Hong Kongs New Politics: A PostElection Analysis : Tracking Voter Preferences and Voters Views about

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Hong Kongs New Politics A Post-Election
Analysis ????????????Tracking Voter
Preferences andVoters Views about LegCos
Agenda???????????

• CHUNG Ting-yiu Robert ???
• Director of Public Opinion Programme, HKU
• ????????????
• 18/9/2004

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One single question ????

• What is the peoples mandate? ??????????
• What have voters mandated?
• ??????????
• What have 1.8m GC voters mandated?
• ??180????????????????
• Who have mandated whom to do what?
• ????????????
• Answered by tracking voter preferences and
  analyzing voters agenda
• ???????????????????

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Our source of data

• Continuous rolling surveys from 4 Aug to 9 Sep
• 37 days of continuous fieldwork
• 33 separate public releases from 9 Aug to 11 Sep
• accumulated sample of 16,785 registered voters
• response rates between 73 to 76
• Exit polls conducted at 101 out of 501 polling
  stations
• 9,223 actual voters interviewed
• 998 partially successful interviews, 3,611
  refusal cases
• 13,832 attempts made, response rate 66.7
• Other data sources to be exploited
• On-line survey of over 700 subjects
• Over 250 election night observers at different
  stations
• Almost 70 voluntary student researchers
  practicing site observation and exit polls

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????

• 8?4??9?9??????????
• 37 ?????, 8?9??9?11???33 ?????
• ????16,785 ?????,???73?76??
• ?501??????101??????????
• ????9,223 ??????????
• ??998 ???????,3,611 ?????
• 13,832 ???,??? 66.7
• ???????????
• ????,?? 700 ??
• ?? 250???????????????????
• ?? 70 ?????????????????????

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• 8/9/04
• our latest figure stands at 83 somewhat
  difficult for this year's turnout to surpass the
  53 of 1998 it should be comfortably higher
  than the 44 actual turnout registered in 2000.
• ????????83?????????,????????????,??????,?????200
  0 ??44?????

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• 11/9/04
• An upward trend has been observed the latest
  estimate is that the actual turnout rate this
  year should lie between 52 - 57
• ??????????????????????????????????52?57??

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Tracking HK Island voter preference

• Points to note
• Split in support between Audrey Eu and Yeung
  Sums lists, and between Rita Fan and Ma Liks
  lists
• Dip in support for Democratic Party in mid-August
• Note movements in the last 7 days, especially
  those in the last few
• Exit poll shows that 1/5 of DPs votes were
  tactical

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?????????

• ????
• ?????????????????????????????
• ????????8????
• ???????????,????????
• ????????????????1/5?????????

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Tracking KL East voter preference

• Points to note
• Fred Lis list never recovered from the plunge in
  mid-August, support appeared to have flowed to
  Alan Leong
• Chan Yuen Hans support seems to be splitting
  with Albert Cheng and Chan Kam Lam combined
• Chan Kam Lams support rapidly surged in the last
  week

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?????????

• ????
• ??????????8?????????,?????????
• ??????????????????????????
• ??????????????????

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Tracking NT East voter preference

• Points to note
• Diamond List never recovered from the plunge in
  mid-August, support might have gone to James Tien
• Long Hair Leung Kwok Hung took over Andew Wong
  in the last few days

15
?????????

• ????
• ???????????8?????????,?????????
• ?????????????????????

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A brief recapitulation ??

• Voters propensity to vote stayed high,
  last-minute surge also evident.
• Rolling poll data finds no ground for Martin
  Lees crisis call, whereas Andrew Wong, Chan Yuen
  Hans 2nd candidate (Lam Man Fai), and Cheng Kar
  Foos 4th candidate (Wong Sing Chi), might have
  been more legitimate to call for crisis.
• James Tiens support appeared to overlap with
  democrats, and may have affected Andrew Wong and
  Wong Shing Chis chances.
• Rita Fans support appeared to overlap with
  DABs, and might have reduced the chance of Choy
  So Yuk.
• Tactical voting emerged towards the end of the
  campaign period.

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A brief recapitulation ??

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• ????????????????????????????????(???)???????????(?
  ??),??????
• ??????????????,?????????????????
• ???????????????,?????????????
• ???????????????

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Exit poll results ??????
Have you ever voted before? A few dont
know answers not shown

• Same ratio of new voters among Pro-China and
  democrats supporters
• Slightly higher ratios for Liberal Party and
  non-aligned supporters

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Exit poll results ??????
??????????????? ??????????????

• ???????????????????????
• ???????????????

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Exit poll results ??????
Was your choice of candidate based mainly on the
candidates political orientation or
economic/livelihood policies? Dont
know answers not shown

• Economic and livelihood issues were voters
  primary concerns
• Supporters of democrats paid more attention to
  political issues
• 25 of pro-China and LP supporters considered
  political orientation most important

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Exit poll results ??????
?????????????????????????? ?????/????????

