Accelerating Learning for Sustainability

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Accelerating Learning for
Sustainability
- Connecting the Dots -

• Exploring Deep Change Processes
• Learning from Around the World
• November 9-11, 2006
• IUCN Headquarters Gland Switzerland

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The Quest for Sustainability

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Sustainability?

• Clearing the Fog
• Sustainable
• Means capable of continuing indefinitely without
  depletion without depletion or diminished return
• Sustainable Growth
• A rise in per capita real income or GDP capable
  of continuing for a long time
• A condition of sustainable economic growth means
  economic stagnation will not set in
  (social/environmental stagnation?)
• Sustainability in Brundtland Report
• Meeting the needs of the present generation
  without compromising the ability of future
  generations to meet their own needs
• Sustainability in Organizations
• by creating organizations as living systems in
  alignment with nature so all life will flourish
  forever (variation on Ehrenfeld and Schley)

4
In Service of Life?

• One Persons Quest
• From entrepreneurship to social entrepreneurship
• Information Technology
• Life Sciences Education
  Synergies
• Sustainable Development
• Investments in Seeding a Sustainable Future
  Crucial
• Humanitys Global Footprint not Sustainable
• Systemic Investments required to meet Challenges
  Ahead

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Choosing Our Future

• Contemplate this.

Scenario Targets 1. Footprint ? 2. Time
Frame Year? 3. Investments f(Risk)
Source Lovink, Wackernagel et al (2004)
Eco-Insurance Risk Management for the 21st
Century
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Climate Change Economics

• Stern Review
• Scientific evidence overwhelming
• Climate change presents very serious global risks
  affecting all of humanity an urgent global
  response is required
• Cost of Not taking Action
• 520 of Global GDP each year ( 2.2 8.8
  trillion)
• Global GDP 2005 44 trillion
• Cost of Taking Action Now
• /- 1 of Global GDP each year ( 440 b/yr 8.8
  trillion thru 2025)
• ROI in cost reduction 5-20 times
• Policies for Effective Global Response
• Pricing carbon taxes, trading, regulation
• Support for innovation and low-carbon technology
  deployment
• Remove energy efficiency barriers
• Inform, Educate, Persuade Individuals About What
  They Can Do
• Report by Nicholas Stern released October 31,
  2006 at Royal Society of London

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In Service of Life?

• One Persons Quest
• From entrepreneurship to social entrepreneurship
• Information Technology
• Life Sciences Education
  Synergies
• Sustainable Development
• Investments in Seeding a Sustainable Future
  Crucial
• Humanitys Global Footprint not Sustainable
• Systemic Investments required to meet Challenges
  Ahead
• But, Awareness, Wisdom and Foresight come FIRST
• Time is of the Essence How do we Accelerate
  Learning?
• Connecting Emotionally Slowing Down to Speed Up?
• Mounting Instability Humanitys Window of
  Opportunity?
• How to Engage Individuals in the Creation of
  Positive Futures
• Realization wil be based on Shared Vision Intent

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About Planet2025

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Snap Shot

• Mission
• To promote new and additional sources of
  sustained financing for long term investment in
  the globe's life-supporting ecosystems through
  accelerated learning, awareness raising, and
  activities of our Planet2025 Lifestyle program
• Governance
• Founding board members, global advisors,
  launching partners composed of well-known
  sustainability leaders from around the world
• Actions
• Recent Activities
• Launch of Planet2025 News Network (PNN)
• Planet2025 Learning Initiative The Future is
  Now
• In Development
• Planet2025.tv Share Your Vision, Shape Our
  FutureTM
• EcoSmartCard/Fone, LifestyleShop Planet2025
  Fund

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Planet2025 Learning Initiative
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The Future is Now Are We Ready?

• A Unique Participatory Process
• Exploration of Innovative Learning Solutions
• Accelerated Learning for Globally Sustainable
  Lifestyle
• Formal, non-informal and informal learning
• State of the Art Collaboration Tools developed by
  Joel Barker
• Implications Wheel Strategic Matrix
• Planet2025 Scenario Brief provides Exploration
  Framework
• International Collaborations 06-07 ? Conference
  in 08
• Workshops organized around core sustainability
  themes
• Approach 100-150 experts work in teams on
  solutions
• Collective Wisdom Mapped, Shared Networked
• Emerging Learning Solutions featured at
  Conference
• Organized as process within context of UNDESD
• Patrons, planning committee, co-organizers
  partners

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Developments to Date

• Initial Strategic Explorations MarJun 06
• 60 participants from around the globe
• Online training followed by online strategic
  explorations sessions
• Sessions (2 hrs) in teams of 5 participants
  moderated by facilitator
• Objectives
• Introduction of I-Wheel tools to participants
• Anytime, anywhere collaboration potential?
• Ability to yield concrete and practical results?
• Facilitates multi stakeholder cooperation?
• Learning acceleration potential for people,
  organizations networks?
• Preliminary Findings
• Positive on all counts, but initial face to face
  interaction desirable to kick-off process and
  inspire participants instantaneously

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Next Steps..

