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Global Higher Education . . . a changing landscape

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Title: Global Higher Education . . . a changing landscape


1
Global Higher Education . . . a changing
landscape
education and training opportunities in
the
international marketplace
Presentation to - VTA State Conference, Melbourne

21/22 April 2005
  • Ron Perkinson
  • Principal Education Specialist
  • International Finance Corporation
  • (World Bank Group)
  • www.ifc.org

2
The Global Education Market
  • Total 2.3 trillion
    approx one third of
    market in USA
    around 15 only in the developing world
  • Teachers 5 of global labor force
  • Primary Secondary Education
    substantially
    public funded
  • Tertiary Adult Education
    changing
    landscape - free provision disappearing
    regulatory -
    governments more liberalized
    private sector participation
    growing

Sources Merrill Lynch 2000 OECD 2002 World
Bank IFC
3
Higher Education Worldwide
  • Yr 2000 there were over 90 million students
    enrolled in higher education worldwide
  • By 2003 est. over 100 million students worldwide
    approx 4 m of the 11 inc.
    was in China alone around 2 m
    increase in India the same period
  • The Private higher education market is estimated
    to be worth more than 300 billion worldwide on
    current expenditures alone and growing

Sources Merryl Lynch 2000 IFC staff estimates
World Bank
4
Higher Education the perfect storm
. . . the seven
converging forces of change
  • The increasing importance of knowledge
  • The change in demographics
  • Decline in public financing sourcing
    alternative financing
  • The further impact of globalization
  • The impact of increasing competition
  • The continued impact of internationalization
  • The continuing Information Communications
    Technologies revolution

Source World Bank Constructing Knowledge
Economies 2002 The Changing Enterprise ACE
2002 International Finance Corporation
5
World Population Growth
Source 6 Billion Human Beings - Musée de
l'Homme Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle,
Paris France World Bank/
IFC
6
Financing of Higher Education
7
World Bank Group
4 decades of education lending
65
22
Projects supporting more than one level of
education or projects such as those supporting
lifelong learning that do not fit well into one
of the other categories
8
Between 2003 to 2005 the of lending for
higher education declines further
9
Funding Comparatives
. . . the most populous examples
Sources UNESCO 1999 2000 World Bank 2001 US
Department of Education 2001 Department of
Education Skills UK, 2002 China National
Center for Education, 2002/3 OECD 2002 All
Sth East Asian countries without China India
10
Tertiary Education in Biggest 40 Developing
Countries
OECD 7,712 2001
618
Sources World Bank Development Indicators World
Bank Edstats UNESCO Global Education Digest
OECD Education at a Glance IFC
calculations Developing 40 includes Angola,
Argentina, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria,
Cambodia, Chile, China,Colombia,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana,
Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Jamaica,
Jordan, Kenya, Madagascar, Malaysia,
Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique, Pakistan, Peru,
Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal,
South Africa, Thailand, Trinidad
Tobago, Turkey, Uganda, Uruguay, and Vietnam
Note All amounts are in constant 1995 US Values
11
Enrollments Tertiary Sector
Sources World Bank Development Indicators World
Bank Edstats UNESCO Global Education Digest
OECD Education at a Glance IFC
calculations Developing Asia includes
Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam
32 Developing Country Sample includes Angola,
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria,Chile,Colombi
a, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana,
Guatemala, Hungary, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya,
Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique,
Pakistan, Peru,Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal,
South Africa, Trinidad Tobago, Turkey, Uganda,
and Uruguay
12
Spending Per Student Tertiary Sector
Developing Asias Global Peers include Angola,
Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria,Chile,Colombi
a, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana,
Guatemala, Hungary, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya,
Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico, Mozambique,
Pakistan, Peru,Poland, Romania, Russia, Senegal,
South Africa, Trinidad Tobago, Turkey, Uganda,
and Uruguay
13
Enrollment in Private Higher Education (as a of
total)
Sources EdStats, World Bank IFC OECD Various
Government Statistics Chile includes 7 publicly
funded Private Catholic Universities
14
Knowledge Drives Economic Development
. . . important
impact comes from skills literacy
  • Knowledge is an all important driver of economic
    development
  • Not just about putting more highly qualified
    people in to higher paying jobs
  • Proven impact on economic development comes from
    increasing skills literacy mid higher level
    skills are not just about degrees indications
    show quite the opposite (University of British
    Colombia Literacy Survey)
  • New skills training knowledge dissemination of
    economic relevance need to reach larger firms,
    private sector, SMEs, micro-enterprise,
    individuals and the unemployed
    reach
    traditional sectors (agriculture, small
    manufacturing, services, crafts, tourism, etc)

    to help economies be more productive and
    competitive
  • More highly skilled workforce isnt just for big
    firms and government
  • Need to turn countrys human resources into
    strategic advantage

