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GM and the Automobile Market: Context

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Title: GM and the Automobile Market: Context


1
GM and the Automobile Market Context
  • Clay Carroll
  • Saira Gillani
  • Elysha Shipley
  • Andrea Young

2
Demographics
3
Demographics
  • US population
  • Racial Percentages
  • Baby Boomers
  • Generation Y
  • World population
  • Current Leaders
  • Future Population Leaders

4
US Population1
5
US Population1
6
US Population1
7
Racial Population Percentages3
  • As of 2000 Census (major groups)
  • 69 percent White (slowest growing)
  • 13 percent Hispanic (fastest growing)
  • 12 percent Black
  • 4 percent Asian or Pacific Islander

8
The Biggest TargetsBaby Boomers4
  • Own more than 70 of U.S. financial assets
  • Control 70 of U.S. households
  • Purchase 61 of all new cars and 48 of all
    luxury cars
  • Account for more than 2 trillion in income
  • More than 79 own homes
  • Use more traditional forms of shopping
  • More inclined to purchase American brand names
  • Buying cars they wanted in their youth but could
    not afford (i.e. Muscle cars)
  • Larger portion of this market will be female as
    they grow older.

9
The Biggest Targets Generation Y5
  • Technology is a foundation of their education
    (reading, writing, arithmetic, and
    point-n-click).
  • More diverse than any previous US Generation in
    race and household structure (i.e. single
    parents, etc.)
  • Now entering high spending years of early
    adulthood
  • Internet is the main channel of media,
    information, and communication.
  • Views direct marketing aimed at them negatively
    due to growing up with marketing saturation.

10
World Population1
11
World Population1
12
Current Top Ten Countries by Population2
  • China
  • India
  • United States
  • Indonesia
  • Brazil
  • Pakistan
  • Russia
  • Bangladesh
  • Nigeria
  • Japan
  • 1,300,000,000
  • 1,087,000,000
  • 294,000,000
  • 219,000,000
  • 179,000,000
  • 159,000,000
  • 144,000,000
  • 141,000,000
  • 137,000,000
  • 128,000,000

13
Future Top Ten Countries by Population (2050)2
  • India
  • China
  • United States
  • Indonesia
  • Nigeria
  • Pakistan
  • Bangladesh
  • Brazil
  • Congo, Dem. Rep. of
  • Ethiopia
  • 1,628,000,000
  • 1,437,000,000
  • 420,000,000
  • 308,000,000
  • 307,000,000
  • 295,000,000
  • 280,000,000
  • 221,000,000
  • 181,000,000
  • 173,000,000

14
Population Data
  • The Worlds Population is Growing at a decreasing
    rate
  • Third world countries are experiencing the most
    rapid growth
  • US is more Diverse than ever before with the
    minority population growing at a rapid rate
  • India will soon pass China as the worlds most
    populated country
  • The African Continent has many countries with
    high populations that are growing

15
Sociocultural Trends
16
What Americans Want10
17
Market Implications10
  • Despite the hype, only 1 of the American market
    sought a hybrid vehicle in 2005. The hybrids are
    not expected to have a double digit market share
    unless fossil fuel runs out.
  • SUVs are still a quarter of the U.S. market. The
    new trend in SUVs is modest size. SUVs are
    being downsized to deliver more fuel efficiency
    while still offering space and comfort. Examples
    are the H3 Hummer and the Honda Pilot.

18
Opinions On Reliability11
  • In general, Americans perceive American-made
    automobiles as having lower quality and less
    reliability.
  • In 2004, American cars outperformed European cars
    in a Consumer Reports reliability study--
    American brands 18 problems per 100, European
    brands 20 problems per 100.
  • BUT Japanese and Korean cars were reported to
    have only 12 problems per 100.

