Globalization, Demography, and International Migration: The Impact on Michigan

1
Globalization, Demography, and International
Migration The Impact on Michigan

• Brendan Mullan
• Department of Sociology
• Michigan State University
• East Lansing, MI 48824
• USA
• Presented to
• CASID/WID Research Forum
• MSU, April 20 2007

2
GLOBALIZATION

• A generalized explanation
• as a historical epoch
• as the confluence of economic phenomena
• as the hegemony of American values
• as a technological and social revolution
• as the decoupling of time space (Giddens)
• As the supremacy of individualism (Friedmans
  Flat World versus Floridas Spiky World)

• A more specific explanation
• The emergence of global currency markets since
  the deregulations of the 1980s
• The transnationalization of technology and the
  rapidity of redundancy
• The competitive pressure on corporations to
  become global
• The globalization of political activity and
  transnational economic diplomacy
• The intensification of global cultural flows,
  communications, and human migration
• The breakdown of geographical boundaries and the
  emergence of new connections between cities,
  regions, and governance structures
• The loss of faith in the capacity of governments
  to manage domestic problems

3
Neoliberal Economic Rationalization

• Another entire literature equates globalization
  with the triumph of economic liberalism or the
  application of economic rationalism to nation
  societies. This approach assumes that markets
  offer, at least in principle, the most reliable
  means of setting values on all goods and that
  economies and markets can, in principle, deliver
  better outcomes that states, governments, and the
  law.

4
A working definition of globalization

• Globalization is the extension of cultural,
  economic, political, social, and technological
  interactions across borders.
• This working definition facilitates both
  historical and contemporary exploration of the
  dynamics undermining and/or strengthening the
  permeability of nation-state boundaries.
• This definition also has the advantage of
  emphasizing that globalization is not simply an
  economic phenomenon but also a socio-cultural
  phenomenon and, especially important for our
  purposes here today, a demographic phenomenon.

5
Demography

• The Multilingual Demographic Dictionary defines
  demography as
• the scientific study of human populations,
  primarily with respect to their size, their
  structure and their development. 
• The dynamics of human populations include
• the size, structure, and distribution of
  populations
• how birth, death, and human movement (migration)
  changes populations over time within and between
  societies
• how socio-economic and socio-cultural factors
  (e.g. education, race, religion, ethnicity)
  influence and are influenced by population size,
  structure, and distribution.

6
The Components of Demography

• Traditional components
• Fertility
• Age Sex
• Proximate Determinants
• Socio-economic Factors
• Mortality
• Age Sex
• Biological Causes
• Socio-economic Factors
• Migration
• Age Sex
• Internal/International
• Causes/Content/Consequences

• Additional Components
• Population Distribution
• Population Policies
• Population Projections
• Population Interactions
• Urbanization
• Poverty
• Environment
• Health
• Family
• Social Institutions

7
An Overview of Global Demographic Trends
8
Demography and Globalization The Demographic
Transition
9
United States Demographic Highlights

• Population Oct-2006 300,000,000
• Births/Deaths per 1,000 14/8
• Projected Pop in 2025  349,419,000
• Projected Pop in 2050 419,854,000
• Lifetime Births/Woman 2.0
• Life Expectancy at Birth 78

10
What These Trends Mean

• Growing at about 1 a year, US is fastest
  growing developed country.
• Many European countries are facing population
  decline
• U.S. population is growing as fast as or faster
  than many developing countries
• By 2035 the West will grow nearly twice the
  national average, while the Northeast and Midwest
  grow at one-half the U.S. total rate

11
Ageing

• US is on the brink of a longevity revolution.
• By 2030, the number of older Americans will have
  more than doubled to 70 million, or one in every
  five Americans
• Seniors in 2030 will be even more racially and
  ethnically diverse than today's seniors
• In the next decade 77 million  baby boomers born
  between 1946 and 1964 will retire
• By 2030 the number of elderly are projected to
  double in 21 States.

12
Reasons for Population Growth

• A relatively high birth rate US Women average
  about two children eachfar higher than most
  European countries
• High rates of immigration 1.2 million people
  immigrate into the country annually.

