Inputs Into the Pipeline

1
Where Florida Stands

• Inputs (Into the Pipeline)
• Resource Demands (Pipeline Flow-through)
• Outputs and Outcomes (Out of the pipeline)

• Population
• Demographics
• Educational attainment
• Deficient adults
• HS students

• Enrollment demands
• Fiscal issues
• Facilities issues

• Numbers of graduates
• Labor Market Demands
• Economic Development
• Student Demand

2

• Florida is the fourth largest state in the nation
• With nearly 16 million people, it accounts for
  almost 6 of the nations population.

3

• Florida has the 2nd highest median age level in
  the Nation. It ranks first in the proportion of
  its population that is 65 years old or older.
• Older populations place demands on other
  portions of the state budget and may place a
  lower priority on higher education.
• Needed a strategy to make higher education a
  higher public priority

4

• The educational attainment of Floridas
  population is similar to that of the nation.
• Contributing factors
• higher education output (Relatively high at the
  associates level and low at the Bachelors
  level).
• Florida in-migrates credentialed individuals

5
Actual and Projected High School Graduates
Standard Diplomas, 1982-83 through 2020-21
Thousands
The supply of public high school graduates is
expected to continue increasing in the
foreseeable future, increasing from about 100,000
currently to about 160,000 by the year 2021.
180
Projected
Actual
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
82-83
84-85
86-87
88-89
90-91
92-93
94-95
96-97
98-99
00-01
02-03
04-05
06-07
08-09
10-11
12-13
14-15
16-17
18-19
20-21
83-84
85-86
87-88
89-90
91-92
93-94
95-96
97-98
99-00
01-02
03-04
05-06
07-08
09-10
11-12
13-14
15-16
17-18
19-20
Source Martha Miller, "Projected Florida High
School Graduates 2001-2002 - - 2020-2021,
February 2002", Table 4.
6

• There has been a decrease in the share of HS
  grads earning the standard diploma, the
  credential typically required for entry into
  higher education.
• Over the last decade, this percentage fell 6
  percentage points.

7
Florida Public High School Graduates by Race
Standard Diplomas - 1977 - 2001

• As a population, those receiving standard
  diplomas has become more diverse.
• Hispanic graduates increased 168 over the
  period, while African Americans increased 34 ,
  Whites 2.

8
The Florida Public High School Class of 2000-
Fall Follow-up
Total Individuals 99,821 Total Findings 88,367
(88)
Florida Employment 1. Found employed 56,959
(57) -full time 18,599 (33 of employed) 2.
Quarterly Earnings 2,201 -full time
quarterly 4,045 Federal Employment 1.
Civilian Employment 159 (lt1) (US Postal
Service, Fed. Career Service) 2. Military
Enlistments 3,417 (3)
Florida Psec. 57,798 58 1. School District
1,798 (4 of Psecs) 2. Comm. College 32,919
(57) (44 AA, 44 other, balance
wrkforce) 3. Public Univ. 18,877 (38) 4.
Independent Univ. 3,412 (6) Outside of Florida
6,916 (7)
Other Information 1. Employed Enrolled
36,390 (63 of Florida Postsecondary
enrs) 2. Public Assistance 2 of total
3. State Corrections lt1 of total
Notes 1999-00 public HS graduates - standard
diplomas. Source FETPIP annual matches
9
The Florida Public High School Class of 2000-
Fall Follow-up
Total Individuals 99,821 Total Findings 88,367
(88)
Florida Psec. 57,798 58 1. School District
1,798 (4 of Psecs) 2. Comm. College 32,919
(57) (44 AA, 44 other, balance
wrkforce) 3. Public Univ. 18,877 (38) 4.
Independent Univ. 3,412 (6) Outside of Florida
6,916 (7)

• Based on the class of June 2000 Florida public
  high school graduates, 58 were found pursuing
  postsecondary education in Florida.
• Another 7 were found enrolled in postsecondary
  education in other states.