19
Most Reliable AutomobilesConsumer Reports'
Predictions for Most Reliable 2006 Models12
  • Small cars
  • Honda Civic
  • Toyota Prius
  • Honda Civic Hybrid
  • Toyota Corolla
  • Subaru Impreza
  • Sporty cars
  • Honda S2000
  • Mazda MX-5
  • Lexus SC 430
  • Chevrolet Monte Carlo
  • Sedans
  • Lexus GS 300
  • Infiniti M35/M45
  • Lexus IS 300
  • Honda Accord Hybrid
  • Toyota Camry
  • Honda Accord (four-cylinder)
  • Lexus LS 430
  • Wagons
  • Toyota Matrix
  • Small SUVs
  • Toyota RAV4
  • Honda CR-V
  • Honda Element
  • Subaru Forester
  • Mercury Mariner
  • Mitsubishi Outlander
  • Midsize SUVs
  • Lexus RX 400h
  • Toyota Highlander
  • Toyota 4Runner
  • Infinity FX35
  • Large SUVs
  • Toyota Land Cruiser
  • Pickups
  • Honda Ridgeline
  • Toyota Tundra

italics denote GM brand
20
Safety13
  • Safety is becoming more important to car-buyers.
    This trend began to see a large uptick with the
    Ford Explorer and Firestone tire problems.
  • Experts name the following as being associated
    with a safe brand Volvo, BMW, Lincoln, Saab,
    Honda, and Subaru.
  • But, safety is becoming a top priority for all
    manufacturers.

italics denote GM brand
21
Safety Examples of 2006 SUV 5-Star Crash Test
Ratings As Determined by NHTSA14
italics denotes GM brand
22
Safety vs. Design15
  • So, what is more important to consumers design
    or safety?
  • According to a Consumer Reports survey, the top
    ten features desired in a new vehicle are
    generally related to comfort, convenience, and
    entertainment. This is significant for GM
    because foreign-made vehicles are typically
    perceived as more stylish and comfortable than
    American-made vehicles.

23
Features Design vs. Safety15
24
The Profile of Daily Commuting in America16
  • Personal Vehicle
  • 91
  • Public Transit 5
  • Walking
  • 3

25
A Look at Transit Trends 17,18,19
  • About 1 in 5 families have 3 or more cars,
    despite flat income trends.
  • The average driver spends about 62 hours a year
    stuck in traffic.
  • More workers are opting out of carpools and mass
    transit, but the number of people working from
    home is increasing.
  • Water buses/taxis and ferries are a new trend in
    public transit in places like Seattle, Boston,
    and Fort Lauderdale, but more tourists than
    locals use them.

26
Implications
  • There are very few places in the United States
    that contain comprehensive, seamless mass transit
    systems. In most cases, commuters must have
    access to a vehicle to get to the public transit.
  • Most cities in the United States are designed in
    a sprawling manner. Though exercise trends are
    up, these areas are impractical to navigate on
    foot or by bicycle.
  • Thus, until these factors change, the need for
    vehicles will remain.

27
Economic Environment
28
The Current State of the Economy27
  • The Federal Open Market Committee decided on
    November 1st to raise its target for the federal
    funds rate by 25 basis points to four percent.
  • Elevated energy prices and hurricane-related
    disruptions in economic activity have temporarily
    depressed output and employment.
  • Monetary policy accommodation (i.e. Federal
    Reserve actions), coupled with robust underlying
    growth in productivity, is providing ongoing
    support to economic activity that will likely be
    augmented by planned rebuilding in the
    hurricane-affected areas.
  • The cumulative rise in energy and other costs
    have the potential to add to inflation pressures
    however, core inflation has been relatively low
    in recent months and longer-term inflation
    expectations remain contained.

29
What is the Federal Funds rate now?27
30
Federal Funds Rate History27
31
Economic Overview of the Auto Industry28
  • Higher interest rates ahead
  • Flat demand
  • The Big Threes (GM, Ford, DaimlerChrysler)
    shares of the US market fell to record low of
    60.1 last year
  • 2005 US car and light truck sales should total
    16.6 million vehicles compared to 16.7 vehicles
    in 2004

32
Economic Overview (contd)28
  • Profits are down due to incentive wars.
  • Higher steel prices have added about 500 to the
    cost of an automobile.
  • Financing divisions are profitable.

33
Global Economy29
  • Auto sales continue to rise on a global level.
  • Auto purchases in China should exceed five
    million by the end of the decade.
  • China will emerge as the worlds second largest
    auto market.

