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Closing the Culture Gap

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New Democrat Formula for Closing the Cultural Gap and Breaking the Tie in American Politics ... Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Closing the Culture Gap


1
Closing the Culture Gap
  • The Key to Breaking the Tie
  • in American Politics
  • Presentation by Al From
  • The Democratic Leadership Council's
  • National Conversation
  • Indianapolis, Indiana
  • July 16,2001
  • www.ndol.org

2
Closing the Cultural Gap
The Key to Breaking the Tie In American Politics
?The New Electorate and the New Political
Context ?What we learned from the 2000 Election
?The New Democrat Formula for Closing the
Cultural Gap and Breaking the Tie in American
Politics
3
The Parties at Parity
4
Parity in 2000
The Tie in American Politics
5
The Parties at Parity
The Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics
6
The Parties at Parity
The Tie in the House
7
The Parties at Parity
The Reasons
?The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate
?The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics
in the Industrial Age are Collapsing
?A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape
for the Information Era
8
The New Electorate
  • PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS
  • Industrial Era Working Class
  • -------------------------------------------------
    ---
  • Information Age Rising Learning Class
  • -------------------------------------------------
    ----

9
Voters Family Incomes 1980 to 2000
10
An Affluent Electorate
Characteristics of 2000 Voters
11
Educational Attainment
Percentage of voters with a college degree
12
Diversity
13
The Suburbs Rule
Percentage of Voters 2000
14
The Suburban Swing
Congressional Seats
15
From City to Suburb
Percentage of Statewide Vote
16
The Union Vote
Coming Back But Still Below 1984
17
Wired Voters
Percentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet
18
Generational Change
In the 2000 Election
? Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New
Deal Era voters. ? The dominant generations are t
he skeptical generations--the Baby Boomers,
GenXers and GenYers.
19
Political Views
20
Party Identification
Percentage of Voters
21
The 2000 Election
22
The Diminishing Economic Class Divisions
Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat
23
The Missing Middle
Democrats Win Least and Best Educated
24
Missing the Mark
Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in
2000
25
Missing the Target
The Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000
Post Grad
College Grad
Some College
High School Grad
HS Dropout
Over 100K
75 - 100K
50 75K
30 50K
15 30K
Under 15K
26
Message Matters
(All Voters)
If a candidate for President said this, would it
have made
Much
More/
you much more likely, somewhat more likely,
somewhat
less likely, or much less likely to vote for them
for
More
Less
President?
Likely
Likely
Top Arguments Ranked by Much more likely
46
79/15
I want to
change the tone
in Washington enough fighting.

Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will
find ways to work
together in a bipartisan manner to get things
done for America.
41
78/15
I believe in an America that offers
opportunity for all
, demands
responsibility from all, and fosters a community
of all, with a
government that equips all Americans with the
tools they need
for economic success.
I believe very deeply that you have to be willing
to stand up and
41
70/24
fight no matter what powerful forces might be on
the other side
big oil companies, big polluters, big
pharmaceutical
people
companies, and big tobacco. This election is
about the
v. the powerful
.
27
Message Matters
(Key Voter Categories B Much More Likely

Gore

Bush

Bush

Voters

Voters

Swing

Change the Tone

42

51

57

Opportunity for All

45

36

44

People Vs. the Powerful

53

27

32


28
The Cultural Gap
National

Democratic Margin



All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Men

48

3

-
1

-
10

9

Women

52

8

16

11

5








White Men

48

-
3
-
11

-
24

13


White Women

52

Even

5

-
1

6







White

81

-
1

-
3

-
12

9

Black

10

73

72
81

-
9


Hispanic

7

36

51

27

24


29
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin by Race
30
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin by Gender
31
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin Among White Men and Women
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
32
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin By Marital Status

All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Married

65

-
1

-
2

-
9

7

No

35


16

19

-
3







Child under 18

39

2

7

-
7

14

No

61


8

4

4







Married/Child

31



-
15


No

69



7








Work Woman

31

(29)10

21

19

2

No

69


3

-
8

11


33
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin on Guns and Abortion

All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Gun Owner

48


-
13 (37)

-
25

12

No

52


17 (63)