• ????????????????
• ????????????????
• ????????????25???????

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Exit poll results ??????
When do you think condition is ripe for CE to be
returned by universal suffrage?

• ½ of democrats supporters opted for 2007 LP
  supporters, ¼ pro-China supporters, 1/6 for all
  voters, 39
• Using 2012 as the watershed, democrats, 70 LP
  supporters, 55 pro-China supporters, 43 all
  voters, 61

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Exit poll results ??????
?????????????????????

• ???????1/2??2007??????,????????1/4,????????1/6,???
  ???39
• ?2012????,???????70????????,????????55,????????4
  3,??????61

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Exit poll results ??????
When do you think condition is ripe for all LC
members to be returned by universal suffrage,
meaning the abolition of functional
constituencies?

• 57 of democrats supporters opted for 2008 LP
  supporters, 31 pro-China supporters, 21 for
  all voters, 45 all percentages higher than
  those for CE returned by universal suffrage in
  2007
• Using 2012 as the watershed, democrats, 68 LP
  supporters, 51 pro-China supporters, 41 all
  voters, 60 almost the same as those for CE
  returned by universal suffrage in 2007

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Exit poll results ??????
?????????????????????,????????????

• ???????57??2008?????,????????31,????????21,????
  ??45,??????2007??????
• ?2012????,???????68????????,????????51,????????4
  1,??????60,???2007??????????

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Exit poll results ??????
Are you satisfied with the performance of the SAR
Government? Dont know answers not
shown

• Supporters of democrats most dissatisfied with
  the government, LP supporters more on the
  negative side, while pro-China supporters stood
  at the middle with a slightly positive slant
• Only 13 of all voters were satisfied with the
  government

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Exit poll results ??????
???????????????? ?????/????????

• ?????????????,???????????????,??????????????
• ???????13????????

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Exit poll results ??????
Did you join any of the July 1 Rallies? A
few dont know answers not shown

• Supporters of democrats have the highest
  percentages
• LP followed, pro-China supporters also have 8
• 28 for all voters

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Exit poll results ??????
???????????? ????????????

• ??????????????????
• ?????,??????8
• ??????28

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A brief recapitulation ??

• New voters did not give landslide support to the
  democrats, their split in support was the same as
  that of the general electorate
• Those who cared more about the political agenda
  tended to support the democrats
• About 60 voters supported universal suffrage in
  2012, 40 even among pro-China supporters
• Very few were satisfied with SARG, among them,
  69 voted for the pro-China camp
• 87 of July 1 participants voted for democrats

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A brief recapitulation ??

• ??????????????,?????????
• ??????????????
• ?60????2012???,??????????40
• ??????????????,????69?????
• ???????87?????

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Some worrying development ????

• Tactical voting plus election engineering have
  become the key to success, at the expense of
  focusing on substantive issues and making simple
  choices.
• Increasing use of negative campaigning also
  shifts voters attention from policy issues to
  individual personality. Certain newspapers have
  become spearheads of scandal attacks.
• Negative campaigning are spilling over to the
  media, policy research institutes, polling
  organizations and the academia, all being
  important infrastructures for open society.
• Political parties are using exit polls more
  frequently and extensively for election
  engineering, which may one day destroy the
  credibility of exit polls.

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Some worrying development ????

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• ????????????????????????????,????,????????????????
  ?????
• ?????????? ,???????????

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Some positive thinking ????

• Consensus apparently struck on universal suffrage
  in 2012.
• Central Peoples Government less hostile to Hong
  Kong peoples demand, than during NPCs ruling on
  universal suffrage.
• New faces in LegCo Radical Long Hair Leung
  Kwok Hung and Taipan Albert Cheng symbolize an
  open system not yet monopolized by conservative
  forces.
• Pan-democrats represented by members of the
  Article 45 Concern Group symbolize the strong
  presence of professional forces, especially in
  regard to the rule of law.
• The political spectrum is therefore widened to
  include more radicals at one end, and stretched
  in the middle to include pan-democrats and
  Liberal Party members returned by direct
  election.
• Absorption politics may take on new light and
  reach new height.

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Some positive thinking ????

• 2012 ???????
• ?????????????????????
• ????????????????????,????????,??????????
• ?????45?????????????????,?????????????????????
• ??????,?????????,???????????????????
• ??????????,????

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Conclusion ??

• Hong Kong today is no longer the Hong Kong
  yesterday 4 June 1989, 15 Sept 1991, 1 July
  1997, 1 July 2003 and 12 Sept 2004 will all go
  into our history book as dates we will not
  forget.
• ???????1989?6?4?1991?9?15?1997?7?1?2003?7?1?2004?9
  ?12,????????????

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Thank you very much!??!