DoD Disclaimer

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DoD Disclaimer
Terrorism History, Strategy and Root Causes
The views expressed herein are those of the
author and do not purport to reflect the position
of the United States Military Academy, the
Department of the Army, or the Department of
Defense.
DIILS 4 December 2006
James JF Forest, Ph.D. Director of Terrorism
Studies
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• Key Terms
• Vision Shape the future
• Power to achieve the vision
• Belief in a higher cause
• Strategy to compel, coerce, etc.
• Tactic bombing, assassination, etc.
• Duty to the cause, to family, to God
• Shame upon you for not doing seeking justice
• Freedom fighter must kill to secure freedom (?)
• Self-sacrifice to be killed in the service of a
  higher cause is heroic

AB95-5.PPT //
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More history of terrorism

• First VBIED (or Car Bomb) terrorist attack?
• New York City, September 1920
• Terrorist Italian anarchist Mario Buda
• Vehicle Horse-drawn wagon
• Target Corner of Wall and Broad streets
  (directly across from JP Morgan Company)
• Attack The wagonpacked with dynamite and iron
  slugsexploded at precisely noon in a fireball of
  shrapnel, killing 40 and wounding more than 200.

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More history of terrorism

• Second VBIED (or Car Bomb) terrorist attack?
• Haifa, Palestine (now Israel) January, 1947
• Terrorists Stern Gang (a pro-fascist splinter
  group led by Avraham Stern that broke away from
  the right-wing Zionist paramilitary Irgun)
• Vehicle Truck
• Target British police station in Haifa
• Attack A truckload of explosives was driven into
  the station, killing 4 and injuring 140.
• (The Stern Gang would soon use truck and car
  bombs to kill Palestinians as well, as part of
  their extremist agenda)

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A Brief History of Modern Terrorism

• Roughly 130-year history
• 4 Waves, each roughly 40-45 years
• Anarchist Wave
• Anti-Colonial/Decolonization Wave
• New Left Wave/Leftist anti-Western sentiment
• Religious Inspiration Wave
• Issue to consider for each wave
• Doctrines of terror
• Technology (especially for communication/propogand
  a)
• Avenues of funding and support

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Certain aspects are fundamental

• Desire for change
• Terrorism is typically non-state in character
• (Note the separate but related topic of state
  terrorism typically antithetical to the desire
  for political change.)
• States can terrorize, but they are not
  terrorists.
• Terrorists do not abide by norms
• They target innocents
• They seek psychological trauma
• Pursuit of a strategy

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Understanding the Strategy

• NATO definition of terrorism
• The unlawful use or threatened use of force or
  violence against individuals or property in an
  attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or
  societies to achieve political, religious or
  ideological objectives
• Sun Tzu
• Know yourself
• Know your allies
• Know your enemy

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Sun Tzu Know Your Enemy

• What motivates terrorists?
• How does someone become a suicide bomber?
• What do these people want?
• What are they capable of?
• How do they view this struggle?
• Ideologies fuel both local and global perceptions
  of injustices and need for action/retribution
• Overall goal create a better world

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Facilitating Ideologies of Violence

• Nationalist (e.g., Anti-colonial groups)
• Ethno-separatist (Chechens, Kurds, Tamils)
• Left-wing (e.g., radical Communists
  revolutionaries)
• Right Wing (often target race and ethnicity)
• Anarchist
• Religious (e.g., militias, jihadists, etc.-
  attack on Islam)
• Others (e.g., apocalyptic, charismatic cults,
  philosophies of Man is evil - Hobbes, et al.)
• Overall These all reflect the importance of
  perceptions, emotions, strategic influence,
  information warfare The Vision Thing

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Left-wing Terrorists

• Driven by liberal or idealist political concepts
• Prefer revolutionary anti-authoritarian
  anti-materialist agendas
• Typically target elites that symbolize authority
• Examples
• Anarchists, Earth First, Animal Liberation Front

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Right-wing Terrorists

• Often target race and ethnicity
• Examples
• Aryan Brotherhood, the Order, White Aryan Nation
• The Aryan Republican Army (US)
• Neo-nazi Skinheads
• American Nazi Party (US)
• Aryan Nations USA
• The Boeremag (South Africa)
• Christian identity US
• Creativity movement US
• Combat 18 England
• Ku Klux Klan (US)
• National Alliance USA
• National Association for the Advancement of White
  People (NAAWP) USA
• Silent Brotherhood
• White Aryan Resistance (WAR) USA
• World Church of the Creator

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Ethno-nationalist/Separatists

• Usually have clear territorial objectives
• Liberation/separation
• Popular support usually along ethnic/racial
  lines.
• Examples
• Tamil Tigers, Chechens, ETA, IRA, PKK

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Religious terrorists

• Belief in a struggle of good vs evil
• Acting along desires of a diety target is thus
  not necessarily human
• Feel unconstrained by law higher calling
• Complete alienation from existing socio/political
  order
• Support may be diffuse
• Examples
• al Qaeda, Hizballah, Hamas, Jemaah Islamiyah,
  Christian Militia, Aum Shinrikyo, Al Aqsa Martyrs
  Brigade, Amal, Lehi, Irgun

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State Terrorism

• Governments can engage in acts of terrorism
• Examples
• French Revolution
• Use of revolutionary tribunals to prop up the
  French republic.
• Rule by fear/terror Robespierres lists
• Iraq
• Saddam Hussein deployed chemical weapons in
  Kurdish villages, killing thousands
• Intent was to frighten other villages into
  stopping their political revolt
• It worked