34
Global Light-Vehicle Production ForecastNorth
America vs. China29(millions of units)
35
Interest rates
  • Interest rates have been rising for the past two
    years
  • History has shown that when interest rates rise
    the demand for borrowing will decrease
  • The automobile Industry relies heavily on sales
    through financing since most people can not
    afford to pay cash for an automobile

36
Trends in Inflation23
Transportation costs increased 5.1 from August
to September, while the price of all consumer
goods only increased 1.2. Transportation
inflation has risen sharply since June.
Transportation costs include new and used
vehicles, gasoline, parts and equipment,
maintenance and repair, and public as well as
private transportation.
37
Inflation30
  • The Federal Reserve Bank is always concerned with
    inflation of the nations currency.
  • Inflation Targeting is a policy of announcing
    what you're going to do, and then doing it.
  • If the incoming Fed chairman, Ben S. Bernanke,
    has his way, monetary policy will depend much
    less on the force of will, keen economic
    insights, and other exceptional qualities of the
    Fed's chief.
  • Instead, Bernanke will move the Fed toward clear
    and coherent rules for hitting publicly announced
    inflation targets -- an operating style that he
    calls "constrained discretion."

38
How does Inflation Targeting work?30
  • The central bank chooses and publicizes a target
    goal for the inflation rate -- say, 2 a year.
  • The bank then publicly estimates how high it
    expects inflation to be in the coming year. It
    steers monetary policy to try to hit the target
    inflation rate.
  • If inflation is getting above the target, the
    bank would ordinarily raise interest rates to
    cool the economy and bring inflation back down.
  • If inflation gets too low, the bank would lower
    rates to juice up growth, raising inflation.

39
The Effect So Far.30
  • For now, the choice of Bernanke to lead the Fed
    has not altered the outlooks for either the
    economy or Fed policy.
  • The financial markets still expect the Fed's
    target federal funds rate to reach at least 4.25
    by spring.
  • Based on the expectations implied in the market
    for interest-rate futures, investors continue to
    believe the funds rate has a high probability of
    reaching 4.5 by April.

40
Inflation Targeting and Auto Sales31
  • Inflation fears have eased.
  • A slow down in consumer spending and sluggish
    growth contributed to lower sales in the 2nd
    quarter of 2004.
  • Consumers spent 5.5 times their normal share of
    gasoline spending in the 2nd quarter.
  • The scrappage rate of old vehicles has slowed.

41
High Fuel Prices Contribute to Industry Shifts32
  • High fuel prices cause industry shifts to smaller
    cars.
  • There is a low cost of entry into the compact car
    segment.
  • Small car sales are up 9.5 for the first nine
    months of 2005 compared to 2004.

42
Gas Prices 35,40
43
Gas Prices and Production
  • The United States is heavily dependent on oil,
    and much of the worlds supply of crude oil is
    located in the Middle East.
  • The United States has created a national reserve
    of gasoline, but in times of natural disaster,
    such as the gas shortages after Hurricane
    Katrina, the U.S. becomes heavily dependent on
    other nations ability to produce and refine oil.
  • As a consequence, prices are often tied to the
    policies of OPEC nations.

44
Crude Oil Production36
45
GM and Industry Shifts32
  • GM will rely on its subsidiary, Daewood, to
    design and produce subcompacts.
  • Daewood has the advantage of minimal prduct
    development costs and available plant capacity.
  • GM sold 55,225 Chevrolet Aveos through September
    2005. Up 44 over last year.

46
October Sales33
  • New car sales dropped 33 the first nine days of
    October.
  • GM sales were down 57.
  • Automakers such as Ford and GM are reluctant to
    launch sales incentives.
  • Industry officials feel that Hurricane Katrina is
    to blame for high fuel prices and slow sales.

