Baseline Instruments for the GOESR Series: Providing Major Improvements to Hurricane Observations

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Baseline Instruments for the GOES-R Series
Providing Major Improvements to Hurricane
Observations
Jim Gurka Tim Schmit Tom Renkevens Mark
DeMaria Chris Velden NOAA/NESDIS
IHC March 3-7, 2008 Charleston, SC
UW-Madison
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Overview

• Before GOES-R GOES N, O, P
• GOES-R Series
• Status/ Schedule
• Product Improvements
• Implications for hurricane monitoring/
  prediction
• User Readiness Issues

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GOES Constellation
Primary Requirement Continuity of Capability
N
GOES-11 135 West
GOES-12 75 West
Subsatellite Point
Equator
22,300 Mi
GOES-13 105 West (Spare)
S
Two operational satellites and on-orbit spare

• GOES I-M (8-12) series operational since 1994
• GOES-10 operational at 60º W in support of South
  America beginning December 2, 2006
• GOES-11 operational as GOES West beginning June
  21, 2006
• GOES-12 operational as GOES East beginning April
  1, 2003
• GOES N-P
• GOES-13 launched May 24, 2006, storage at 105º W,
  on-orbit spare as of January 5, 2007
• GOES-O in ground storage (Expected Launch Aug.
  2008)
• GOES-P in ground storage (Expected Launch April
  2010)
• GOES-R series will replace the GOES-N series no
  earlier than 2014
• Note Satellites are labeled with letters on
  the ground and changed to numbers on-orbit

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GOES-R Program Overview
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Launch Schedule
Note Satellites are labeled with letters on the
ground and changed to numbers on-orbit
GOES T and U are currently not baselined for
GOES-R series. Flight procurement includes
these as options.
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GOES-12 vs -13 GOES-N/O/P instrument changes -
better calibration (longer BlackBody looks) -
Better resolution of the 13.3 um on
GOES-O/P GOES-N/O/P bus change - no spring and
fall eclipse outages - reduced Keep Out Zone
outages - better calibration (colder
detectors) - better navigation (earth sensor -gt
star tracker)
GOES-N/P
GOES-8/12
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MI Fires

• 3-Aug-2007
• S. Bachmeier
• CIMSS

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Visible
Shortwave Window
GOES-12
GOES-13
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The Onset Of Hurricane Ivan 16 September 2004
0100 UTC
0200 UTC
0300 UTC
0400 UTC
0500 UTC
0600 UTC
Outage during landfall
0700 UTC
0800 UTC
0900 UTC
GOES-10 -12 Sounder Cloud Top Pressure Coverage
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GOES-R Series Status

• Improvements over current capabilities
• Imager (ABI)
• Better resolution (4X), faster coverage (5X),
  more bands (3X) and more coverage simultaneously
• Lightning detection (GLM)
• Continuous coverage of total lightning flash rate
  over land and water
• Solar/Space Monitoring (SUVI/EXIS / SEISS)
• Better Imager (UV over X-Ray)
• Better Heavy Ion detection, adds low energy
  electrons and protons
• Unique Payload Services
• Higher Data Rates for Environmental Data Relay
• Continued Search and Rescue

• GOES-R
• GOES-R series being developed to replace GOES-N
  series.
• First launch planned no earlier than 2014
• Significant improvement in technology over GOES-I
  and GOES-N series

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ABI Improved Resolution . . .
. . . over a wider spectrum
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The Advanced Baseline Imager
ABI Current Spectral Coverage
16 bands 5 bands Spatial resolution 0.64 mm
Visible 0.5 km Approx. 1 km Other
Visible/nearIR 1.0 km n/a Bands (gt2 mm) 2
km Approx. 4 km Spatial coverage Full disk
4 per hour Every 3 hours CONUS 12
per hour 4 per hour
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ABI spatial coverage rate versus the current GOES
Imager
ABI coverage in 5 minutes
GOES coverage in 5 minutes
The anticipated schedule for ABI will be full
disk images every 15 minutes plus CONUS images
every 5 minutes.
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ABI scans about 5 times faster than the current
GOES imager
There are two anticipated scan modes for the
ABI - Full disk images every 15 minutes 5 min
CONUS images mesoscale. - Full disk every 5
minutes.
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ABI can offer Continental US images every 5
minutes for routine monitoring of a wide range of
events (storms, dust, clouds, fires, winds,
etc). This is every 15 or 30 minutes with the
current GOES in routine mode.
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Franklin
Mesoscale images every 30 seconds for rapidly
changing phenomena (thunderstorms, hurricanes,
fires, etc). Current GOES can not offer these
rapid scans while still scanning other important
regions
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ABI Coverage in 30 minutes
Full Disk
N. Hemisphere
CONUS
Mesoscale
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ABI Bands
Based on experience from
Current GOES Imagers
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Ernesto Special GOES-10 data
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The Eye of Hurricane Luis at 30, 15, 5 and 1
minute Intervals
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Future GOES Imager
Current GOES
September 12, 2003
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Meso-vortices may help in understanding hurricane
intensifications
From J. Kossin, UW/CIMSS
Note the large structural changes within the eye
in just two hours. ABI will afford routine 5
minute data.
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GOES-R AWG Proxy Data
UW/CIMSS Hurricane Katrina WRF Simulation