Notes 1999-00 public HS graduates - standard
diplomas. Source FETPIP annual matches
10
Florida Public High School Class of 2000

• In 39 of the 67 school districts, the rate of
  participation in Florida postsecondary education
  following high school graduation was below the
  statewide average of 58.
• The above - average counties are largely urban
  and/or are served by a concentration of
  postsecondary institutions.

Continuing Education Rates, Fall 2000
C
o
n
t
i
n
u
i
n
2
9


-

4
6

4
6


-

5
0

5
0


-

5
4

5
4


-

5
7

5
7


-

7
2








.

.
Source FETPIP and National Student
Clearinghouse in-state and out-of-state
11

Continuing Education Trends for Florida High
School Graduates

• The percentage of Florida public HS grads found
  pursuing postsecondary education in Florida has
  risen by 10 percentage points since June 1991.
• Even so, Florida ranked 43rd nationally on this
  measure and last among the ten largest states.

Graduating Classes from 1991-2000 with Standard
Diploma - Found enrolled in Florida
Postsecondary Education/Receiving FRAG in the
Fall Following their Graduation
Percent of Graduates found enrolled
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990-91
1991-92
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1997-98
1998-99
1999-00
Source FETPIP, and Chance for College by Age 19
by State in 1998. Postsecondary Education
Opportunity, No. 98, August 2000.
12

• Over time, the proportion of any high school
  graduating class continuing in Florida
  postsecondary education dwindles.
• Tracking the class of 1996-97 longitudinally
  reveals a decline in overall postsecondary
  participation and a stop-in/stop-out mode of
  enrollment.

1996-97 Florida Public High School Graduates
In - State Fall Postsecondary Enrollment 1997 to
2000
N 89,849 Graduates In Cohort
2,578 original
Thousands
graduates not
50
previously
740 '98s
1,235 '99
45
enrolled
who left in
returnees
'99
40
6,586 new in '98
45,618 initial
2,089 returning
35
postsecondary
2,932 new in '99
enrollments, fall
3,531 from '98
30
'97
1,627 from '99
2,537 from '98
25
35,804 continue
29,010 originals
in fall '98
20
still enrolled,
24,936
fall 1999...
15
originals
still enrolled,
10
fall 2000
5
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source FETPIP Florida Independent Colleges and
Universities represented by FRAG
13
1990-1991 High School Graduates Highest
Educational Attainment Level as of Fall 2000

79,928 Students

• 10 years after graduating from high school, most
  of those who acquired a high school diploma in
  1991 had not earned a higher-level credential.
• The subsequent earning of a postsecondary
  credential was less pronounced for males and
  minorities.

More than
Masters
1
High School Diploma 62
Outside
3.4
Masters
1.7
Bachelors
14.4
College Credit
Vocational
2.6
Vocational
Associate
Certificate 5.9
of Arts 7.8

Estimate of out-of-state Postsecondary
attainment at any level.
Any type of degree or
specialization past masters...
Source FETPIP Longitudinal
14
Highest Educational Attainment Level of
Dropouts as of Fall 2000

• Dropouts who would have graduated with the class
  of 1991 attained education credentials, including
  high school diplomas or equivalencies at much
  lower rates than their HS grad counterparts.