47
Technology
48
Technology From Real to Surreal20
49
Current Technology and Who Has It21
  • Blind-Spot Detection an alarm or warning light
    deploys when a vehicle is in your blind-spot
    (2005 Volvo S60 and V70).
  • Lane Departure Warning a camera tracks road
    markings and sets off an alarm if the car drifts
    (several 2005 Infinities 2005 Mercury concept
    car).
  • Stability Control sensors monitor brake
    pressure, tire and steering-wheel rotation, and
    other operations to determine if control is being
    lost. If so, the system automatically applies
    brake pressure (Toyota 4Runner, Ford Explorer,
    Jaguars, and all GM models by 2006).
  • Airbags a system adjusts the size and pressure
    of the bag, based on severity of the crash, the
    seats location, and whether the passenger is
    wearing a seatbelt (2006 Buick Lucerne, Cadillac
    DTS).
  • High-Tech Headlights
  • Lights swivel around corners at speeds exceeding
    10 km/h (2005 Audi A6).
  • Lights brighten or dim based on levels of
    oncoming traffic (2005 Cadillac STS).
  • Night View technology illuminates everything up
    to 150 m ahead of you and projects the image onto
    the windshield (2005 Lexus LX 470).

50
Internet vs. Dealerships9
  • The dealerships are having to deal with their
    customers like the never have before due to the
    internet giving customers what they never had
    before--INFORMATION
  • 2/3s (and growing) of Consumers in the market
    for an automobile will use the internet for
    research.
  • Now the dealers can not build value by simply
    telling customers the features of the car. By the
    time the customer has arrived at the dealership,
    they have already compared prices, incentives,
    features, and options.
  • The customer is more prepared to shop around and
    it is very easy to do now because of the internet

51
Wouk and the Hybrid41
  • Victor Wouk developed the first Hybrid car for GM
    in a 1972 Buick Skylark model.
  • The hybrid has since become a sought-after
    technology among car manufacturers due to rising
    fuel prices and increased consumer environmental
    awareness.
  • The hybrid technology consists of a gasoline fuel
    source and an electric fuel source. There are
    several modifications on the market today.

52
Fuel Cell Technology37
  • A fuel cell is an electrochemical device that
    produces electricity by separating fuel
    (generally hydrogen gas) with a catalyst.
  • Protons flow through a membrane and combine with
    oxygen to form water electrons flow to create
    electricity.
  • A fuel cell is composed of a piece of plastic
    between a few pieces of carbon plates that are
    sandwiched between two end plates acting as
    electrodes. These plates have channels that
    distribute the fuel and oxygen.
  • Since it converts the fuel, hydrogen, and oxygen
    directly to electrical energy, the only
    by-products are heat and water. Without
    combustion, fuel cells are virtually pollution
    free.

53
Fuel Cell Development34
  • California, Florida and New York will spend
    millions in the next five years to test electric
    automobiles powered by hydrogen fuel cells and to
    build a network of hydrogen fueling stations.
  • The goals are to
  • reduce air pollution.
  • counter soaring gas prices.
  • become leaders in the effort to build affordable
    hydorgen-powered cars.

54
Hands-Free Technology 6,7,8
  • 15 States have Bills Pending to Ban the use of
    Hand Held Devices in automobiles while driving
  • Companies are developing Voice automated systems
    that use a Voice-Activated Interface to use
    wireless Multi-Media and Communication Devices
  • These Devices will revolutionize the Car Driving
    Experience

55
Hands-Free Technology 7,8
  • These devices will allow Drivers to
  • Access and Manage personal Information
  • Access the Internet
  • Get Traffic and Directional information
  • Use their Cell Phone
  • Access news and Weather information
  • Download Streams of Audio and Video Content

56
Regulatory Environment
57
Hands-Free Legislation Will It Affect What
Consumers Want?6
58
Federal Regulation The Clean Air Act42
  • The Clean Air Act regulates air emissions from
    area, stationary, and mobile sources. This law
    authorizies the U.S. Environmental Protection
    Agency to establish National Ambient Air Quality
    Standards (NAAQS) to protect public health and
    the environment.
  • The goal of the Act was to set and achieve NAAQS
    in every state by 1975. The Act was amended in
    1977 primarily to set new goals (dates) for
    achieving attainment of NAAQS since many areas of
    the country had failed to meet the deadlines.
  • The 1990 amendments to the Clean Air Act in large
    part were intended to meet unaddressed or
    insufficiently addressed problems such as acid
    rain, ground-level ozone, stratospheric ozone
    depletion, and air toxics.

