
MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7)
Lunar Power, Large SEPS
Large structures for large apertures solar sails
MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo
50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, ARD, dist.
control)
Technology Demos (TRL 6-7)
MSC 4 (2020)
Component-Level Flight Experiments
1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem
flight demos (SPG/SEPS/WPT)
MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo
LEGEND
RD Decision Point
Major RD Pgm Milestone
Strategic RT Road Map Objective
SSP Model System Concept(s)
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• Scenario 4
• Political
• Turmoil

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4. La geopolítica del petróleoOPEP, Rusia, EUA,
China, Kyoto, Cuba
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4. Dónde están los terroristas?En Afganistán!
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4. Armas de destrucción masiva
Se destruye con - -
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4. The world according to Bush
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Muchas gracias! www.FuturoVenezuela.org www.Corde
iro.org