Shifting Elderly Demographics and its implications for North Dakota

1
Shifting Elderly Demographicsand its
implications for North Dakota
Presentation to North Dakota Senior Service
Providers August 14, 2007

• Dr. Richard Rathge
• Professor and Director
• North Dakota State Data Center

2
Presentation Objective
1. To place the shifting senior demographics of
North Dakota into historical context.
2. To examine the future demographic challenges
for the states elderly
3. Briefly explore the economic impact of the
shifting elderly population on the state
3
Key Contextual Themes
1. Differing Patterns of Population Change
2. Graying of the state will not be gradual
3. Economic impacts are diverse
4
Key Contextual Themes
1. Differing Patterns of Population Change
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Population

• North Dakotas population peaked in 1930 at
  680,845.
• The July 1, 2006 population estimate for North
  Dakota totaled 635,867, an increase of 1,262
  persons from 2005.

Source U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and
the Population Estimates Branch,
http//www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
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North Dakota
Cass County
McIntosh County
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Population Density
8
Source North Dakota State Data Center
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Key Contextual Themes
2. Graying of the state will not be gradual
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data)
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
4
Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020
85 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-4
9 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-
4
Female
Male
Population (in millions)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, International Data
Base.
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Baby Boomers enter system 1.825 million/yr or
5,000 a day (on average)
Baby Boomers enter age 85
Source Older Americans 2004
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30 years
Source Older Americans 2004
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Life Expectancy at Age 65
Females
Males
Source Joseph Applebaum U.S. General Accounting
Office
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2000 Census Rural and Urban Population
Distributionsby Age and Gender for North Dakota
Traditional
Babyboom
X Generation
Y Generation
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2000Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
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Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the
Total Populationin North Dakota by County
2020Source North Dakota State Data Center,
North Dakota Population Projections 2005 to
2020, Sept. 2002
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The Elderly 65 plus
Persons Age 65 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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The Elderly 85 plus
Persons Age 85 and Older as a Percentage of Total
Persons by State 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau.
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U.S. Population Trends Individuals 85 or Older
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Number of Projected Centenarians
140,000
131,000
100,000
72,000
60,000
28,000
15,000
20,000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source U.S. Census Bureau, P251130.
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Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and
OlderNorth Dakota 1890 to 2020
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Population Distribution by Age of Earner in North
Dakota 1980-2020
Peaked in 1990
Peaked in 2000
Relatively stable until 2005
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PERCENT CHANGE IN PERSONS2000 to 2010 2000 to
2020(Source U.S. Census Bureau)
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Households by Type
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Household Types
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Year 2010 Baby boomers begin to enter
Source Older Americans 2004
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Householders Ages 65 and Older Living Alone as a
Percent All Householders Ages 65 and Older in
North Dakota by County 2000Source U.S. Census
Bureau, Census 2000
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Key Contextual Themes
3. Economic impacts are diverse
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Economic realities

• Seniors economic contribution INCOME
• Nearly 3 billion in income (18 of states
  total)
• Social Security 1.3 billion
• Private pensions - 1 billion
• Medicaid - 529 million
• Veterans pensions - 55 million

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Aggregate Household Income for Householders 65
and Older as a Percent of Total Aggregate
Household Income in North Dakota by County 2000
North Dakota 18.3
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, SF3
Table P57
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Economic realities

• Seniors economic contribution---WEALTH
• In 2001, the wealth of North Dakotas 261,570
  households was estimated at 92.4 billion
• Seniors 60 and over owned 51 of the wealth
• In next 15 years, it is estimated that 37.6
  billion will be transferred
• Over the next 50 years, an estimated 205.7
  billion will be transferred

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Source Havens and Schervish, 2006 Wealth
Transfer in North Dakota
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Elderly Employment

• 13 of all seniors 65 were employed (12,956)
• 41 of employed seniors worked less than
  20hr/week
• 36 of employed seniors worked at least 31
  hr/week

• Less than 1/5 of employed workers want
  additional work

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Aggregate Income by Type
7.2
Total Aggregate Income in North Dakota totaled
11.5 billion in 2000.
7.7
9.1
70.3
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, PUMS1
Data Set independent calculations prepared by
the NDSDC.
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Age by Income Distribution
Ages 15 to 64 (9.6 billion)
Ages 65 plus (1.9 billion)
North Dakota, 2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, PUMS1
Data Set independent calculations prepared by
the NDSDC.
37
Age-specific distributions of income earned by
type, 1980-2000
Source U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000, PUMS1
Data Set Census 1990, PUMS 5 and Census 1980,
PUMS 5 independent calculations prepared by
the NDSDC.
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Projected Change in Earners, by Income Type, by
Age Cohort, in North Dakota 2000 to 2020
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Projected Change in Total Aggregate Income, by
Income Type, by Age Cohort, in North Dakota 2000
to 2020
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Technological Advances
1. Communications
2. Smart Homes
3. Monitoring
4. Telemedicine
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(No Transcript)
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Telemedicine Advances
Constant monitoring devices
Interactive mobile medical referral
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Elderly Presentation 2007

• Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
• North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
  IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58105
• Richard.Rathge_at_ndsu.edu
• Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
• URL www.ndsu.edu/sdc