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Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMC Status, Tools,

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Title: Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP RMC Status, Tools,


1
Emissions and Air Quality Modeling at the WRAP
RMC Status, Tools, Process
  • Zac Adelman
  • Center for Environmental Modeling for Policy
    Development

WRAP Technical Oversight Committee - Denver, CO
July 29-30, 2008
2
WRAP RMC Structure
  • UC-Riverside, CE-CERT
  • Gail Tonnesen (RMC Project Manager)
  • Project and contract management
  • Meteorology, emissions, air quality modeling
  • Data analysis and model development
  • Computing system and data management
  • ENVIRON, Corp.
  • Ralph Morris
  • Meteorology, emissions, air quality modeling
  • Data analysis and emissions model development
  • Emission inventory development
  • UNC, Institute for the Environment
  • Zac Adelman
  • Emissions modeling and data analysis

3
RMC Modeling Challenges
  • Large scale data collection/collation effort
  • Missing and/or deficient emission inventories
  • e.g. wildfire, dust, anthropogenic ammonia,
    commercial shipping
  • Complexities in applying the available modeling
    and analysis tools to meet WRAP needs
  • Data management and storage requirements
  • Modeling system development and management
  • Computing system development, management, and
    maintenance
  • Technical outreach and modeling support
  • Goal Address these issues with the next
    generation set of modeling tools

4
The Evolution of RMC Modeling
  • Modeling infrastructure development (personnel,
    hardware, software)
  • Identify and understand key scientific issues
  • Tool development
  • Application
  • Reporting and documentation

5
State of the Modeling Systems
  • Air Quality Modeling system components
  • Meteorology
  • Emissions
  • Chemistry-Transport
  • Data analysis/Visualization
  • Model distribution portals
  • NCAR emissions, meteorology, CTM, analysis
  • CMAS emissions, CTM, analysis
  • U.S. EPA
  • Primary developers
  • EPA does not prescribe specific models or
    approaches

6
State of the Modeling Systems
  • Emissions
  • Refine existing processes, add new
    sources/processes
  • Integrate with databases, improve performance and
    transparency
  • Chemistry-Transport
  • Chemistry improvements, SOA models, PM dynamics
  • Probing tools
  • Meteorology
  • Integrated Met-Chem
  • Analysis/Case Management
  • Java visualization tools
  • Integrated database-statistical analysis programs
  • Emissions sensitivity and simulation tracking
    frameworks
  • Documentation
  • Inline, online, users guides, science documents,
    primary literature

7
Modeling System Status Emissions
  • SMOKE (http//www.smoke-model.org)
  • Current release version 2.4 (March, 2008)
  • air toxics, EDMS (FAA) interface, BEIS3.13
  • Developer UNC-IE
  • Next release minor bug fixes (Late, 2008)
  • CONCEPT (http//www.conceptmodel.org)
  • Current release version 0.60 (March, 2005)
  • link-based mobile, stationary area, point
    processing
  • Developers Alpine Geophysics, ENVIRON, UCR
  • Next release
  • MEGAN (http//acd.ucar.edu/guenther/MEGAN/MEGAN.h
    tm)
  • Current release version 2.04 (October, 2007)
  • Biogenic emissions, high resolution land-cover,
    SOA precursors
  • Developer NCAR-ACD
  • Next release

8
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ (http//www.cmaq-model.org)
  • Current release version 4.6 (October, 2007)
  • air toxics, CB-05, aerosol chemistry updates,
    carbon and sulfate tracking
  • Developer US EPA-ORD
  • Next release 4.7 (October, 2008)
  • SOA model enhancements
  • isoprene SOA, sesquiterpene SOA, polymerization,
    acid-catalyzed SOA, NOx-dependent SOA yields, and
    updates to dHvap
  • In-cloud SOA formation pathways
  • Gas-phase mechanism improvements for SOA
    precursors
  • Coarse PM
  • Semi-volatile inorganic aerosol components can
    condense and evaporate from the coarse mode via
    dynamic mass transfer
  • Nonvolatile sulfate can condense on the coarse
    mode
  • Water is allowed to exist in the coarse mode
    determined by equilibrium with ambient RH
  • Variable standard deviation of coarse mode size
    distribution