59
UAW A Significant Influence on Regulation43
  • The International Union of the United Auto
    Workers (UAW) has approximately 620,000 active
    members and over 500,000 retired members in the
    United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.
  • In Washington and state capitols, the UAW is
    fighting for better schools for kids, secure
    health care and pensions for retirees, clean air
    and water, tougher workplace health and safety
    standards, stronger worker's compensation and
    unemployment insurance laws and fairer taxes.

60
UAWs Power Over Benefits44
UAWs GM Negotions
UAWs Ford Negotions
61
Natural Environment
62
The Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming22
The greenhouse effect is responsible for the
earths current climate and weather. It keeps
the planet at a habitable level. However, when
concentrations of greenhouse gases increase,
problems occur that lead to global warming. The
biggest implication is the resultant increasing
of overall global temperature. In turn, this
leads to the melting of polar ice caps, rising
sea levels, increased evaporation, decreased soil
viability, increased quantities of rainfall, and
increased intensity of storms. Each of these
factors can affect all species and their ways of
life.
63
Temperature Over Time22
If global warming continues at the current rate,
the average global surface temperature could rise
1-4.5 degrees F in the next fifty years, and
2.2-10 degrees F in the next century, with
significant regional variation.
64
Use of Fossil Fuel Exploiting Nature?22
  • The burning of fossil fuels by automobiles and
    other sources have caused increasing methane and
    nitrous oxide concentrations. The carbon dioxide
    level alone has increased about 30 since the
    industrial revolution.
  • If emissions control policies are not tightened,
    by the year 2100 carbon dioxide concentrations
    are projected to be 30-150 higher than todays
    levels. The impacts of this increase could be
    disastrous in terms of global warming and its
    consequences.

65
Methane39
  • Methane losses occur during the production,
    processing, storage, transmission, and
    distribution of natural gas.
  • Because gas is often found together with oil, the
    production, refinement, transportation, and
    storage of crude oil is also a source of methane
    emissions.
  • It is estimated that 60 of global methane
    emissions are related to human-related activities

66
Mass Transit and Helping the Environment38
  • A study conducted by the American Public Transit
    Association found that in 2001 alone, public
    transportation use in the Atlanta area saved 19.3
    million gallons of gasoline and kept more than
    300 million pounds of pollutants out of the air.
  • The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
    (MARTA) is Atlanta's state-of-the-art public
    transportation system.
  • MARTA costs 1.75 for a one-way fare.

67
GM SWOT Analysis
68
Strengths24
  • GM has many divisions under its umbrella, most of
    which are associated with strong brand
    recognition.
  • GM has led global industry sales since 1931.
  • Manufacturing operations are carried out in 32
    countries, and GM vehicles are sold in 200
    countries.
  • For four consecutive years, GM has set industry
    sales records in the U.S.
  • GM is the majority shareholder in GM Daewoo of
    South Korea.
  • GM has developed several partnerships around the
    world
  • Technology collaborations with DaimlerChrysler,
    BMW, and Toyota
  • Vehicle manufacturing ventures with Toyota,
    Suzuki, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp,
    AVTOVAZ, and Renault

69
Weaknesses25
  • Accounting practices are proving to be an
    internal problem for GM.
  • GM is trailing behind competitors in innovation,
    especially relating to fuel-efficient vehicles
    and cosmetic appeal.
  • GM has a significant challenge in terms of paying
    for pensions and employee health care costs.
  • In comparison to competitors GM has a weak ROA,
    ROE, OM, and stock return.
  • Union regulations keep GM from making personnel
    changes that could better the position of the
    company.

70
Opportunities
  • The rising price of fuel can create an
    opportunity to produce and sell more
    fuel-efficient cars.
  • New global markets are emerging (i.e. China,
    India) and will be important to the future of
    all car manufacturers.
  • Safety is becoming increasingly important to the
    consumer investing in augmentation of the safety
    profile of their vehicles can be an opportunity
    for GM.
  • Many consumers are still looking for products
    that are Made in the USA.