• WRF NWP Model run on NCSA Supercomputers
• Spatial Resolution 1.5 km, displayed at 2km (ABI
  projection)
• Temporal Resolution
• 15 minute (06 UTC 28 Aug 2005 18 UTC 29 Aug
  2005)
• 5 minute (18 UTC 28 Aug 2005 12 UTC 29 Aug
  2005)
• Radiances
• ABI Bands 8-16 (IR) for all time steps
• Currently Processing ABI Bands 1-7 (Visible/near
  IR)
• Animations showcase simulated ABI and simulated
  GOES-12 Imager

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Satellite-derived winds
Satellite-derived winds will be improved with the
ABI due to - higher spatial resolution (better
edge detection) - more frequent images (offers
different time intervals) - better cloud height
detection (with multiple bands) - new bands may
allow new wind products (1.38 ?m?) - better
NEdTs - better navigation/registration
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From C. Velden, UW/CIMSS
Rapid scan (3-min) low-level winds in the
hurricane eye
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TROPEX(TROpical cyclone Predictability
EXperiments)GOES-12 Rapid Scan Operations Wind
Productshttp//cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropex/

KATRINA
WIND DATA ARCHIVE August-November 2005
June-November 2006
Available Products (upper, mid, lower-level) IR
hourly VIS hourly, 00-02UTC, 12-23UTC SW IR
hourly, 01-12UTC
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Impact of GOES Rapid-Scan Wind Observations on
NOGAPS North Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts Rolf
Langland, NRL-Monterey, USA Chris Velden, CIMSS,
Madison, WI, USA Patricia Pauley, NRL-Monterey,
USA
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Objective Test new satellite data targeting
concept Assimilate additional GOES-12 rapid-scan
winds over large area Do these extra
observations improve hurricane track forecasts?
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Methodology- Katrina case RS-winds assimilated
(as super-obs) every 6 hr starting at 00UTC 20
Aug 2005 through 00UTC 30 Aug 2005
NAVDAS NRL Atmospheric Variational Data
Assimilation System 3dvar NOGAPS NRL
Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
T239L30
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• Experiment 1 Katrina
• Replace regular GOES winds with RS-winds in
  area15N-60N, 60W-110W
• Can we improve a 60hr track forecast that is
  already relatively good ?

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Adjoint of forecast model identifies sensitive
region for Katrina landfall forecast
Forecast is also sensitive to analysis of
upstream short-wave trough
RS-wind vectors
Katrina position at 00UTC 30Aug2005
Katrina position at 00UTC 27Aug2005
Sensitivity around cyclone vortex
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Katrina 60hr landfall forecast Preliminary result
12UTC 29Aug 2005 analyzed position
New Orleans
60h
48h
36h
00UTC 27Aug 2005
24h
12h
NOGAPS-NAVDAS
RESULT Control forecast is already relatively
accurate for a 60h forecast, however RS-wind
forecast reduces the forecast track error by over
50 percent
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Winds from MTSAT-2R Rapid Scan Imagery

• Example data kindly provided by JMA and MRI
  (Nakazawa/Bessho)
• Special Rapid Scan Imagery at 3-min intervals
• Processed into wind vector fields using modified
  automated CIMSS/NESDIS operational code
• Example case from 08GMT, 7th August 2007, during
  TCs Wutip and Pabuk

