IHDP Structure

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IHDP New Initiative on Urbanization and Global
Environmental Change
Karen C. Seto Stanford University Beijing,
02/18/05
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Urbanization and Global Environmental Change
WHY Urban Areas?
Source UNCHS 2002
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Urban Population as Percentage of Total Population
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Megacities 2015

• 1950 4, 1980 28, 2002 39, 2015 59 megacities
  worldwide 2/3 in developing countries, resp.
  South and East Asia
• 2002 394 Mio. people, of these 246 Mio. in
  developing countries, oder 215 Mio. in Asia in
  the year 2015 604 Mio. worldwide
• Population data tripled between 1970 and 2000
  e.g. Mexico City, São Paulo, Seoul, Mumbai,
  Jakarta, Teheran

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Urbanization and Global Environmental Change
Urban Areas
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Urbanization and Global Environmental Change

• Unemployment
• Environmental degradation
• Deficiencies in urban
  services and adequate housing
• Deterioration of existing infrastructure
• Lack of access to key resources
• Violence
• Social exclusion

Only Crisis ?
Urban Areas
Also Solutions ?

• Driving forces in economic growth (80 of future
  growth)
• Reference points for today's globalization
• Nexus of commerce gateways to the world's
  economy
• Potential for efficient use of infrastructure
  and resources
• Natural place for intervention to change
  production and consumption patterns to reduce
  their adverse effects on GEC
• Local action with global effect (esp. in
  Megacities)
• Driving forces for economic growth and social
  well-being

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Urban areas are also driving forces for economic
growth and social well-being. In the Developing
World, as much as 80 per cent of future economic
growth will occur in urban areas (World Bank
2000).
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Urbanization and Global Environmental Change
Urban Areas
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Urbanization and Global Environmental Change
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Urbanization and Global Environmental Change
Urbanization and Global Environmental Change
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Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Megacities on
the Coastal Zone
Source CIESIN 2001
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Temperature / Precipitation - Health
Consequences

• Aggravating Factors
• Incomplete urbanization and poor sanitation are
• breading ground for disease organisms and vectors
• Sewage collection/treatment
• Waste collection/treatment
• Drinking water (quality and
• distribution)
• Urban growth in flood
• prone areas

Malaria Dengue Yellow Fever Encephalitis
Vector-Borne Diseases
Temperature and Precipitation Increase
Cardio- vascular and respiratory illness
Heat Related Morbidity and Mortality
Asthma ARI
Air Pollution
Urban and Housing Conditions
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Natural Disasters and Megacities
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Global Environmental Change and Urban Areas
Urban and Peri-urban Areas
Geopolitical, Socio-Economic Processes
(Global, Regional Local)
Biophysical Processes (Global, Regional
Local)
Vulnerability/Adaptation
Urban Function / Form
Health and Well-Being
Institutions/ Governance
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Cultural
Seeking New Approaches
Multi dimensional and Multi scale Processes
Economic
Processes
Social
Political
Theory / Methods
Biophysical
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• Urban Studies
• Sociology
• Economy
• Politics
• Anthropology
• Planning
• Environmental
• Studies
• Political Economy

• Climate
• Urban Climate
• Impact Studies
• Hydrology
• Ecology
• Geology
• Public Health

Human Dimensions of Global Environmental
Change
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New IHDP core project on Urbanization
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IHDP Project on Urbanization
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IHDP Project on Urbanization
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Earth System
Urban Sub-System
Global Environment Sub-System

• Human/Social Component
• Population
• Markets Infrastructure
• Institutions
• Culture
• Biophysical Component
• Built environment
• Urban-rural land use gradient

• Climate Change
• GHG emissions
• Flooding
• Sea level rise
• SST increase
• LUCC
• Deforestation
• Salinization
• Desertification
• Agricultural intensification
• Urban expansion
• Biodiversity
• Species extinction

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New IHDP core project on Urbanization
Theme 1 Urban Processes that Contribute to
Global Environmental Change
Goal A better understanding of the underlying
human and physical processes that contribute to
global environmental change

• Research Questions
• (1.1) How do lifestyles and consumption
  patterns within areas contribute to GEC?
• (1.2) How does urban land use and land cover
  change affect GEC?
• (1.3) What are the zones of influence of urban
  systems, and how do these social and biophysical
  teleconnections affect GEC?

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New IHDP core project on Urbanization
Theme 2 Pathways through which Global
Environmental Change Affects the Urban System
Goal To better understand the pathways through
which specific types of global environmental
change affects local and regional processes and
well being (economic activities, livelihoods,
migration patterns, human health)

• Research Questions
• (2.1) What are the main processes by which global
  environmental change affects human behavior and
  interactions?
• (2.2) How do global environmental change
  contribute to shaping the built environment?
• (2.3) How do GECs affect the resource base upon
  which urban systems rely?

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New IHDP core project on Urbanization
Theme 3 Interactions and Responses within the
Urban System
Goal Better understanding of the impact of
global environmental change on urban systems and
the responses to these impacts within them are
shaped by the interactions among its
socioeconomic and geopolitical processes and
environmental dimensions

• Research Questions
• (3.1) How do these interactions between the human
  and the physical systems shape the impact of
  global environmental change?
• (3.2) How do the interactions between the human
  and physical systems shape the responses to
  global environmental change?
• (3.3) How do the impacts of global environmental
  change affect livelihoods in urban communities?

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New IHDP core project on Urbanization
Theme 4 Consequences of Interactions within
Urban Systems on Global Environmental Change

• Research Question
• (4) How do the result of interactions within the
  urban system modify the impacts on various
  components of global environmental change?

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Objectives of IHDP Project on Urbanization
Coordination frame of research Analyisis of
Interactions between global environmental change
and urban processes Rate, intensity and scale of
urban and environmental change and mutual
impacts Pathways of transformations of urban
systems Challenges for sustainability of urban
areas Development of conceptual frameworks and
methodologies Translation and communication of
scientific research results to
decision-makers, practitioners, and other
end-users
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Implementation of IHDP Project on Urbanization
Cross temporal and spatial approaches and
regional comparative analyses Emerging foci
carbon, water, health, vulnerability studies,
peri-urban landscapes Contribution to regional
and global integrated models Scientific basis
for urban planning and management
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Timeline for IHDP Urbanization Project

• March 2005
• Approval of Science Plan by IHDP Scientific
  Committee
• Nomination of core Scientific Steering Committee
  by IHDP Scientific Committee
• October 2005
• 6th Open Meeting, Bonn, Germany
• Presentation of Urbanization Project to
  international community

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Urbanization Project Planning Team

• Frauke Kraas (Germany) Asia
• Ooi Giok-Ling (Singapore) Asia
• Kwasi Nsiah-Gyabaah (Ghana) Africa
• Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (USA) Mexico and
  South America
• Karen Seto (USA) China and Vietnam
• David Simon (UK) Africa
• William Solecki (USA) China and USA
• IHDP Chair and Vice-Chair invites Chinas IHDP
  National Committee to nominate 1 person for
  Urbanization Scientific Steering Committee
• Core members