Luckys Considers

1
Luckys Considers

• Communication technology
• The World Wide Web
• The Voice Telephony
• Through
• Moores Law How technology evolves
• Metcalfes Law Network externalities

2
Case of WWW

• Technology
• Microprocessor, Transistor, PCs
• Perhaps no invention was really even
  required(89)
• HTML
• Marketing
• Development of Mosaic
• Enable user to provide contents for the web
• Free to everyone.

3
Voice Communication

• How It Changed from Analog to Digital
• The purpose of digitization was to reduce noise
  at transmission.
• By 1970s, most of intercity transmission was
  digital (95).
• Invention of fiber optics accelerated the
  digitalization and ATT wrote off entire plant to
  optical fiber network (95).

4
Voice over Packet

• The network being digitized, still the telephone
  calls are made in PSTN (Public Switched Telephone
  Network)
• now is there a possibility that voice will be now
  carried in packets on a data-network?

5
Case Study

• Would Voice over Pakcet work?
• If yes, when?
• What are the conditions?

6
Would Voice Over Packet Work?

• Luckys Point to consider
• Moores Law (technology develops)
• Metcalfes Law (hard to take off)
• Stakes and Stakeholders
• What are benefits, what are costs?
• Who benefits, who bear costs?

7
Learning From History

• How did digitization of phone network work?
• Benefits and cost and stakeholders
• What is the difference and similarities?
• Did it really work? In view of Optical
  Communication Bankruptcies

8
Syllabus Discussion

• Which aspects of technology likely are firm
  foundations for the future beyond the dot.com
  bubble and the telecom bankruptcies?
• Which likely are quicksands? -

9
Firm Foundation

• Lucky says
• Technology isnt the problem, or we have al
  the technology we need. What is lacking is the
  ability to project the market acceptance of
  technologies and any semblance of insight into
  the future applications of these technologies
  (86).

10
What is Ready?

• What communication technologies are around and
  waiting to become the Future of the information
  age?
• What are the firm foundations for that?
• Ex. 3G, Wireless LAN, Broadband TV etc.