19

-
2







Abortion






Always Lgl

23

(34)38

(25)48

45

3

Mostly Lgl

33

(29)11

(35)22

20

2

Mostly Illeg

27

(23)
-
30

(25)
-
25

-
40

15

Always Illeg

13

(9)
-
39

(12)
-
45

-
52

7


34
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin by Religion

All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Attend Church






More / Weekly

14

Regularly


-
27


Weekly

28

(42)
-
12


-
17


Monthly

14



5


Seldom

28



12


Never

14



29








Protestant

54

-
9

-
9

-
14

5

Catholic

26

9

16

3

13

Jewish

4

69

62

60

2

White Prot

56 (of
-
14

-
17

-
29

12

whites)

White Cath

25 (of
5

7

-
7

14

whites)


35
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin by Ideology, Party
and Role of Government


All 2000

1992

1996

2000

96/2000







Liberal

20

54

67

67

----

Moderate

50

16

24

8

16

Conservative

29

-
48

-
51

-
64

13







Democrat

39

67

74

75

-
1

Republican

35

-
63

-
67

-
83

16

Independent

27

6

8

-
2

10







Govt. Should






Do
More

43

44 (36)

52 (41)
51

1


Do Less

53

-
22 (55)

-
30 (52)

-
46

16


36
The Swing States
Swing States
GOP Base
Demo Base
37
The Swing States Electoral Votes
Democratic Base

Republican Base
In Play


States Dems Won

States Reps Won

States That Split

1992, 1996 2000

1992, 1996 2000
1992, 1996 2000





Electoral Votes

Electoral Votes

Electoral Votes

State

2000

2004

State

20
00

2004

State

2000

2004










California

54

55

Alabama

9

9

Arizona

8

10

Connecticut

8

7

Alaska

3

3

Arkansas

6

6

Delaware

3

3

Idaho

4

4

Colorado

8

9

D.C.

3

3

Indiana

12

11

Florida

25

27

Hawaii

4

4

Kansas

6

6

Georgia

13

15

Illinois

22

21

Mississippi

7

6

Kentucky

8

8

Iowa

7

7

Nebraska

5

5

Louisiana

9

9

Maine

4

4

N. Car

14

15

Missouri

11

11

Maryland

10

10

N. Dakota

3

3

Montana

3

3

Mass

12

12

Oklahoma

8

7

Ne
vada

4

5

Michigan

18

17

S. Car

8

8

N. Hamp

4

4

Minnesota

10

10

S. Dakota

3

3

Ohio

21

20

New Jersey

15

15

Texas

32

34

Tennessee

11

11

N. Mexico

5

5

Utah

5

5

W.Virginia

5

5

New York

33

31

Virginia

13

13




Oregon

7

7

Wyoming

3

3




Penn

23

21







R. Island

4

4







Vermont

3

3







Washington

11

11







Wisconsin

11

10
















Total

267

260

Total

135

135

Total

136

143
































38
The New Democrat Approach
39
What is a New Democrat?
?New Democrats are the modernizers of the
Democratic Party ?We further our partys enduring
values with new and innovative ideas
40
Core Principles
  • Opportunity Growth
  • Global Outlook
  • The
  • New Democrat Philosophy
  • Traditional Values
  • Mutual Responsibility
  • Empowering Government

41
The New Democrat Philosophy
Americas Basic Bargain
? Opportunity for All ? Responsibility from All
? Community of All
42
Where New Democrats Stand
?for economic growth and opportunity
?for fiscal responsibility ?for work, not welfare
?for strengthening families ?for preventing cri
me and punishing criminals ?for non-bureaucratic,
empowering government ?for fostering a new sense
of community and an ethic of mutual
responsibility by asking citizens to give
something back to their country
43
Role of Government
What is the Proper Role of the Federal Goverment?
44
Government and the Economy
What Role Should the Federal Goverment Play in
the Economy?
45
Closing the Cultural Gap
Lessons From the Clinton Victories
?Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not
Redistribution ?Emphasize New Democrat Positions
on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare
?Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government
?Support Family Friendly Policies that Help
Parents Raise Kids ?Support a Strong National Def
ense ?Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issue
s Like Abortion or Guns
46
The Winning Coalition in 2004
A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century
? The Democratic Base and Beyond
? Men and Women ? Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic
? Urban and Suburban ? Moderates as well as Liber
als ? Working Class and Rising Learning Class
47
The Bottom Line
In a Time of Parity Message Matters More
?The Next Progressive Majority will be built
around ideas and values, not interest groups.
?How we frame our message is likely to be the
difference between victory and defeat.
?The best government is the best politics. If we
have good ideas that tend to the needs of
ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the
politics will take care of itself.
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