9
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ cont
  • Version 4.7 Updates
  • Aerosols (misc)
  • Gamma N2O5 updates to heterogeneous reaction
  • Re-derived parameterization based on Davis et al.
    (2008)
  • Chemistry
  • HONO enhancements
  • Heterogeneous reaction on aerosol and ground
    surfaces
  • Emissions from mobile sources
  • Photolysis module
  • In-line calculation, with aerosol feedback
    (optional)
  • Satellite cloud data (optional)
  • Aqueous Chemistry
  • Update Henry's Law constants
  • SOA Production (Glyoxyl, methylglyoxyl chemistry)
  • Add Cl2 chemistry to base CB05 mechanism

10
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ cont
  • Version 4.7 Updates
  • Dry Deposition
  • Move calculation to CMAQ (optional)
  • Bi-directional NH3 sfc flux (optional)
  • Emissions
  • Biogenic emissions
  • Move BEIS into CMAQ (optional)
  • Add sesquiterpene emissions
  • Move Plume-rise into CMAQ (optional)
  • Sea-salt emissions
  • Spatial Allocator to produce ocean file
  • Update flux parameterizations surf zone
    emissions

11
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ cont
  • Version 4.7 Updates
  • Other upgrades to v4.7
  • Multi-pollutant model (aero5)
  • Ozone, PM, Hg, air toxics, visibility, Cl
  • Carbon apportionment model
  • Sulfate tracking model Capability
  • Direct Decoupled Method (DDM)
  • Updates for new aerosol

12
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ cont
  • Beyond version 4.7
  • Two-way Coupled WRF/CMAQ
  • Feedbacks from the chemistry model to the
    meteorological model
  • High time resolution data exchange
  • Chemistry/transport/deposition calculations
    on-line (and fully synchronized) with
    meteorological calculations
  • Alternative gas-phase chemical mechanisms
  • SAPRC-2007
  • RACM2
  • Aerosols
  • Speciation of fine soil, non-carbon organic
    matter
  • Source Apportionment of PMother
  • Clouds
  • Rosenbrock solver for aqueous chemistry
  • Grell sub-grid cloud module
  • Dry Deposition
  • Mosaic land-use approach
  • NLCD

13
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • MCIP (http//www.cmaq-model.org)
  • Current release version 3.3 (October, 2007)
  • air toxics, aerosol chemistry updates, carbon and
    sulfate tracking
  • Developer US EPA-ORD
  • Next release 3.4 (October, 2008)
  • Support for UAH satellite processing (if invoked
    by the user)
  • Support for WRF urban canopy model (if used in
    WRF)
  • Updates for WRFv3 (released April 2008).
  • Support for 33-category USGS land use (if used in
    WRF)
  • Five new air toxic dry deposition velocities
  • 2-m mixing ratio in METCRO2D (for verif/eval)

14
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • MCIP cont
  • Version 3.4 Updates
  • New specification of WRF header variables for I/O
    API. (XCENT, YCENT, XORIG, YORIG)
  • User-definable earth radius (hidden, via
    namelist). Default matches MM5 WRF defaults
  • Slight change to MM5 vertical coordinate
    definition (Jacobian, etc.) by adjusting
    constants to match MM5
  • Improved support for PX and NOAH LSMs,
    particularly for WRF
  • Output TKE from MM5/WRF (if available)
  • Additional metadata in output (nudging coeffs,
    earth radius)

15
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ-AMSTERDAM (http//www.cmascenter.org)
  • Next generation MADRID sectional aerosol model
  • Release TBD (fall 2008?)
  • Developer AER, Inc.
  • Also includes APT plume-in-grid
  • CMAQ-DDM (http//www.cmaq-model.org)
  • Current release version CMAQv4.7 (October, 2008)
  • Developer Georgia Tech
  • Technique to determine the sensitivity of a CTM
    to emissions changes alternative to brute force
    sensitivities