Source University of British Columbia
Literacy Survey Ana Ferrer, David A. Green,
and W. Craig Riddell - The International Adult
Literacy Survey (IALS) was a 22-country
initiative conducted between 1994 and 1998.

http//www.statcan.ca/english/research/89-552-MIE/
89-552-MIE2004012.pdf
15
Lifelong Learning
Changing Student Profiles
  • Adults with tertiary qualifications increased
    from 22 to 41 over last 25 years in OECD
    countries
  • Over 40 of undergraduates in US 30 of
    Canadas undergraduate students are over 25 yrs
  • Yr 2000 over 20 of first year university
    students were over 27 yrs in
    Australia, NZ, Denmark, Norway Sweden
  • Lifelong learning attracting new learners more
    diversified older and
    part time students

Sources OECD 2000 The Changing Enterprise
ACE 2002
16
Lifelong Learning
  • Developing a Lifelong Learning Framework
  • Requires fundamental changes to the education
    system
  • HEIs need to adapt change Missions,
    pedagogical processes, accommodate different
    learning models (formal education / on-the-job
    training / at home learners)
  • The role of technology can expand access and
    change the nature of learning facilitating new
    modes of delivery (e.g. distance / online
    learning) and mixed modes
  • The framework will accommodate the constant
    updating of skills, to develop a highly qualified
    and flexible labor force with new sets of skills
    and competencies
  • Becoming increasingly important in Asian markets

17
Globalization
Internationalization
18
Cross Border Investment
HEI Campuses In Foreign Countries
  • Since Yr 2000
  • Laureate (previously Sylvan International
    Universities) invested in Spain, France,
    Switzerland, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, Panama,
    Costa Rica, Peru and looking elsewhere
  • Apollo International invested in Mexico, India,
    Holland, Brazil
  • University of Nottingham CIBT/Apollo in China
  • RMIT in Vietnam
  • Monash in South Africa
  • Universitas 21 in Singapore
  • Manipal in Nepal and Malaysia

Sources Chronicle June 2003 Company 10-K
Reports IFC 2004
19
UK recent foreign campus
examples in China
University of Nottingham
first
foreign HEI to open a campus in China (Sept 2004)

same degrees awarded sit same exams

foreign/cultural language
immersion alternatives
over
50 UK academic involvement improving
internationalization Napier University of
Edinburgh
NU opening an
international franchise campus on Zhengzhou
University of Light Industry, Henan Province,
China Chinese
students study for Scottish degree in China
Now exploring
potential for undergraduate and postgraduate
exchange programs, as well as research
Sources The Scotsman 1st October 2004
Business China 14 March 2005 IFC 2005
20
Students Studying Abroad
  • Yr 2000 - gt1.6 million international tertiary
    students abroad in OECD countries alone

    over 2 million across the
    world
    estimate 8 million students by
    2025
  • In 2004 USA dropped to 576,000 or about 35 of
    OECD total UK (14)
    Australia (13) Germany (12) France ( 8 )
    NZ ( 5 ) most from developing countries
    Chinese students
    Australia (43 last year) NZ (60 of total
    univ)
  • China gt 60,000 foreign students in 2002 of
    which approx 70 from Asia 12 from Europe
    11 from the USA growing
  • Russia In 2001, 90,000 students 40,000 from
    CIS countries around 100,000 today
  • Malaysia 37,000 students today

Sources OECD 2000, 2002 AUSTRADE 2003 NZ Trade
2003 China Education Yearbook, 2002 Education
World 2003 Malaysia MoE 2004
21
International Students Big Business
  • Australia

    210,000 foreign students in
    Yr 2003 - with 18,000 in off-shore VET, in 24
    countries - more than 50 were located in China

    predicting 560,000
    foreign students by 2025
    double again in
    distance programs
  • of Service Exports

