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Our Changing Climate: What Next

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Second day in Ann Arbor a university wide summit on climate change ... Biofuel and Hybrid Buses in Ann Arbor: A Consideration of the Cost of Climate Change ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Our Changing Climate: What Next


1
Our Changing Climate What Next?
  • Richard B. Rood
  • University of Michigan
  • College of Engineering
  • Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences
  • rbrood_at_umich.edu
  • http//aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

2
Talk Outline
  • Coming from NASA to Michigan
  • A new course Climate Change The Move to Action
  • Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
    Solving
  • Openclimate.org

3
Coming from NASA to Michigan
  • Coming from NASA to Michigan
  • A new course Climate Change The Move to Action
  • Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
    Solving
  • Openclimate.org

4
My NASA Background
  • Complex problems with no known solutions
  • Analyzing Ozone Observations and Ozone Prediction
  • Ozone Hole
  • Manager of Scientists and Software Projects
  • Deliver Prediction and Analysis Models to Support
    NASA Earth Observing System
  • Corporate Strategist
  • Office of Science and Technology Policy
  • Director of High Performance Computing

5
Move to U of Michigan
  • Arrived in September 2005
  • Second day in Ann Arbor a university wide summit
    on climate change
  • In Winter of 2006 I started a graduate course
    called, Climate Change The Intersection of
    Science, Economics, and Policy. This evolved
    into Climate Change The Move to Action a
    course in Problem Solving in Climate Change

6
Where have the students come from?
  • School of Natural Resources and Environment
  • School of Business
  • School of Public Policy
  • Literature, Sciences and Art
  • College of Engineering
  • School of Law
  • School of Public Health

7
Projects
  • Project
  • To provide a knowledge-based analysis of a
    complex problem
  • Purpose of the analysis
  • Inform an agency head, government official, a
    corporate manager so that a decision can be made
  • Set the foundation for a research program, an
    initiative, a business plan

8
Advocacy and knowledge
  • Students become aware of what is knowledge and
    what is advocacy
  • Advocacy separated from what is known
  • If an advocate, be fully aware of that fact

9
Class Website
  • Class Web Site
  • Climate Change The Move to Action
  • Winter 2008 Term
  • 2008 Climate Change Projects
  • Energy, Water, Climate Change, and Economic
    Development of the Navajo Nation
  • Narrative Presentation
  • Exxon and BP An Analysis of Two Companies'
    Approach to Climate Change
  • Narrative Presentation
  • Iron Fertilization in the Ocean Environment and
    Business Opportunity
  • Narrative Presentation
  • Biofuel and Hybrid Buses in Ann Arbor A
    Consideration of the Cost of Climate Change
  • Narrative Presentation
  • Carbon Management Initiative The Integration of
    Carbon Management into the University of Michigan
    Curriculum
  • Narrative Presentation

10
Some things that have happened
AOSS 480 NRE 480
New York Times Eyes and Ears Topics Global
Warming Eyes and Ears
Lecture at the National Center for Atmospheric
Research on Lessons Learned from Teaching Class.
Blog for American Meteorological Society at
Climatepolicy.org
Expert Climate Change Blog for Wunderground.com
11
From Class and Projects ? Openclimate.org
  • Enormous knowledge of climate change exists
    outside of the community of scientists
  • Evolved communities that address problems of
    environmental stress, that will be amplified, not
    caused, by climate change
  • Scientific communitys desire to push climate
    information to other communities was, perhaps,
    uninformed
  • Amazing potential to accelerate addressing
    climate change problems if the existing knowledge
    base was more readily accessible

12
Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • Coming from NASA to Michigan
  • A new course Climate Change The Move to Action
  • Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
    Solving
  • Openclimate.org

13
Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • I have assigned (or allowed) myself five slides
    to talk about the science of climate change.
  • There are many 10s of thousands of research
    papers on climate change and its impact.
  • It is hard (impossible?) to find a neglected
    subject.