• Recent and Anticipated Events
• Accelerating Learning for a Clean Energy
  Transition
• Oct 3,06 - World Innovation Forum, Eindhoven,
  The Netherlands
• Responsible Investment Benchmarking
  Implications for SRI
• March 07 Peace Palace, The Hague
• The Global Footprint of Cities Finding the
  Future Faster
• March 21-23 ICLEI, Sevilla, Spain
• Accelerated Learning for City Managers, Planners
  and Decision Makers
• March 29-31, 07 New Mobility Agenda, Monaco
• Sustainable Enterprise Initiative
• April/May, 07 Georgetown University,
  Washington DC
• Open Source Educational Resources Beyond the
  Current Model
• June 3-4, 07 Open University, the Netherlands
• under development subject to change

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in a Process

• Anticipated Events
• Accelerating Learning for Vision and Hope in the
  21st Century
• July 29-31, 07 World Future Society,
  Minneapolis
• Commercializing RD for Sustainability
• August (end), 07 World Innovation Forum,
  Malaysia
• Green Building Finance Capital Markets
• Fall 07 -- Market Transformation Institute, New
  York
• Global Citizen Movements
• Fall 07 UPeace/Earth Charter, Costa Rica
• Learning for Sustainable Futures Conference in
  2008
• Venue and date
• to be determined
• under development, subject to change

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Building Blocks for a Globally Sustainable
Lifestyle
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Keeping the Eye on the Ball

• Interdependence Connectedness

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Clear Objectives

• Shrinking Sharing Humanitys Global Footprint

BENDING THE CURVE Requires Awareness, Wisdom,
Foresight and Action
Source Lovink, Wackernagel et al (2004)
Eco-Insurance Risk Management for the 21st
Century
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Innovation Creativity

• Formal, Non-formal, Informal, and Life-long
  Learning for Life

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Life Insurance for the Globe

• Competency Wedges in Service of Life

CO2 Footprint 50 of Global
Ecological Footprint
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Humanitys Window of Opportunity

• The Upside of Chaos
• Social and ecological instability can provide a
  decision window
• i.e. a transitory period in the evolution of a
  complex system (living systems in particular)
  during which any input or influence, however
  small, can blow up to transform existing
  trends.
• When a society reaches the limits of its
  stability and turns chaotic, it becomes
  super-sensitive
• i.e. responsive to even small fluctuations such
  as changes in some peoples values, beliefs,
  world views and aspirations
• many signs point to the fact we are living in or
  entering a window of exceptional freedom to
  decide our destiny
• You Can Shape the Future and Change the World
• Ingredients for success
• Systems thinking, awareness, emotional
  connectedness to life, wisdom, foresight a
  positive shared vision for the future

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The Implications Wheel A Strategic Exploration
Tool by Joel Barker
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Finding the Future Faster
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I-Wheel In Brief

• What is the I-Wheel?
• A smart group process
• Explores possible long term implications of any
  change
• Decision-enhancing tool for leaders
• Early alert tool for uncovering challenges and
  opportunities
• What is Strategic Exploration?
• Explores future consequences of decisions and
  actions before committing to a particular course
  of actions
• SE insights enable decision making and planning
  based on added clarity, confidence, specificity
  and accountability
• Uncovers unintended consequences (positive
  negative)
• is most underdeveloped part of strategic
  thinking (Joel Barker)

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Visual Results
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Map Legend
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I-Wheel ARC

• A basic building block
• One spoke of the I-Wheel
• Easy to Learn
• Composed of
• 1 first order implication
• 5 second order implications
• 25 third order implications
• 25 years of experience have demonstrated that 5
  implications off each node is optimum maximum,
  but your can always add more

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I-Wheel Benefits

• How it can help your organization
• Collaboration tool uncovering implications of any
  change
• Draws on wisdom of (diverse) groups or teams
• Face to face and/or online synchronous or not
• Increases stakeholder involvement, commitment,
  and satisfaction
• Improved organizational communications
• Increased support for organizational change
  efforts
• Sampling of possible topics
• Emerging Trends
• Innovations your own or your competitors
• Policy changes external or internal
• New laws and regulations
• Strategic objectives and goals
• Significant events

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I-Wheel Benefits

• How it can help your organization (cont.)
• Efficient, Fast Cost Effective
• Speed, the I-Wheel process is fast and practical
• More effective and faster decision making and
  action planning
• Reduced costs of data collection
• Concrete Outputs
• Maps Connections, Collective Wisdom of Group
• Surveys larger landscape, longer time horizon
• Historical record of input into decisions
• Better understanding of possible future outcomes
• Reduces risks of negative unintended consequences
• Multiple queries and views of database
• Bridges, Barriers Time Frames
• Online viewer and PDF Reporting

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Getting Started
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Center Brief