13,742 High School Dropouts from 1990-1991
Masters lt1
College
Credit
Attainment Status
Vocational
unchanged 68.2
lt1
Bachelors
1
Associate of
Arts 1
GEDs
Vocational
20.8
Certificates
4.4
Adult High
School
Diplomas
Does not include any
5
out-of state credentials.
Source FETPIP Longitudinal
15
Total Number of Higher Education Institutions
per 1 Million Target Age Population
Florida lags the nation in number of
institutions per 18-44 year old population. This
is true across all institution types.
SOURCE PEPC Update of State-Level Planning
Guidelines for New Colleges and Universities in
Florida, 2001.
16
Average Enrollment in Public Two-Year Institutions
Floridas public community colleges are over
twice as large as the national average, ranking
the state 3rd overall and 1st among the 10
largest states.
SOURCE National Center for Education
Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System.
17
Average Undergraduate Enrollment in Public
Four-Year Institutions
The same is true of Floridas public
four-year institutions, where the state ranks 2nd
overall and 1st among the 10 largest states in
average undergraduate enrollment.
SOURCE National Center for Education
Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education
Data System.
18
Lower Division Enrollment per Target Age
Population
Florida does a good job of providing lower
division access, as reflected by enrollments in
state institutions per 18-44 year old population
SOURCE PEPC Update of State-Level Planning
Guidelines for New Colleges and Universities in
Florida, 2001.
19
Upper Division Enrollment per Target Age
Population
... but lags behind most states in terms of
upper division enrollment per 18-44 year old
population.
SOURCE PEPC Update of State-Level Planning
Guidelines for New Colleges and Universities in
Florida, 2001.
20
Associate Degrees Granted per 100,000 Target Age
Population 1999-2000
In 1999-2000, Florida ranked 7th nationally
in associates degrees awarded per 100,000
residents age 18-44 and 1st among the ten
largest states.
FL599
U.S. Avg 403
SOURCE NCES (IPEDS) and U.S. Census.
21
Bachelors Degrees Granted per 100,000 Target Age
Population 1999-2000
but was ranked 45th in the production of
bachelors degrees from public and private 4-year
institutions and 7th among the 10 largest
states.
U.S. Avg 1,235
FL847
SOURCE NCES (IPEDS) and U.S. Census.
22

• According to Floridas Revenue Estimating
  Conference of the fall of 2001, general revenue
  receipts are expected to increase at consistent
  pace from approximately 18 Billion to about 32
  Billion by 2011.

Projected
Actual
23
Total Postsecondary Expenditures per Capita
Public and Private Institutions
Public and Private Sources, 12 Largest States

1,000
Florida trails the 12 largest states in
spending per capita across all institutions,
funding sources, and spending categories
800
600
400
200
0
NY
PA
NC
IL
US
MI
CA
VA
OH
GA
NJ
TX
FL
Source Chronicle of Higher Education, web site
and August 31, 2001 Almanac Issue, 2001-02
24
Legislative Appropriations to Education, by
Fund Florida, 1998-99 to 2001-02
Since 1998-99, legislative appropriations for
education have increased from 13.5 to 15.5
billion, an average increase of 4.5 per year.
The most recent increase was more modest.
Notes Current dollars. Includes General
Revenue, Lottery, Other Trust Funds.
25
Sector Percentages of State Appropriations to
Education, 1998-99 to 2001-02

• Since 1998-99 there has been little change in the
  distribution of legislative appropriations for
  education by sector.
• Public schools (K-12 education) account for the
  majority of the appropriation (about 60) each
  year. The share of the education appropriation
  devoted to universities and workforce development
  changed little during this time period,
  accounting for about 17 and 6, respectively.
• Community colleges and other education account
  for the most noticeable difference in the
  distribution of appropriations.

Source Senate Appropriations Committee Report, A
Statistical Review of Education in Florida
Enrollment, Funding, and Selected Topics,
2001-02 through 1998-99 Editions.
26
Funded and Unfunded Facilities Maintenance Needs,
2001-02

• In 2001-02, the State funded only 31 of its
  ongoing Priority I needs for facilities
  maintenance and renovation in community colleges
  and state universities.
• 220 million of 710 million in calculated need
  was funded, leaving 490 million of unfunded
  need.