14
The Greenhouse Effect
Spencer Wearts The Discovery of Global Warming
SUN
Based on conservation of energy If the Earth
did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature
at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C
( 0 F).
This surface temperature, which is higher than
expected from simple conservation of energy, is
due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere
distributes the energy vertically making the
surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler,
which maintains energy conservation. We are
making the atmosphere thicker.
Earth
This greenhouse effect in not controversial.
15
The motivator Increase of CO2(Keeling et al.,
1996)
2009 390 ppm
1860 280 ppm
Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide
16
Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a
measure of temperature and carbon dioxide
CO2 2100
460 ppm
CO2 2009
390 ppm
350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon
Dioxide (CO2) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores
  • Some References
  • Vostok and CO2
  • Role of Ocean in Reversal
  • During this period, temperature and CO2 are
    closely related to each other

17
Predictions of the 20th Century
How do we test our models? How do we attribute
observed warming to the industry of humans?
  • Some References
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • Fourth Assessment Report

18
Projections for the next 100 years.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fourth Assessment Report
19
Conclusions from the Scientific Investigation of
the Physical Climate
  • The Earth has warmed, and most of that warming is
    due to the enterprise of humans.
  • The Earth will continue to warm.
  • Sea level will rise.
  • The weather will change.

Lets remember the ozone smoking gun. Is there
a smoking gun for climate change? Is there some
impact of climate change that raises urgency and
accelerates action?
1970s Ice Age Stories
Water, Water, Water
The IPCC Process
20
Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • Coming from NASA to Michigan
  • A new course Climate Change The Move to Action
  • Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
    Solving
  • Openclimate.org

21
Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • This is serious. Global warming and changes of
    distribution of water will disrupt societies and
    ecosystems it will, for the most part, increase
    the impact that weather has on society.
  • We have credible predictions of the future we
    have actionable information. This is
    unprecedented opportunity opportunity to
    prepare for the future.
  • Essay on Opportunity and Climate Predictions

22
Climate change impacts all of society
...???...
Security Food Environmental National
Societal Success Standard of Living
ECONOMICS
POLICY
ENERGY
RELIGION
LAW
SOCIAL JUSTICE
BUSINESS
PUBLIC HEALTH
information flow research, journals, press,
opinion,
SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
23
Climate Change Relationships
  • Consumption // Population // Energy

POPULATION
ENERGY
WEALTH
CONSUMPTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
24
Climate change usually considered a long-term
problem
  • If we were to take actions to reduce carbon
    dioxide, then it would be a long time before we
    see benefit, and
  • many assume that climate change is a slow warming
    that will be a long time coming, and
  • that there will be technological solutions to the
    problem.
  • Hence, climate change is viewed by most as long
    term.

25
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
25 years
50 years
75 years
100 years
0 years
26
We arrive at levels of granularity
Need to introduce spatial scales as well
WEALTH
TEMPORAL
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
Small scales inform large scales. Large scales
inform small scales.
27
Energy-Economy-Climate Change
  • Because of the global reach of Energy, Economy,
    and Climate Change, solutions need to be woven
    into the fabric of our behavior.
  • Solutions need to be able to evolve from the
    near-term to the long-term.
  • Solutions need to address both local and global
    attributes of the problem.
  • Solutions are impacted by wealth
  • There is no one solution we need a portfolio of
    solution paths.

Business and Market
28
More lessons learned from class
  • Our focus on discipline-based expertise and
    two-subject interfaces, e.g. climate-policy,
    climate-energy, climate-business, etc., lead to
    polarized arguments and inhibit our ability to
    develop solution paths.
  • The need for trans-disciplinary discourse and
    rationalization of the interfaces between
    disciplines. (communities instead of
    disciplines?) (Thoumi Practicum, Rood and Thoumi
    Article)
  • The uncertainty fallacy
  • There is an existing reservoir of knowledge
    resources that are isolated in their native
    disciplines. The knowledge base is fragmented.
  • If this information could be brought together the
    ability to accelerate problem solving would be
    enhanced.

29
Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
Solving
  • Coming from NASA to Michigan
  • A new course Climate Change The Move to Action
  • Five Slides on Climate Change Science
  • Climate Predictions Offer Opportunity
  • Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
    Solving
  • Openclimate

30
Where are we?
  • We arrive at a situation where there are four
    over arching communities
  • Science
  • Business
  • Government
  • Non-governmental organizations
  • For the most part the elements of the community
    behave rationally within their community.
  • When the communities interact, they can appear
    irrational to each other.
  • With the consideration of the attributes of time,
    space, and wealth, rationality can often be
    defined and lead to solution paths.
  • These are biological not hierarchical
    relationships.