13
Implications of these Demographic Trends

• US has a unique demographic signature
• America will grow while other modern nations will
  shrink
• US faces less of an aging crisis (than most other
  modern countries)
• There is regional variation in all demographic
  indicators

14
Michigan Population Change by County 2000-2005

• MI Pop ranked 8th in size 2005 and 42nd in
  change 2000-2005 (1.8? )
• 22 counties in Michigan lost
• population, 4 metro and 18
• nonmetro counties.
• UP NE Lower are losing population
• Wayne Co. ? by 6
• Ingham Co. ? by 0.6
• Benzie G.Traverse Livingston (15.7)? by most
  

15
Tri-Fold Classification of Population Change,
2000-2005(Analysis by Rural Policy Research
Institute)
16
Michigan Population Natural Increase by County
2000-2005

• SW SE Lower Peninsula have highest natural
  increase
• NE Lower Pen. UP have lowest natural increase
• Ottawa Co. ? 8.2
• Alcona ? 9.4

17
Age Profile of Michigan Population,
2005(Analysis by Rural Policy Research Institute)
18
Michigan Aged 65 2005, by County

• No county has less than 8.6 of its population
  aged 65
• UP Northern Lower Peninsula have highest aged
  65
• Livingston, Washtenaw, Ingham, Isabella have
  lowest aged 65

19
Hispanic Population of Michigan, 2005(Analysis
by Rural Policy Research Institute)
20
Counties with 20 population Aged 65 (Analysis
by Rural Policy Research Institute)
21
Migration in Michigan Definitions

• Foreign born Immigrants (legal permanent
  residents), temporary migrants (e.g., students),
  humanitarian migrants (e.g., refugees), and
  unauthorized migrants (people illegally residing
  in the United States)
• Natives People residing in the US as citizens
  in one of three categories 1) born in the 50
  states or DC 2) born in Insular Areas such as
  Puerto Rico or Guam and 3) born abroad to at
  least one parent who was a US citizen
• The census does NOT ask about immigration status.
• Foreign Born Status
• Size of foreign born population, 2000 MI ranks
  12th
• Percent foreign born of total population, 2000
  MI ranks 26th

22
Michigan Net Migration by County 2000-2005

• Red is out-migration
• Blue is in-migration
• Livingston County highest in-migration
• Wayne County has highest net out-migration
• Livingston has highest net in-migration

23
Michigan Net Internal Migration by County
2000-2005

• Wayne County has highest out migration
• North west lower peninsula attracts migrants
• Livingston County highest in-migration
• UP receives retirement migration

24
Michigan Net International Migration by County
2000-2005

• Extent of International Migration is
  geographically focused
• Washentaw, Ingham, Kent, Oakland, and Wayne
  Counties predominate
• University/Education effect

25
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The foreign-born population of Michigan grew by
47 percent between 1990 and 2000.

• Between 1990 and 2000, the foreign-born
  population in Michigan increased from 355,393 to
  523,589, representing a 47.3 percent change.
• At the national level, the foreign-born
  population increased from 19.8 million to 31.1
  million, representing a 57.4 percent change.

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In 2000, the foreign born represented about 5
percent of Michigan's total population.

• In 2000, 5.3 percent of Michigan's total
  population was foreign born compared with 3.8
  percent in 1990.
• At the national level, the foreign-born
  population represented 11.1 percent of the total
  population in 2000 compared with 7.9 percent in
  1990.

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Of the total foreign born in Michigan, 45
percent entered the United Statesbetween
1990-2000.

• According to Census 2000, of the total foreign
  born in Michigan, 44.9 percent entered the United
  States between 1990 and 2000.
• At the national level, 42.4 percent of all
  foreign born entered between 1990 and 2000.

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Most of Michigan's foreign born are from Asia.

• Foreign Born in Michigan
• 40 from Asia
• 30 from Europe
• 17 from L. America
• 9.5 from N. America
• 3 from Africa

• Foreign Born in US
• 52 from Latin America
• 26.5 from Asia
• 16 from Europe
• 2.8 from Africa
• 2.7 from N. America

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Top three countries of birth for the foreign
born in Michigan Mexico, Canada, and India.

• According to Census 2000, of the total foreign
  born
• in Michigan
• 11.2 percent were born in Mexico,
• 9.5 percent in Canada, and
• 6.9 percent in India.

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• Geographic Distribution of International
  Migration in Michigan
• Estimated gains through international migration
  have been highest for metropolitan counties and
  counties with large universities.
• With the exception of Houghton Countywhich gains
  a significant number of international migrants
  through Michigan Technological Universitygrowth
  through this component of migration is low
  throughout the Upper Peninsula and the northern
  Lower Peninsula.
• Rates of international migration are assumed to
  be constant over the period covered by these
  estimates.