    13 and 8 respectively of
    Australia and NZs in Yr 2003

    4.2 and 3.2 respectively
    of US and UKs

Sources OECD IFC World Bank Report
commissioned by IDP Education Australia AIEA
Fact Sheet NCVER Australia 2005 China
Education Yearbook, 2002 World Bank Bashir
2005 last figure Yr 2000
22
But the trends are changing - 1
  • In 2003 Australia became second most expensive
    country to study in after the UK, with tuition
    costs more than doubling since 2001
  • Annual living costs for students in popular
    English speaking countries - UK (US11,152)
    Australia (US9,519) Canada and US (just under
    US9,000) NZ (US8,686)
  • Competition increasing from Asian countries
    Hong Kong
    (US7,081) India (US1,515)
  • Australia impacted by Aus FOREX increase plus
    12 pa inc in tuition fees and living expenses
    plus other factors

Sources Comparative Costs of Higher Education
for International Students 2004 IDP, Australia
23
But the trends are changing - 2
  • China
  • Record 20 million students enrolled in Chinese
    colleges in 2004 the largest college-student
    population in the world
  • 4.2 million freshmen accepted - double the number
    of 1998
  • College acceptance rate this year was about 60
  • University TVET students see growing
    attractiveness to study at home - Less Visa
    complications
  • Growing two-way relationships with foreign
    partners
  • Singapore

    170 private tertiary providers with
    119,000 students
    75 of them study in foreign joint/affiliate
    programs 35 were over 30yrs
    30 were 25yrs to 29 yrs
    most were lifelong learners

Sources Business China 14 March 2005 IFC 2005
24
But the trends are changing - 3
  • British universities also rely heavily on the
    Chinese market
  • In 2004 overseas students grew to around 200,000,
    bringing in over 1.25 billion or 2.4 billion in
    fees
  • International student numbers fell by 5.3 in
    2005
  • China made up 25 of UK 2004 international
    student numbers
  • UK feedback - Reasons for changing trends in
    China include
    the perceived
    improvement of institutional quality in China
    - more appealing to study at home

    the Chinese labor market no
    longer putting such a large premium on foreign
    degrees

    local and
    foreign qualifications, joint foreign degrees and
    local work experience count for greater
    employability

    Certified training and LL/Lng programs
    growing in appeal
  • In 2005 British HEIs have around 160 joint
    program affiliations with Chinese HEIs, with
    many more planned

Source Economist - March 2005 IFC
25
Chinas Learning Needs Beyond Formal Education
Beyond Retirement Age
Training for the unemployed
Labour Force (750m)
Remedial/ Updating/ Upskilling the Participating
Workforce
Adult learners
Government Failure students out of school
Higher Ed
Secondary
Formal Education (244m)
Basic Education
26
International student preferences and
destinations are changing
  • Greater competition from LAC, EU, Central America
  • Partial international study can satisfy cultural
    immersion needs
  • Universities used to hold the high ground
    new
    systems of education, training and lifelong
    learning are demanding programs of greater
    economic relevance both university and
    non-university tertiary

  • the educational, social and commercial gains
    from University / TAFE partnerships in cross
    border trade in education services are yet to be
    optimized

27
And are AID and TRADE talking to each other?
  • AID needs TRADE in selected projects to convert
    Technical Assistance in to downstream
    sustainability
  • TRADE in some cases can leverage alternative
    downstream resources that governments can no
    longer afford to carry

28
Demand For Greater Program Diversity
  • Employers in region requiring educational
    credentials or certified training important
    for job market
  • Employers seeking greater flexibility of program
    choice want training and job
    preparation for jobs that exist and improved
    competencies for career enhancement
  • Typical local career providers can include
  • Professional schools accounting, language
  • Business schools
  • Engineering schools
  • Training in ICTs low / med / high-end
    technologies
  • Industry schools (tourism agri-business
    forestry fishing etc)

29
Local Context Is All Important
  • What is the role of government enabler or
    controller?
  • Local education policy objectives and what is
    the effectiveness of local policies and
    frameworks
  • Adequacy of student financial support
  • Understanding of economic and social development
     
  • demand for fee-paying programs

    demand, supply gaps in public provision
    relevance of
    current programs
    needs of traditional
    sectors
  • Historic educational traditions, social
    cultural values
    or in past political ideology
    (Africa, CEE, India)

