Kaliningrad in EURussia relations: Scenario exercise - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Kaliningrad in EURussia relations: Scenario exercise PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: b5789-YWU1Z



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Kaliningrad in EURussia relations: Scenario exercise

Description:

Define key parameters to forecast the future of Russia-EU relations and of Kaliningrad ... global security alert, geopolitics, competition for resources ' ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:74
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 31
Provided by: rec8
Learn more at: http://www.recep.ru
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Kaliningrad in EURussia relations: Scenario exercise


1
Kaliningrad in EU-Russia relationsScenario
exercise
  • Sergei Medvedev
  • RECEP, Moscow

2
Research objectives
  • Define key global trends relevant for Russia-EU
    relations and on Kaliningrad
  • Define key parameters to forecast the future of
    Russia-EU relations and of Kaliningrad
  • Define four sets of scenarios for
  • Russia
  • The European Union
  • Russia-EU relations
  • Kaliningrad
  • Define the most desirable scenario for
    Kaliningrad (Pilot Region) and outline
    practical policy steps for its implementation
    (Road Map)

3
GLOBAL TRENDS Globalization and accommodation
KEY PARAMETER Role of the nation-state
European scenarios
Russian scenarios
R1 R2 R3
E1 E2 E3
RE1
K1
RE2
K2
RE3
K3
Pilot region
Road map
4
Globalization and accommodation
  • Re-Nationalization
  • Fragmentation
  • Regionalization, localization
  • Resistance/Identity
  • State as an anchor of identity
  • Anti-Americanism
  • Old Economy,
  • oil, resources, hierarchy
  • State intervention
  • Global terrorism
  • Regional instability
  • De-Nationalization
  • Integration
  • EU federalism
  • Homogeneity
  • Markets, liberalism
  • Americanization
  • New Economy
  • networks
  • Crisis of the welfare state
  • Liberal imperialism
  • New World Order

5
Key parameters
  • Role of the Nation-State
  • In the economy
  • Liberal/ globalized / private / de-regulated/,
    or
  • Statist / Public / Regulated / protectionist
  • In politics
  • Decentralized / networked / confederal, or
  • Centralized / integrated / unitary
  • Scales of evaluation
  • Economic axis
  • Statist / regulated lt---gt Liberal / Global
  • Political axis
  • Centralized/integrated lt---gt Decentralized/netwo
    rked

6
Generic chart
Centralized/ Integrated
Economic axis
Statist Regulated
Liberal Global
Political axis
Decentralized/ Networked
7
Russias options
Centralized/ Integrated
R1 Administrative Modernization
R3 Bureaucratic Capitalism
Statist Regulated
Liberal Global
R2 Liberal Modernization
Decentralized/ Networked
8
Russian scenarios
  • R1 Administrative modernization
  • Model South Korea
  • R2 Liberal modernization
  • Model Czech Republic
  • R3 Bureaucratic capitalism
  • Model Mexico, Indonesia

9
R1 Administrative modernization
  • Political centralization
  • Administrative vertical, managed democracy
  • Limits on federalism and local autonomy
  • East Asian models South Korea1960s-70s?
  • Liberal economic and social agenda
  • Corporatism / re-distribution of resource rent
  • Capital-intensive modernization projects
  • Dismantling the paternalist social system
  • Eventual WTO membership, OECD application?
  • Generally pro-Western foreign policy
  • Extended cooperation with the US (terrorism,
    Iraq?)
  • Friction with EU, CoE, OSCE
  • Liberal imperialism in the CIS

10
R2 Liberal modernization
  • Political pluralism
  • Resurgence of liberal parties/projects (support
    by the Kremlin?)
  • Modernization from below, civil society
    development
  • Extended federalism and regionalism
  • Cross-border cooperation
  • Full economic liberalization, de-monopolization
  • Fighting the Dutch disease and resource
    dependence
  • Development of the small and medium business
  • Central European model (Poland, Czech Republic)
  • Enhanced dialogue with the EU
  • Not just economic interests, but normative
    affinity and legal harmonization