Source Commissioner of Educations 2001-02 Fixed
Capital Outlay Budget Request. March 23, 2001.
27
(No Transcript)
28
State Grant dollars per undergraduate FTE Ten
Largest States 1999-2000
Florida exceeds the national average and ranks
6th among the large states in state grant funding
per undergraduate FTE student. Florida
provides grant aid to undergraduates at a level
consistent with the largest states.
Source NASSGAP 31st Annual Survey Report,
1999-2000 Academic Year. Note Undergraduate FTE
and dollars awarded.
29
Non need-based State Grant dollars per
undergraduate FTE Ten Largest States 1999-2000
Non need-based state grant dollars averaged
773 per FTE in 1999-2000, ranking Florida 2nd
among the 10 largest states.
Source NASSGAP 31st Annual Survey Report,
1999-2000 Academic Year. Note Undergraduate FTE
and dollars awarded.
30
Need-based State Grant dollars per undergraduate
FTE Ten Largest States 1999-2000
Need-based state grant dollars averaged 154
per FTE in 1999-2000, ranking Florida 9th among
the 10 largest states.
Source NASSGAP 31st Annual Survey Report,
1999-2000 Academic Year. Note Undergraduate FTE
and dollars awarded.
31
Floridas Annual Job Growth Ranked it Number 1
in the Nation in 2001 Both in the Number of new
Jobs and in percent change
In Numbers
In Percent Change
Source Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation,
Labor Market Statistics in cooperation with the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
32
Based on Number of Jobs
4,249,000
1,759,000
Associate Degree Requirements make up about 2.8
21,807,000
6,710,000
7,891,000
24,932,000
91,665,000
33
Based on Number of Openings
Projected Florida Employment in 2009
by Educational Attainment Requirements
194,097
Doctorate or Professional
Associate Degree Requirements, about 4.5
74,811
Masters
1,084,722
Bachelors
386,669
Associate
347,592
Psec Vocational
1,467,886
High School
4,987,515
Less than high school
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Millions
Source Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation
34
Based on Percent growth
35
Examples of the Nations Top Growth Jobs

• Computer Software Engineers (expected 100 growth
  in 10 years)
• Computer Support Specialists (97 Growth)
• Network Systems Administrators (92)
• Home Health Aids (47)
• Veterinary Technologists (39)

36
Based on Percent growth
37
Examples of Floridas Top Growth Jobs

• Computer Software Engineers (expected 72 growth
  in 10 years)
• Computer Support Specialists (102 Growth)
• Surgical Technicians (71)
• Home Health Aids (59)
• Securities/Financial Services Sales (49)

38
Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers
With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census
Bureau and National Alliance of Business
39
Nationally, as the level of educational
attainment increases, there is a corresponding
increase in annual earnings of those employed.
There is also a decrease in the likelihood of
unemployment.
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics 2001
40
Floridas graduates earn salaries that
generally increase as they attain higher levels
of educational credentials. Earnings for high
school graduates in 1991, started at about
11,800 per year for full time work. Each year
after graduation, the amount increased but began
to level off in 1997-98.
41
State University System
Contract and Grant Expenditures

• Research and Development in universities is
  funded through contracts and grants.
• Contract and grant expenditures in Florida
  institutions have increased from about 400
  Million in 1991 to about 900 Million in 2001.

Millions
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1980-81
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
1981-82
1983-84
1985-86
1987-88
1989-90
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
Source Contract and Grant Operating Budgets,
Florida Division of Colleges and
Universities.. Note Expenditures, all funding
sources
42
Florida ranks 10th among the 12 largest states
in Research and Development expenditures...
Source Chronicle of Higher Education. Note Expen
ditures, all funding sources
43
When examined on a per capita basis, Florida
is below the national average for RD
expenditures, and ranks 12th among the larger
states.
Source Chronicle of Higher Education. Note Expen
ditures, all funding sources
44
Reasons Noted as Very Important in Pursuing
Higher Education
In the fall of 2000, entering freshman cited a
number of reasons for pursuing postsecondary
education.
Source The American College Freshman National
Norms for Fall 2000. Cooperative Institutional
Research Program, UCLA
45
Summary Points

• Inputs (Into the Pipeline)
• Resource Demands (Pipeline Follow-through)
• Outputs and Outcomes (Out of the pipeline)