30
Changing Business Models
  • Changing modus operandi Public goes Commercial
    / Private new forms of competition
  • Shift from venue-driven to market-driven
    delivery systems
  • Market demand for flexible delivery options
    (evenings weekends distance learning use of
    new learning technologies)
  • The campus-based to web-based Continuum, is
    changing models
    academic and investment confidence
    in e-learning is growing 
  • From isolated university models to linked HEI
    courses QA and credit
    transfer systems
    broader
    options and career pathways
  • Separation of institutional management and
    academic power of faculty different control
    over business administration

31
Distance Education
  • Tertiary distance education fastest growing
    sub-sector represents at
    least 15 of all higher educations students
  • Asia has 3.5 m students (2000)
  • 30 of all tertiary courses in Russia are
    distance
  • LAC has over 1 million tertiary distance
    education students
  • E.A.D.T.U. 18 members 14 countries gt
    900,000 students
  • British Open University with over 154,000
    students
    also delivers in to developing countries
  • Australia over 50 of foreign students enrolled
    on Australian campuses from Singapore and Hong
    Kong, are distance

Source The Changing Enterprise ACE 2002
World Bank IFC IDP Education Australia 2002
32
On-Line Education steady growth
  • Yr 2002, 19 of corporate training in US was
    on-line up from around 7 three years
    earlier est
    150 billion industry by 2025
    major growth predicted
    in developing countries
  • Estimate approaching 1m students on-line in China
  • Tec de Monterrey has over 100,000 students
    Universidad Virtual has gt80,000 doing part or all
    courses on-line over 5,000 outside
    of Mexico
  • In the US - 1.9 million students studying on-line
    in 2003 2.6 million
    students (16 over all) in 2004, or 24 increase.
    Approx 40 of these are fully on-line (18 inc)

Sources IDC IFC Tec de Monterrey 2003 World
Bank / AVU 2003 Sloan Consortium 2004
33
University of Phoenix On-Line
Enrollment Growth
109,800
79,400
49400
29000
18000
10,000
Source Chronicle Nov 2002 Charles Schwab Sept
15th 2004
34
Cross border education opportunities
  • Internationalization provides easy and low risk
    stepping-off point

    for customizing and
    disseminating new types of knowledge and skills
  • program partnerships - for improving
    curriculum content, development research
  • opportunities for student and faculty exchange
    plus joint programs that accommodate cultural
    immersion
  • adding value by facilitating transferability
    of credits and qualifications (Are the
    advantages of having a qualifications framework
    at home, being optimized?)
  • Internationalization can lead to other
    commercial initiatives

35
PPP Example - Blended Campus/On-line Joint Degree
  • Stevens Institute of Technology - China Hybrid
    Program
  • 1/3 taught online by Stevens faculty / 1/3 taught
    by Chinese faculty using Stevens curriculum / 1/3
    taught by Stevens faculty onsite in Beijing
  • Tuition - Revenues split 50-50 between schools
  • Chinese pay for classrooms, Chinese faculty,
    local software and workstations
  • Stevens pays for Stevens faculty, travel, housing
  • Stevens is university of record holds student
    transcripts and history
  • Chinese manage classrooms, logistics and Ministry
    of Education
  • Partner Institutions in China
  • Beijing Institute of Technology Shanghai Jiao
    Tong University Central University of
    Finance Economics

36
For International Consulting . . .
  • Local governments are World Bank clients
  • Local market will hold the greatest power and
    influence when deciding who to use so it
    bodes well for those that Internationalize and
    get on the ground first!
  • Decision making local experience is important
    Internationalization
    and program affiliations the quickest way to
    obtain local experience support
  • Private higher education providers
    not
    to be underestimated
    tend to
    respond more quickly to joint initiatives
    strong reputations
    for quality relevance of local programs, with
    high employability of graduates
  • Use of donor/ grant/ trust funds to assist with
    positioning
  • Promote successes publish case studies

37
Future Outlook
Financing of education will tighten
demographics outweigh fiscal realities growth
in non-public financing New business models
Public going Private trend will grow
Knowledge societies and lifelong learning
important for economic development more
flexible mass e-delivery
new systems for education and
training Globalization and Internationalization
changing the future landscape of higher
education, national and cross-border
transferability of credits
qualifications, national foreign
optimizing Education/AID/Trade efforts
investments essential ICTs and the Internet
optimizing use of new technologies
models advancing quality-based mass education
delivery
38
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