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Routine Processing (using 15-min imagery)
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Special Processing (using 3-min rapid-scan
imagery)
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Upper-Level Divergence (from Routine Winds)
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Upper-Level Divergence (from Rapid-Scan Winds)
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Upper-Level Divergence (from global model -
NOGAPS)
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High Spectral Resolution Sounder Would Lead to
Additional Dramatic Improvements . . .
With Advanced Sounder
GOES-I/P
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NAST-I Q(p) nearby Raob
Andros Is. Bahamas 12 Sep 98
Raob
NAST
Altitude (km)
Relative Humidity ()
Smith et al, 2004
3km
Distance (75 km)
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Aerosol/Dust Optical Thickness Retrieval Results
from SEVIRI_at_EUMETSAT
Figure courtesy of J. Li and P. Zhang
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Ozone Detection
Strong convection can result in "a local maximum
of total ozone in the core of hurricane, and a
ring of low level of total ozone surrounding the
hurricane.
Hurricane Erin September 2001
http//www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/ozone
_drop.html
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Daily SST Movie Winter Feb - March 2006
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Dvorak Technique

• Tropical cyclones have characteristic evolutions
  of cloud patterns that correspond to stages of
  development and certain intensities

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Satellite-derived rainfall estimates
Satellite-derived precipitation estimates will be
improved for GOES-R - higher spatial resolution
(better depiction of cold cores) - more
frequent images (offers cell growth
information) - new ABI bands (phase information,
better cloud detection) - better NEdTs -
better navigation/registration
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Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

• Mission Objectives
• Provide continuous full-disk lightning
  measurements for storm warning and nowcasting
• Provide longer warnings of tornado activity
• Accumulate a long-term database to track decadal
  changes in lightning activity
• Full Disk Coverage
• Detects Total Strikes
• In Cloud, Cloud To Cloud, And Cloud To Ground
• Compliments Todays Land Based Systems that only
  measures cloud to ground (about 15 of the total
  lightning)
• Increased Coverage Over Oceans And Land
• Currently No Ocean Coverage, And
• Limited Land Coverage In Dead Zones
• Selected Requirements
• Flash POD 70 threshold at EOL (99 goal)
• Flash FAR lt 5
• Ground Sample Distance 10 km threshold 0.5 km
  goal
• Pointing knowledge 4 km threshold 2 km goal

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Continuous GEO Total Lightning will identity
severe storm potential
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GOES-R for Hurricane Forecasting

• GLM will improve tropical cyclone monitoring and
  forecasting
• Improve monitoring of severe thunderstorm
  development during land-falling hurricanes
• Improved understanding of the role of lightning
  in the hurricane life cycle
• ABI and GLM together will improve QPE

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Tropical Cyclone Applications of Lightning Data

• Precursor to TC genesis
• Predictive capability being tested in NESDIS/CIRA
  tropical cyclone formation product
• TC intensification
• Lightning had dual signature
• Shear increase causes asymmetric distribution
• Symmetric distribution near center indicator of
  intensification
• Predictive capability being tested in SHIPS model
• Dissipation forecasting
• Helps determine when convection is no longer
  active
• East Pacific storms moving towards cold water

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GOES-R for Hurricane Forecasting

• ABI impact to hurricane monitoring and
  forecasting
• Intensity
• Monitoring current conditions ABI will provide
  higher quality data for assessing current storm
  conditions due to greater number of channels,
  higher resolution and more frequent scans. This
  will provide more accurate estimates of current
  sustained winds and thus the categorization of
  the storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
• Intensity measurements of current conditions can
  also indirectly benefit intensity forecasts
  through their role as estimates of current
  intensity conditions for initialization of the
  global and/or mesoscale NWP models.
• Direct utilization of imager data in the
  initialization process for the NWP models The
  ABI will provide improved imager data with higher
  spatial, spectral and temporal resolution for
  winds, thereby providing better NWP forecasts for
  winds and vertical shear.
• Improved detection of the Saharan dust layer will
  promote better understanding of conditions
  leading to intensification or weakening
• More frequent observations of total Ozone may
  provide clues to intensification
• Meso vortices shown on ABI loops may provide new
  clues to storm intensification

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User Readiness Issues

• Product Readiness
• Define, develop and implement algorithms
• Product and algorithm validation
• User Delivery Mechanisms
• User Outreach, Education, and Training
• Plans and Budgets

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Recommendations on Risk Reduction

• Provide test data sets well in advance of
  operations
• Leverage NPP synergy and experiences
• Develop and validate new or improved products
  before launch
• Involve the end users at the local level

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Recommendations on Risk Reduction

• Engage existing organizations (i.e. JCSDA)
• Use simulated data sets to test and validate data
  processing and distribution systems
• Ensure sufficient overlap with GOES-N series for
  in orbit validation
• GOES-R system should be tested end-to-end before
  launch