11
R3 Bureaucratic Capitalism
  • Informal state capitalism
  • Corporations are private but de facto controlled
    by the state
  • High ownership concentration / monopolies
    (Gazprom)
  • Postponement of structural reform / stagnation
  • Dependence on natural resources/ oil exports
    Russia as petro-state (Petrocracy)
  • Authoritarian drift
  • Privileged role for the bureaucratic
    corporation/security elite
  • One-party rule (like in Japan, Mexico)
  • A unitary territorial structure (merger of
    regions)
  • Neo-imperialism in the CIS
  • Cold peace with the West

12
EU options
Centralized/ Integrated
E1 Global Actor
E3 Fortress Europe
Statist Regulated
Liberal Global
E2 Network Europe
Decentralized/ Networked
13
EU scenarios
  • E1 Global actor
  • E2 Network Europe
  • E3 Fortress Europe

14
E1 Global actor
  • Success of constitutional referenda and
    institutional reform
  • Deepening and widening of the EU (accession of
    Turkey, Ukraine, etc.)
  • Liberal economic policy opening up EU markets to
    globalization
  • Consolidated foreign and security policy
  • Enhanced Neighborhood Policy
  • Global role out of the area

15
E2 Network Europe
  • Failure of the Constitution and of institutional
    reform
  • Weakening of central institutions,
    re-nationalization and regionalization
  • Emergence of a core Europe of rich nations
  • Proliferation of bilateralism
  • Globalization and liberalization of national and
    subregional markets
  • Low-profile global role of the EU
  • Failure of CFSP and of consolidated neighborhood
    projects

16
E3 Fortress Europe
  • Powerful external variables /globalization gone
    bad
  • Global terrorism, WMD
  • Role of the US and/or Russia
  • climate change, catastrophic migration
  • Enlargement stops at 25 BG, ROM, CRO
  • Limited institutional reform, with impact on JHA
  • Securitization of polity, stricter
    immigration/border control
  • Economy protectionism and state intervention
  • Foreign policy Isolationism, no global
    commitment
  • Failure of subregionalism and of neighborhood
    projects

17
Russia-EU scenario matrix
18
Russia-EU scenarios
  • RE1 Cold Peace
  • RE2 Muddling through
  • RE3 Full partnership

19
RE1 Cold Peace
  • A combination of worst-case scenarios
  • deteriorating global conditions terrorism, WMD,
    migration
  • global security alert, geopolitics, competition
    for resources
  • Fortress Europe in the EU and/or bureaucratic
    capitalism in Russia
  • EU and Russia increasingly alienated
  • US-Russia cooperation possible, over the head of
    the EU
  • Russias unsuccessful attempts to divide the EU
  • Raising visa and border barriers
  • failure of cross-border regionalism
  • Trade disputes, delayed Russian entry into the WTO

20
RE2 Muddling through
  • Continuation of present trends, stagnation of
    EU-Russia relations
  • Loose institutions, hollow summits, bureaucratic
    squabbling between EU and Russia
  • Lack of cohesion, rival visions of Russia in the
    EU
  • Failure of CSR
  • Bilateralism with Russia (France, Germany, UK)
  • Of four common spaces, only some cooperation in
    the First (economy) and Fourth (humanitarian)
  • no large EU investment
  • frictions in internal security (visas,
    re-admission)
  • competition in foreign policy (rivalry in the
    CIS Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, South Caucasus)
  • stagnation of cross-border regionalism

21
RE3 Full partnership
  • Development of EU-Russia institutions beyond the
    traditional neighborhood policy
  • a Special Partner status for Russia?
  • acceptance by Russia of part of the acquis,
    institutional adaptation
  • Full cooperation in four common spaces
  • Economy EU investment, participation in the
    modernization of Russia
  • CFSP Cooperative security with Russia, replacing
    NATO as preferred partner
  • JHA full cooperation (counterterrorism),
    visa-free for RF?
  • Cultural exchange, Bologna process