71
Threats26
  • Prices of gas may cause some consumers to switch
    to mass transit and/or buy fewer SUVs.
  • The expense of the American work-force (i.e.
    pensions, healthcare, higher wages) will
    necessitate higher cost of goods sold.
  • The Federal Reserve has increased rates twelve
    consecutive times since June 2004, and economists
    are predicting at least three more increases.
    This will negatively impact borrowing and buying
    trends for vehicles.
  • Inflation for transportation has risen sharply
    since June, and will be a threat to car
    manufacturers, as consumers will bear the brunt
    of price increases.
  • Japanese and Korean car-makers are leaders in
    creating cars with fewer mechanical problems
  • Japanese and European car-makers are leaders in
    designing upscale luxury cars.

72
References
  • 1. US Census and World Population Data., 2000.,
    www.census.gov
  • 2. Top Ten Countries by Population
  • http//www.prb.org/pdf04/04WorldDataSheet
    Eng.pdf
  • 3. Race and Hispanic Data, March 13, 2001, AP
    release., http//cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/2001/fyi/n
    ews/03/13/hispanic.census/
  • 4. Akers, Karen., More Boom For Your Buck.,
    Winter 2001., http//www.logomall.com/imprintPM/is
    sues/winter-2001/Features4.htm
  • 5. Generation Y., Nueborne, Ellen., February
    1999., http//www.businessweek.com/1999/99_07/b361
    6001.htm

73
References
  • 6. Hands-free legislation., Map 2004.,
    http//www.headsetzone.com/nylegislation.html
  • 7. Hands free, Phone-Or Press Release., Feb. 28,
    2000.,
  • http//www.phone-or.com/nwPrRel2.asp?RelID5
  • 8. Hands free technology., Newsfactor Los
    Angeles Newsroom., October 12, 2000., http//www.w
    irelessnewsfactor.com/story.xhtml?story_id5255
  • 9. Internet vs. Dealerships., Lohr, Steve., Just
    Googling It Has Companies A Bit Unsettled .,
    November 05, 2005., http//articles.news.aol.com/b
    usiness/article.adp?id20051105145309990002_mpcb
    usiness.10.1cid403

74
References
75
References
76
References
77
References
  • 27. http//money.cnn.com/2005/11/01/news/economy/
    fed_statement/index.htm?section
  • money_latest
  • 28. Kerwin, Kathleen and Welch, David. Borrowing
    from the Future. Business Week, January 10, 2005.
    Issue 3915
  • 29. Miel, Rhoda. Experts expect automotive sales
    to rise. Plastics News, January 12, 2004. Issue
    45, Volume 15.
  • 30. CMO Private Placement Letter. Auto sales
    emerge as economys soft patch. September 27,
    2004. Volume 22, Issue 37.
  • 31. Peter, Coy. What's the Fuss Over Inflation
    Targeting? Business Week. November, 7, 2005,
    Issue 3958
  • Johnson, Richard. Industry shifts to smaller
    cars. Automotive News. October 24, 2005. Volume
    80, Issue 6173.
  • LaReau, Jamie. Ford, GM sales screech to a halt.
    Automotive News. October 17, 2005. Volume 80,
    Issue 6172.
  • Kenworthy, Tom. States get into the drivers seat
    of fuel-cell development. USA Today. April 14,
    2005

78
References
  • 35. American Gas Cost http//upload.wikimedia
    .org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/0d/Gas_Prices_Medium_Ter
    m.png/300px-Gas_Prices_Medium_Term.png
  • 36. Figure 1.1 Energy Overview
    http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_4.p
    df
  • 37. Fuel Cell Technology Showcase
    http//www.sae.org/fuelcells/fuelcells.htm
  • 38. MARTA http//www.itsmarta.com
  • 39. Methane http//www.epa.gov/methane/sources.ht
    ml
  • 40. Mobile Gas Price http//news.nationalgeograph
    ic.com/news/2005/08/images/050830_gas_prices.jpg

79
References
  • Goodstein, J. Godfather of the Hybrid.
    Engineering and Science. 2004.
  • Clean Air Act. Environmental Protection
    Agency. 18 Oct. 2005 http//www.epa.gov/region5/d
    efs/html/caa.htm.
  • Who We Are. UAW. http//www.uaw.org/about/uawme
    mbership.html.
  • Auto Contracts. UAW. http//www.uaw.org/contrac
    ts/index.cfm.
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