Framework and assessment methodology for policy coherence for development: Draft Report for OECD

1
Framework and assessment methodology for policy
coherence for developmentDraft Report for
OECD

• 16th June, Paris
• Nick Bozeat

2
Presentation Overview

• Introduction
• Existing assessment tools relevant to the
  application and the assessment of PCD
• A general framework for assessing the progress of
  PCD
• Measuring the progress of PCD in specific sectors
• Recommendations

3
Introduction

• Need for PCD clear, taken as starting point
• Report considers evaluation of PCD, and
• Evaluation to improve PCD
• Key challenges
• evaluation has scrutiny and learning objectives
  and needs motivation
• PCD one factor affecting development
• PCD at national level one component of PCD

4
Existing relevant assessment tools

• Baseline assessment
• the assessment of the presence of PCD processes
  in OECD countries is informed through peer
  reviews. There is scope for the application of
  process evaluation and benchmarking.
• The conditions that pertain in developing
  countries can be informed by analyses of
  secondary source data and case studies.
• The links between member state policies and
  effects in developing countries can be informed
  by substantive theory and research, expert panels
  and the categorization of developing countries.

5
continued

• Prospective evaluation
• the identification of anticipated economic,
  social and environmental impacts on developing
  countries can be informed by theories of change,
  logic models, in some cases econometric models
  and scenario development.
• The identification of the costs and financial
  returns of policies and initiatives can be
  informed by cost benefit analysis, monetization
  of social impacts and monetization of
  environmental impacts.
• The identification of risks and trade-offs can be
  informed by risk assessment and multi-criteria
  analysis.

6
continued

• Retrospective evaluation
• The identification of economic, social and
  environmental impacts can be informed by
  indicator systems, social surveys, business
  surveys, environmental surveys, analyses of
  secondary source data and econometric analysis.
• The retrospective assessment of the processes
  that increase or decrease PCD can be informed by
  case studies in OECD countries case studies in
  developing countries comparative studies and
  peer reviews.
• The identification of coherent, incoherent,
  conflicting and reinforcing effects can be
  informed by case studies in developing countries
  and multi-sectoral research.

7
continued

• Composite assessment and evaluation methods
  that are occasionally applicable,
• These include Environmental Impact Assessment
  Strategic Environmental Assessment Poverty
  Impact Assessment Aid for trade accountability
  tool and Trade Sustainability Impact
  Assessments.
• The European Commission approach to the Impact
  Assessment of its main policy, financial and
  legislative proposals is also useful to the
  evaluation of PCD.

8
A general framework for assessing PCD

• Relevant success criteria progress in developing
  countries
• Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
• Capitals approach.
• Convergence
• Progress with respect to global public goods

9
continued

• Relevant success criteria application of
  processes in OECD member states
• The three phase PCD cycle that provides a
  potential basis for assessing the application of
  PCD processes in member states.
• The definition of PCD and hence the levels that
  derive from the OECDs horizontal programme on
  policy coherence

10
continued

• Evaluation methods and conditions to improve the
  application of PCD
• explicit consideration of the repercussions of
  sectoral policy choices on developing countries
  at the time policies are being developed/ revised
  (and this being a requirement)
• the sharing of results of such assessments
  through peer reviews
• consultations being required between policy
  makers at sectoral level and those responsible
  for development aid
• multilateral negotiations anticipating explicitly
  the effects of policy choices on MDGs and,
• developing countries generating evidence on the
  foreseen and unforeseen consequences of sectoral
  policy choices.

11
continued

• Evaluation methods and conditions to assess the
  progress of PCD
• a requirement to retrospectively examine key
  sectoral policies and their effects on
  development goals
• arrangements for oversight at country level of
  the interactions between sectoral policies
  insofar as they affect development goals
• a programme of evaluation work at multilateral
  level focused on the most pressing instances of
  policy incoherence.

12
Measuring the progress of PCD in Agriculture

• Short- and medium-term effects are reasonably
  easy to anticipate and measure, subject to
  uncertainties in climatic conditions (droughts,
  floods etc) and crop failures, as data on food
  exports and prices and associated employment and
  income are good.
• Long-term consequences of policy instruments are
  more difficult to anticipate because of
  vulnerabilities to climate change and possible
  changes in diet, demand, environmental conditions
  and transport costs. These factors may be
  strongly influenced by policies in OECD member
  states.

13
Measuring the progress of PCD in Migration

• Econometric models have the potential to help
  anticipate the impact of policies on coherence.
  But methods for predicting migration flows and
  the consequences of policy changes are imprecise
  and there is a problem of poor data on migration
  flows, actual remittances, and the numbers of
  illegal migrants.
• The effects of policies on different types of
  countries should be distinguished depending upon
  historic and geographical links and differentials
  in levels of GDP per capita.

14
Recommendations

• Research on key linkages
• Comparisons between PCD in OECD Member States via
  checklists and clusters of peer reviews
• Emphasis ex ante evaluation where policy options
  exist as part of policy formulation

15
Discussion