The Contributions of the ASA Committee on Energy Statistics to the Energy Information Administration

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The Contributions of the ASA Committee on Energy
Statisticsto the Energy Information
Administration

• Calvin A. Kent, PhD
• April 9, 2008

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EIAs 1977 Mandate

• Create a clear, comprehensible and cohesive body
  of energy information
• Collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze and
  disseminate information relative to
• Resource reserves
• Energy production
• Energy demand
• Technology

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Role of EIA

• Provide policy independent data, forecasts and
  analysis
• Promote sound policy making, efficient markets
  and public understanding regarding energy and its
  relation to the economy and environment

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ASA Committee on Energy Statistics

• Provide periodic reviews of EIA data and analysis
  programs and make recommendations
• Give advice on priorities of technical and
  methodological issues of EIA statistical programs
• Advise on improved energy modeling and
  forecasting tools

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Six Major Interactions

• Data Quality-42
• Modeling-23
• Confidentiality of Data-3
• Resources and Requirements-13
• EIA Independence-1
• Timeliness vs. Accuracy-12
• All other -6

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Data Collection Issues

• Data collection (timeliness of response)-31
• Validity of data (audits, documentation and
  standards)-16
• Timeliness of dissemination-10
• Sampling techniques and survey design-19
• Incomplete/missing data (estimation)-19
• Standardization of data definitions-5

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Energy Modeling

• First statistical agency to be given a
  Congressional mandate to forecast markets
• Using simulations to forecast policy options
  greatly accelerated during the 1st Bush
• Greatest problem was the integration of the
  various EIA long and short term models

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Development of NEMS

• July 1989 Administration ordered the development
  of a more accurate and useful forecasting
  system.
• The NEMS was to equally useful in policy analysis
  as well as forecasting
• NRC (1991) evaluated the NEMS architecture and
  required that it be
• Modular
• Transparent
• Useful and rapid for policy analysis

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Development of NEMS 2

• ASA Committee was to become the required user
  group for NEMS evaluation
• From 1989 to 1996 the ASA Committee spent 26 of
  its time of NEMS related questions-more than any
  other topic
• Beginning in 1999 the ASA Committee became
  involved in the development of System of
  Analysis of Global Energy-SAGE
• Since 2001 the discussion of modeling has become
  less time consuming for the Committee

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Resources and Responsibilities

• Over its life EIA has faced the problem of
  increased responsibilities with diminishing real
  resources
• Pressure from Congress increased even faster than
  from the Executive after the oil embargo of the
  late 1970s
• In addition EIA personnel were and are still
  asked to participate in studies by other federal
  agencies (EPA, DOT, BEA etc.)

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Resources and Responsibilities

• EIA was criticized during the 1980s for
  sacrificing quality of data to other concerns
• Over the last 10 years the problems of data
  quality have required increased Committee
  attention
• EIA has made greater use of on-line
  dissemination and collection as a major way of
  reducing costs along with expanded technology

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Resources and Responsibilities

• The problems of resource limitations have
  intensified over the last 20 years by
• National Energy Strategies/Plans/Legislation
• Deregulation of natural gas and electricity
  (non-utility generation)
• Greenhouse gas reporting
• Energy efficiency (including new technologies)
• Renewable energy
• The Committee has played the key role in this
  process

13
Data Confidentiality

• There have been continuing conflicts with other
  federal agencies over access to EIAs data
• Assurance of confidentiality was necessary
  because
• Increased compliance
• Competitive advantages
• Interaction with other federal agencies
• Issue has become less pressing since the
  Confidential Information and Protection and
  Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002 and has not
  been a major concern of the Committee

14
Independence of EIA

• CRS (1980) Congress sought to centralize
  responsibility for the collection of all
  important energy information, give the agency
  independence from the policy process so that it
  would not be compromised. . .
• Independence has and continues to be most
  threatened during periods
• spiking energy prices
• issues regarding carbon emissions
• Since the Reagan Administration there has been a
  growing recognition of the need for EIAs
  independence

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Continuing Role of the ASA Committee

• Insure accuracy of data with particular emphasis
  on estimations
• Evaluate models for adequacy and effectiveness
• Review EIA publications and methods of
  dissemination
• Consult with EIA staff and critique work
• Assist in prioritizing EIAs efforts

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West Virginia Energy Flow (Trillion BTU)