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State-Sponsored Terrorism

• Governments can also support terrorist groups
  that do their bidding
• Examples
• Iran, which supports Hizballah
• Before 9/11, Hizballah had killed more Americans
  than any other terror group
• Embassy bombings, kidnappings, targeted
  assassinations, suicide attack on Marine barracks
  at Beirut airport

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Some Strategic Objectives of Terrorism

• Recognition Gaining national or international
  recognition for their cause recruiting new
  personnel raising funds demonstrating their
  strength
• Coercion Force a desired behavior of an
  individual or government
• Intimidation Prevent individuals, groups, or
  governments from acting
• Provocation Provoking overreaction by a
  government to the attack on symbolic targets or
  personnel, thereby gaining sympathy for their
  cause.
• Insurgency support Forcing the government to
  overextend itself in dealing with the threat,
  thereby allowing the insurgency to gain support
  and commit further attacks against the government.

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Strategy and Training

• Establish training camps developing the will to
  kill and the skill to kill
• Operational space Geographic isolation
• Teachers Experts in relevant knowledge, e.g.,
  military combat experience
• Committed learners
• Time, money, and basic necessities

• Afghanistan
• Algeria
• Bosnia
• Chechnya
• Colombia
• Egypt
• Indonesia
• Japan
• Kashmir
• Lebanon
• Libya

• Northern Ireland
• Peru
• The Philippines
• Somalia
• Spain
• Sri Lanka
• Sudan
• Syria
• Turkey
• United States
• Uzbekistan

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Strategy and Training

• Psychological dimensions
• Moral disengagement
• Displacement of responsibility
• Disregard for/distortion of consequences
• Dehumanization
• Moral justification
• Group power over behavior, personal decisions
• Preparation for martyrdom

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Terrorism Works

• In 6 of the 11 campaigns that ended terrorists
  achieved at least partial political gains (Pape,
  2005)
• Target states
• Fully or partially withdrew from territory
• Began negotiations
• Released a terrorist leader
• Represents 55 success rate
• Other punishment strategies such as airpower or
  economic sanctions work no more 15 of the time
• Suicide campaigns have been successful against a
  variety of democratic governments -- even hawkish
  ones
• Reagan Administration
• Netanyahu

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Terrorism Works

• The successes of terrorism become part of a
  groups ideology, which feeds recruitment and
  internal motivation
• For al Qaida, the terrorism strategy has produced
  some results which benefit their ideological
  cause
• Understanding the strategy and ideology of al
  Qaida (and other groups) is vital to our
  understanding of terrorist motivation

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Radicalization 3 Categories of Academic Theory

• What influences individuals decision to join a
  terrorist group?
• What organizational dynamics influence group
  motivations?
• What local circumstances allow terrorist groups
  to thrive and grow?

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Individual and Group Motivations

• Some Individuals who join a terrorist group
  willingly give up power over their behavior,
  personal decisions
• Some draw prestige from group membership being
  part of something greater than oneself
• Many groups exploit need for members ego
  validation
• Group membership in many cases offers individuals
  a sense of power over their destiny which they
  lack elsewhere
• A powerful motivating message You can make a
  difference in this world, not only for yourselves
  but for your children and grandchildren

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Underlying Conditions Local

• Could include political, economic and social
  conditions, before terrorism
• Unemployment
• Socio-demographic pressures
• Authoritarian/repressive regimes
• Ethnic fissures (Tamils, Chechens)
• Chaos capacity
• Weak/failing states
• These conditions exist in numerous places without
  history of terrorism
• Think globally, act locally? (e.g., London,
  Madrid)

Expectations
Opportunities
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Underlying Conditions Global

• Could include global animosities
• e.g., Sunni vs. Shia
• Could foreign policies
• U.S. relations with Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
  Iran
• Democracy mandate?
• Perceptions (bias/hypocrisy)
• State-sponsored terror
• Energy dependence facilitates funding streams for
  violent groups as well as vulnerabilities for
  industrialized nations

Demands/Grievances
Power to enact change
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Other Global Conditions Facilitators

• Global weapons proliferation (especially in
  weak/failing states)
• Technology
• Communication and transportation shrinks time and
  space enable networked forms of terrorism
  (including fundraising aspects)
• Weapons invention of dynamite helped launch
  capabilities
• Global criminal networks
• Profit motive
• Money laundering
• Trafficking in drugs, humans, explosives, other
  bad stuff
• Ideologies fuel both local and global perceptions
  of injustices and need for action/retribution

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Basic trends in modern terrorism

• More violent attacks (and increasing lethality)
• Increasing use of suicide bombers (the ultimate
  smart bomb)
• Religious terrorist groups most common (even
  insurgencies and ethnic separatist groups use
  religion to justify violence)

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What to do?

• Economic and political dimensions
• Create economic political opportunities to meet
  aspirations
• Consider foreign policy dimensions (state
  sponsorship, bias)
• Chaos capacity
• Law enforcement, border security containment
• Weapons proliferation criminal networks
• Pressure states and private companies to prevent
• Energy dependence
• Alternatives to fossil fuels
• The battleground of ideologies is particularly
  important for attacking the motivation and morale
  of terrorists in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
  Russia, . . .
• Exploit ideological vulnerabilities

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Questions?

• You have to be lucky everyday We only have to
  be lucky once - IRA Bomber