Overview of Split Sentencing Research October 25, 2006 Mark Rubin

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Overview of Split Sentencing Research October
25, 2006Mark Rubin
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Presentations given to subcommittee

• Exploring the Relationship between Split
  Sentences and Probation Recidivism in Maine -
  July 27, 2006
• Who gets a Split Sentence in Maine? - August 2,
  2006
• Who is getting revoked on probation? - September
  21, 2006

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Study Parameters/Methodology

• Examined 2004 and 2005 populations of individuals
  entering probation via
• Split Sentence (spent some time in jail or prison
  just before entering probation
• Straight Probation (received a sentence of
  probation without any jail or prison time

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Exploring the relationship between sentence type,
risk, recidivism, and revocations

• Examined the following variables in the analysis
• Risk Level (LSI-R scores)
• Crime type (MEJIS index and Class)
• Region
• Jail/Prison split
• Number of Priors
• Demographic variables (gender, age, education,
  race,et al.)
• Criminogenic factors, including criminal
  histories (number of priors)
• Shock Sentence
• Probation revocations by type of offense (new
  crime vs. technical)
• Revocations by risk level
• Revocation information by sentence type

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Who gets a Split Sentence?
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Twice as many split sentenced offenders entered
probation in 2004 and 2005 as those with a
straight probation sentence
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The likelihood of a split sentence correlates
with LSI Rating
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Split sentences are the majority of sentences
whether the crime is a Felony or a Misdemeanor
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There appear to be regional differences in
sentencing practices
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Most offenders receive a split sentence of less
than 45 days
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Offense types by LSI
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Exploring the Relationship between Split
Sentences and Probation Recidivism
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Split Sentenced probationers have higher
recidivism rates than probationers receiving a
straight sentence
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The data suggests first time/one time offenders
may have worse outcomes when receiving a split
sentence versus straight probation
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Lower risk offenders appear to have statistically
higher recidivism rates when receiving a split
sentence
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Offenders convicted of certain crimes appear to
have statistically higher recidivism rates when
receiving a split sentence
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Recidivism rates are higher for shock sentences
than straight probation, especially after 30
days.
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Concluding Thoughts

• Split Sentence probationers appear to have higher
  recidivism rates than straight probationers even
  after accounting for specific characteristics.
• However, sentencing practices are at best weakly
  related to a recidivist outcome. Other factors
  play a role, such as AFA, Priors, Current Age,
  Education, Married.
• It appears that split sentencing has a more
  profound impact on lower risk offenders as to
  whether they recidivate.

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Who is getting revoked?
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Revocations rise dramatically as risk levels rise
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The higher the risk level of the offender the
more likely s/he is to be revoked for a technical
violation
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Split sentenced probationers have higher
revocation rates
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Technical violations are the most common type of
revocation violation regardless of sentence type
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Take away points on revocations

• Half of the revocations are for technical
  violations
• Administrative cases are 50 less likely to be
  revoked than moderate cases
• Split Sentences have higher revocation rates than
  straight probation cases