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Summary of Population Change Pattern in Michigan
2000-04

• Population loss in the UP and northeastern lower
  peninsula due to 1) low international migration,
  2) negative domestic migration, and 3) natural
  population decrease
• Population loss for major metropolitan counties
  due to negative domestic migration that is only
  partially offset by international immigration and
  natural population increase
• Population growth in outlying metropolitan
  counties due to high international domestic
  migration and natural population increase
• High population growth in northwest and north
  central lower peninsula high domestic migration,
  low international migration and low or negative
  natural population increase

33
Percent Distribution of Foreign Born in Detroit
by World Region of Birth in 2000
34
Characteristics of Detroits Foreign Born
Population (MPI Analysis)

• In 2000, 45,541 foreign born accounted for about
  5 of Detroits total population
• Detroits population increased by 8, the foreign
  born population increased by 32 (1990-2000)
• 37 of the foreign born in Detroit entered the US
  between 1995-2000
• 5 countries accounted for 53 of Detroits
  foreign born population
• Mexico
• Iraq
• India
• Canada
• Bangladesh

35
Highest Level of Education for Persons Aged 25
2000 (MPI Analysis)
36
Percent of Persons Living Below the Poverty Line,
Detroit 1999 (MPI Analysis)
26
26.8
30.0
20.3
Foreign Born
Native
Naturalized
Non Citizen
37
Summary of Foreign Born in Detroit (MPI Analysis)

• Detroits population is declining BUT the foreign
  born population increased by 32
• 37 of Detroits foreign born have arrived in the
  last 10 years
• 25 of foreign born in Detroit live in poverty
• 50 of Detroits foreign born have difficulty
  speaking English
• 50 of Detroits foreign born had not completed
  high school

38
Implications for Detroit (MPI Analysis)

• How to integrate the foreign born into Detroits
  social, political, and economic institutions
• Community organizations need help with settlement
  and integration (staff, outreach, expertise)
• Promote naturalization, legal permanent residence
• Create education, housing, and transportation
  systems to facilitate employment

39
Illegal Immigration

• Undocumented population is 11 million (6 million
  Mexicans)
• 80 of Mexican migration is illegal.
• Since mid-1990s the most rapid growth in
  undocumented migrants has been in states that
  previously had relatively small foreign-born
  populations. Arizona and North Carolina are now
  among the states with largest numbers of
  undocumented migrants.
• Although most undocumented migrants are young
  adults, there is also a sizeable childhood
  population. About one-sixth of the population is
  under 18 years of age.

40
Illegal Immigration The Elite Eight (2002-2004)

• California 2,400,000
• Texas 1,400,000
• Florida 850,000
• New York 650,000
• Arizona 500,000
• Illinois 400,000
• New Jersey 350,000
• North Carolina 300,000
• All Others 3,150,000
• Michigan 100,000 150,000
• (Source Pew Hispanic Center, 2004 CPS, Jeffrey
  Passel)

41
Estimated unauthorized population as a percentage
of the total foreign-born population in each state
42
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43
Cost of Illegal Immigration

• Do Illegal Immigrants stifle American competition
  for jobs?
• There is scant evidence that illegal immigrants
  have caused any significant damage to the wages
  of American workers.

44
Do Illegal Immigrants Affect Median Hourly Wage
Levels for Less educated Workers?
8.73 median hourly wage for high-school
drop-outs
8.37
9.08
9.02
9.03
9.84
8.99
8.71
10.05
Source Pew Hispanic Center, Economic Policy
Institute analysis of CPS
Illegal Immigrants as of each states population
45
Concluding Comments

• A 3rd Demographic Transition?(See David
  Colemans Plenary Address to the British Society
  for Population Studies Annual Conference,
  September 2004).
• First Demographic Transition
• An idealized 3- or 4-stage explanation of
  national-level population change through the move
  from high levels of fertility and mortality to
  low levels of fertility and mortality from 1750.
• Migration effects mostly overwhelmed by birth/
  death differentials (Coleman)
• Second Demographic Transition
• Dirk van de Kaa explains family building
  behaviour in a Europe with below-replacement
  fertility
• Shift from legal marriage to cohabitation
• Focus on adults not on children
• Shift from preventive family planning to
  self-fulfilling family-planning
• Shift from uniform to diversified families
  households
• Individualism

46
Colemans Third Demographic Transition

• Posits migration as possible motor of a third
  demographic transition to societies composed of
  new ethnic groups of mixed origin and the
  possible replacement of majority group
• Globalization as the extension of economic,
  political, social, and cultural interactions
  across borders facilitates and encourages the
  migration necessary for this new transition.