22
Kaliningrad scenariospassive mode
(policy-taking)
23
Kaliningrad scenariosactive mode (policy-making)
Pilot region
24
K1 Outpost
  • Deterioration of global conditions and EU-Russia
    relations
  • geopolitical thinking, isolationism, enemy
    construction
  • higher transit costs, security tax, lifting of
    preferences
  • militarization of the Baltic Sea area, hard
    security risks
  • Kaliningrad as a double periphery
  • Alienation from Europe
  • Vicious circle of dependence on mainland Russia
  • Kaliningrad as an island economy
  • Curtailing imports from Europe
  • Collapse of the local informal economy
  • Drastic deterioration of social conditions

25
K2 Stagnation/ preferences
  • Continuation of present trends high vested
    interests
  • Local rentier behavior, shadow economy (up to 90
    ?)
  • Poland, Lithuania, transit economies of the
    Baltic and CEE
  • Russian business Dutch disease
  • Russian bureaucracy selling preferences,
    administrative rent
  • Drug addiction to preferences in the SEZ
  • No export, huge imports
  • No structural investment short-term high-risk
    investment
  • Vicious circle of parasitism and underdevelopment
  • Kaliningrad as a waste of national resources,
    value subtracted
  • Susceptible to world oil prices and Russian
    balance of account
  • Soft security risks complicating EU-Russia
    relations
  • Environment, drugs, AIDS, smuggling, migration

26
K3 Pilot Region
  • Transnational economic and policy project
  • EU and Russia as key stakeholders
  • Special institutions needed (special reps, High
    Level Group)
  • Export-oriented industrial policy, sustainable
    growth
  • Orientation to (a) EU markets and (b) Russian
    market
  • Gradual removal of current preferences,
    re-orienting incentives to export of goods and
    services
  • Making local industries competitive without
    subsidies
  • Double integration of Kaliningrad as a
    competitive advantage
  • Transition period needed to prepare local
    business to
  • a revised regime of preferences
  • liberalized energy tariffs
  • new certification requirements
  • Road Map with a timeline needed

27
Logic of the Pilot Region
  • From passive mode (Kaliningrad as a policy-taker)
    to pro-active approach (Pilot Region as a
    policy-maker)
  • Pilot Region as a harbinger of change
  • Overcoming unfavorable trends in EU-Russia
    relations
  • Pilot Region feasible under various scenarios
    except overtly isolationist and/or
    confrontational
  • Forward implementation of European Economic
    Space Improving EU-Russia compatibility through
    a common interface
  • Adaptation by Russia of part of the acquis
  • The logic of gradualism creating a Road Map
    with a timeline for specific benchmarks

28
Institutional base of the Pilot Region
  • Russian Law on the Guidelines of the Federal
    Policy towards Kaliningrad Oblast
  • Stipulating the status of a foreign territory
    of the RF
  • A Special Agreement between Russia and the EU on
    Kaliningrad
  • Introducing the Kaliningrad factor into Four
    Common Spaces

29
Guidelines of the Federal Policy towards
Kaliningrad
  • Integration into the European economic space
  • Creating the institutional base of cooperation
  • Modifying the SEZ regime
  • Improving federal and regional governance
  • Improving business climate and lowering
    administrative barriers
  • Development of infrastructure
  • Export incentives
  • Supporting small and medium business

30
Impact of the Pilot Region
  • Active shaping of the EU-Russia agenda (a
    policy-maker approach)
  • Addressing key bottlenecks of the EU-Russia
    relations
  • Improving the geopolitical situation in Europe
    after the double enlargement of the EU and NATO
  • Promoting the Global Actor scenario in the EU,
    fostering ESDI
  • Promoting modernizing attitudes in Russia,
    signaling Russia's adherence to long-term
    liberalization
  • Checking the rentier behavior of the Russian
    bureaucracy
  • Kaliningrad as a test case for the successful
    globalization of Russia
About PowerShow.com