• Step One
• An Issue, decision, goal or trend becomes the
  Center of a strategic exploration, e.g.
• What are the implications of..
• The IUCNs CEC initiates strategic explorations
  of deep change processes to engage its membership
  in a shared vision of the future
• A Consortium of Universities launches Open Source
  Educational Resources to Accelerate Learning for
  Sustainability
• Step Two
• Creation of Strategic Brief
• Containing details or assumptions to start-off
  participants on same page, allowing everyone to
  move forward considering the Center, and thereby
  disengaging undue argument
• Short bulleted list or 20-page document
  (Planet2025 Scenario Brief)

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Screen Shot
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First Order Implications

• Step Three
• Development of baseline set of First Order
  Implications
• First Order Implications are things (events) that
  are direct results of the center occurring
• They are used to create Second and Third Order
  Implications
• First order implications are developed in
  consultation with key organizational staff of
  strategic exploration
• Complemented by/mixed with First Order
  Implications submitted by all participants in
  strategic exploration
• Step Four
• Start of strategic explorations
• All participants engage

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Screen Shot
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It is like.

• Dropping a Stone in a Pond

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Creating Good Implications
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Rules of the Game

• Make it Work
• Always assume the previous implication happened
• Move from the center out
• Is it a direct result of the previous
  implications?
• Pay attention for out of order implications
• At least one positive and negative implication!
• Make it Fast
• Be specific and concrete
• Repetition and contradiction are OK
• Limit your discussions
• As soon as your team agrees an implication is
  possible, record it and immediately move on to
  the next one!

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Rules of the Game

• Make it fair
• 30 second pause (between implications?)
• Always use conditional language to present your
  implication
• Avoid criticism
• If it is possible (however unlikely), it is an
  implication
• Make it count
• Create and write so a stranger would understand
  what you mean
• Write clearly and legibly

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Scoring Implications
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Why?

• Scoring adds value and depth
• Scoring makes I-Wheel information more precise
• It forces participating teams to be denote
  significance of implications
• Scoring can be done by different groups to
  survey them
• Uncovers stakeholder conflicts of interest
• Scoring is qualitative not quantitative
• It represents the teams best sense of value, but
  the numbers are not hard
• Scoring focuses attention on what the team
  thought was most important

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Scoring Perspective

• Choosing a Point of View
• Clarity is key i.e. is group scoring from the
  perspective of
• Business, government, NGOs, educators, consumers,
  etc.?
• Focus
• Implications are scored for two things
• Desirability
• Likelihood
• Scales
• Desirability 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
  -4 -5
• Likelihood 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
• Always assume previous implication occurred
• What is likelihood of this one occurring?

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Screen Shot
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Scoring Rules

• Writing Scores
• Desirability first, likelihood second
• 5/9 -3/2 4/9 etc.
• Minority Reports
• For very special occasions
• 50 and -50
• If you think your team is missing it big, tender
  a minority report
• Keep your Cool
• Do not get fanatical
• Majority rules/minority reports
• Minority reports are important and recorded

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Final Tips

• Fast Track Scoring
• Much quicker and gets most of the information
• Score only 4s, 5s and 50s from both signs (
  and -)
• Score likelihood for each item and then score all
  the previous implications back to the center
• Scoring can start anywhere
• Start with any implication you wish, because it
  is always assumed that the previous implication
  occurred

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Bridges, Barriers Time Diamonds
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Purpose Use

• Bridges and Barriers
• Strategies, interventions and/or actions
• Increasing the likelihood or otherwise
  facilitating that (highly) desirable implications
  occur (BRIDGES)
• Blocking or otherwise preventing that (highly)
  undesirable implications occur (BARRIERS)
• Time Diamonds
• Indicate predicted time between each implication
• They facilitate strategy development, planning,
  decision making process

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Screen Shot

• Bridges, Barriers, Time Diamonds

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Completing the Picture
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Recapitulation

• Decide on strategic exploration topic
• An issue, decision, goal or trend becomes the
  Center of a strategic exploration
• Create/add details assumptions first order
  implications
• Assign I-Wheel ARCs to group
• Collaborate in Teams
• Each team completes one I-Wheel Arc
• Second and third order implications are created
  for each ARC
• ARCs are scored, returned to facilitator, and
  compiled
• Map Mine Collective Wisdom of the Group
• Opportunities and threats, in print, online,
  dbase queries
• Strategy development, bridges, barriers time
  frames

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Resources

• Planet2025 Learning Initiative
• Accelerating Learning for a Globally Sustainable
  Lifestyle Connecting the Dots
• a strategic exploration process facilitated in
  cooperation with Joel Barkers Institute for
  Strategic Exploration
• Visit our websites for FAQs
• www.planet2025.net/conferences
• www.implicationswheel.com
• Background Info, Calendar of Events, Online
  Viewers, Documentation, and Training
• Events, workshops, sponsoring, facilitation, and
  training
• Steven Lovink jslovink_at_planet2025.net
• Bill Palladino bp_at_i4se.com