16
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CMAQ-Adjoint (http//people.cs.vt.edu/asandu/Soft
    ware/CMAQ_ADJ)
  • Current release version CMAQv4.5
  • Developer Virginia Tech, CalTech, U. of Houston
  • 4-D gas-phase chemical data assimilation
  • CMAQ-TSSA
  • Current release version CMAQv4.3 and 4.4
  • Developer UC-Riverside
  • Tagged-species source apportionment
  • Hemispheric CMAQ
  • Current release version In development
  • Developer UNC-IE
  • Emissions and chemistry updates for
    proof-of-concept approach to use CMAQ as an
    alternative to GCMs for BCs to continental-scale
    simulations

17
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CAMx (http//www.camx.com)
  • Developer ENVIRON, Corp.
  • Current release version 4.5.1 (May 22, 2008)
  • Ozone, PM, visibility, mercury and air toxics
    one-atmosphere photochemical grid modeling
    system
  • Two-way grid nesting
  • Plume-in-Grid (PiG)
  • CB05, CB-IV, SAPRC chemistry
  • RADM aqueous-phase chemistry
  • ISORROPIA aerosol thermodynamics
  • Probing Tools
  • Ozone (OSAT) and PM (PSAT) source apportionment
  • Decoupled Direct Method (DDM)
  • Process Analysis (PA)
  • Reactive Tracer (RTRAC)

18
Modeling System Status Air Quality
  • CAMx version 4.5.1 cont
  • New Features
  • Updated SOA module
  • SOA from sesquiterpenes and isoprene
  • Polmerization of SOA
  • New biogenic SOA precursors generated by MEGAN
    biogenic emissions model
  • Updated PiG module
  • Full chemistry in PiG
  • Gaussian pluff distribution
  • Subgrid-scale receptor grid for sampling live
    puffs
  • CAMx next release (Fall, 2008)
  • Higher Order DDM (HDDM)
  • Chemistry Updates

19
Modeling System Status Integrated
Meteorology-Chemistry
  • 2-way coupling, chemical feedbacks to meteorology
  • WRF-Chem (http//ruc.fsl.noaa.gov/wrf/WG11/public.
    htm)
  • Current release version Version 3.0 (April,
    2008)
  • Developers NCAR et al,
  • Meteorology, emissions, chemistry
    parameterizations
  • WRF-CMAQ (http//www.cmaq-model.org)
  • Release CMAQv4.7 (2009)
  • Developer US EPA/ORD
  • Full CMAQ CTM tightly coupled to WRF

20
Modeling System Status Meteorology
  • MM5 (http//www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5)
  • Current release version 3-7 (December, 2004)
  • Developer PSU, NCAR
  • No longer in development, still widely used for
    driving CTMs
  • WRF (http//www.wrf-model.org)
  • Current release version 3.0 (April, 2008)
  • Developer NCAR et al.
  • Development in 2 cores
  • Advanced Research WRF (ARW)
  • Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)
  • Current multi-scale meteorology model supported
    through NCAR

21
Modeling System Status Visualization
  • PAVE (http//www.cmascenter.org)
  • Current release version 2.3 (August, 2005)
  • Developer UNC-IE
  • No longer in development
  • VERDI (http//www.verdi-tool.org)
  • Current release version 1.03 (May, 2008)
  • Developer Argonne NL
  • Java replacement to PAVE
  • IDV (http//www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/idv/)
  • Current release version 2.5
  • Developer NCAR
  • Java integrated 3-d visualization system

22
Modeling System Status Analysis
  • AMET (http//www.cmascenter.org)
  • Current release version 1.1 (May, 2005)
  • Developer US EPA/ORD
  • Meteorology and air quality observation database
    with utilities for computing model performance
    statistics and graphics
  • BENMAP (http//www.benmap-model.org)
  • Current release version 2.4.8 (October, 2008)
  • Developer US EPA
  • Uses gridded CTM output to calculate health and
    economic impacts

23
Modeling System Status Sensitivity and Case
Management
  • EMF
  • URL TBD
  • Current release version not yet released,
    soliciting pilot sites
  • Developers EPA/OAQPS, UNC-IE
  • Emissions data and case management framework
    work in progress to extend to CMAQ
  • CoST
  • Current release version not yet released
  • Developer UNC-IE
  • Calculates costs/economic impacts of emissions
    control strategies and manages emissions
    sensitivities
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