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Education and Training

• Primary Goal Ensure that all data are fully
  utilized immediately following start of
  operations
• Major training venues
• Schools, universities, workshops, conferences,
  online
• Training must be tailored to meet unique user
  needs
• - NWS forecasters
• - FAA meteorologists
• - Coastal service centers
• - Broadcast meteorologists
• - University faculty
• - Commercial and industry
• - International
• - Climatologists
• - Numerical modelers (weather, climate, air
  quality, oceans)

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Education and Training

• Use proving ground concept similar to WSR-88D
• Station extra personnel at
• Coastal service centers
• Selected NWS forecast offices
• National centers
• COMET should be used to provide education for
  professional meteorologists, oceanographers, and
  climatologists
• Learn from what EUMETSAT has accomplished in
  online documentation for image interpretation

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Summary
-All baseline instruments are on track -ABI
will provide -Improved Hurricane monitoring
with better spatial, spectral and temporal
resolution, together with better navigation and
radiometric accuracy -Improved intensity
estimates through improved performance of
ADT -Superior water vapor and dust detection
will provide better identification of dry air
intrusions -Improved winds from cloud and water
vapor displacement will help improve NWP
performance -improved SSTs
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Summary

• GLM will
• -Provide total lightning flash rate and change in
  flash rate over both land and water
• -provides proxy for change in updraft strength
• -Improve monitoring of severe thunderstorm
  development during land-falling hurricanes
• -Lead to improved warning of severe thunderstorms
  during land-falling hurricanes
• -Improved understanding of the role of lightning
  in the hurricane life cycle
• -flash rate can increase as shear increases
• -flash rate will increase as convection
  strengthens
• -Together with ABI provide improved QPE

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6th GOES Users Conference
Bringing Environmental Benefits to a Society of
Users
Boulder/ Broomfield CO September 14-17 2009
Direct Readout Conference Miami FL December 8-12
2008
http//www.goes-r.gov
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Backup Slides
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GOES-R Observational Capabilities
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Katrina
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Rita
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Wilma
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IR channels on the current GOES and on the ABI
The spectral coverage of the ten IR ABI bands.
Spectral coverage from the GOES-12 imager and a
sample high-spectral resolution earth-emitted
spectra.
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IR Spectral Coverage (DS or SW/M)
Example 1
Example 2
Ozone
5
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GOES Lightning Mapper

• Hemispheric Coverage
• Detects intra cloud, cloud to cloud, and cloud to
  ground lightning
• 10 km resolution (1 km goal)
• 1 km mapping accuracy (100 m goal)
• Continuous coverage
• Able to detect gt50 strikes per second
• Able to detect strikes longer than 1 ms

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Hurricane Alberto IR -Window 19 August 2000, 1415
UTC
ABI
GOES-8
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Mountain Waves in WV channel (6.7 µm) 7
April 2000, 1815 UTC
Turbulence
Simulated ABI
Actual GOES-8
Mountain waves over Colorado and New Mexico were
induced by strong northwesterly flow associated
with a pair of upper-tropospheric jet streaks
moving across the elevated terrain of the
southern and central Rocky Mountains. The
mountain waves appear more well-defined over
Colorado in fact, several aircraft reported
moderate to severe turbulence over that region.
Both images are shown in GOES projection.
UW/CIMSS
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Advanced Sounder

• NOAA continues to have validated requirements
  best satisfied by measurements from advanced
  hyperspectral sounder in GEO orbit
• NOAA is committed to developing a next generation
  operational advanced geostationary sounder
• Demo mission would help ensure appropriate risk
  level for operational satellite acquisition
  program

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Sounding Product Comparison
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Advantages of r/s satellite data for targeting
tropical cyclone forecasts Sample more of the
complete target structure, in addition to the
localized areas of maximum sensitivity
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GOES-R for Hurricane Forecasting

• ABI impact to hurricane monitoring and
  forecasting
• Track
• ABI data will contribute to reducing track
  forecast errors due to increased precision
  through better spatial resolution and temporal
  resolution better signal-to-noise ratio better
  image navigation and more channels/bands
  generating better cloud height detection. These
  features would provide higher quality data for
  initialization of current conditions into the NWP
  models.
• Tropical storm wind speed probabilities
• Indirect benefit of GOES-R data due to reduced
  intensity and track forecast errors
• Storm size and structure
• Higher quality imager data for initialization of
  current conditions in HWRF and other models this
  would be due to providing better viewing and
  resolution with more channels for winds and
  convective clouds.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST)
• Higher resolution for measuring SST

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Example of WWLLN Lightning Data
Daily strikes Sept 10-20, 2006