31
A proposal for going forward
  • Open source, open innovation, open communities.
  • What is an open source community?

32
Open Community Approaches to Complex Problem
Solving
  • The Elements of Open Source
  • Open source is a production model that enables
    communities of people with common interests to
    work together productively with minimal
    centralized control. Fundamental elements of an
    open source approach include
  • source (goods, ideas, code) that is accessible
    to everyone
  • openness
  • collaboration and community
  • recognition for contributions
  • transparency
  • democratization of the tools necessary to
    contribute

33
Some successful open source communities
  • Operating system Linux
  • Web browser Mozilla Firefox
  • Open source environment Apache
  • Encyclopedia Wikipedia
  • Citizen journalism website Digg
  • Open Source Initiative

Some open source references
34
Openclimate.org
  • A new approach to climate change problem solving
  • Builds on intellectual resources from all
    communities, allows this community to place a
    pull on the resources built to service the
    community of scientists.
  • Works to remove fragmentation and breakdown the
    stovepipes of discipline-focused communities.
  • Aims to accelerate problem solving through
    inclusivity.

35
Openclimate.org
  • Openclimate.org
  • http//openclimate.org/

oc20090203 Username oc20090203 Password
starting to make it real
36
Is there some time?
  • Lets remember the ozone smoking gun. Is there
    a smoking gun for climate change?
  • Is there some impact of climate change that
    raises urgency and accelerates action?

37
Thank you
38
Ozone Hole
  • Global environmental problem with some
    similarities to global warming.
  • Huge reductions of ozone over Antarctica, and
    significant reductions elsewhere.
  • Some characteristics
  • Strong, near-term human health impact.
  • Smoking gun is observed
  • Replacement refrigerants became available

Return to talk
39
The Uncertainty Fallacy?
  • Scientific investigation produces two things
  • Knowledge
  • Uncertainty about that knowledge

Return to talk
40
Science Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted
Return to talk
41
Science Knowledge and Uncertainty
Knowledge from Predictions
Motivates policy
Uncertainty of the Knowledge that is Predicted
Policy
  • Uncertainty always exists
  • New uncertainties will be revealed
  • Uncertainty can always be used to keep policy
    from converging

Return to talk
What we are doing now is, largely, viewed as
successful. We are reluctant to give up that
which is successful. We are afraid that we will
suffer loss.
42
The Uncertainty Fallacy
  • The uncertainty fallacy is that scientific
    investigation provides a systematic reduction of
    uncertainty of knowledge and that a systematic
    reduction of uncertainty is what is needed to
    motivate the development of policy or, more
    generally, decision making.
  • In addition, scientific uncertainty needs to be
    considered in relationship to other forms of
    uncertainty and needs to map to risk and benefit.

Return to talk
43
Business and Market
  • Business has often been posed as the villain in
    climate change discussions
  • But business is far from uniform in motivations,
    practices, and beliefs
  • Business is core to the economy, core to
    consumption, core to energy use
  • Ultimately business is a core element of the
    solution set it is connective.

Return to talk
44
Elements of environmental pollutant market
F1A
F2A
FiA
COST GAP
FUEL SOURCES
efficiency
F1c
F2c
Fic
SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS
ENERGY PRODUCTION
GDP
.
ABATEMENT
A1
A2
Ai
POLLUTANT
Return to talk
45
Some Resources on Business and Climate Change
  • Readings
  • Hoffman Pew Corporate Strategies 2006
  • McKinsey Global Business Survey 2008
  • Web portals
  • U.S. Climate Action Partnership
  • CAP Call for Action
  • CERES Coalition of Investors, Environmental and
    Public Interest Groups
  • Click Publications Look at 2003 and 2006
    Corporate Governance

Return to talk
46
1970s Ice Age Stories
Why do we think that our predictions today are
more robust than these predictions from the 1970s?
Return to talk
47
Increase of CO2 (Keeling et al., 1996)
This generation has altered the composition of
the atmosphere on a global scale througha steady
increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of
fossil fuels.
--Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965
Return to talk
Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are
Not Wrong
48
Some open source references
  • Raymond The Cathedral and the Bazaar
  • Demil Neither Market nor Heirarchy nor Network
    ...
  • Shah Motivation, Governance and the Viability
    ...
  • Sturmer Open Source Community Building
  • von Krogh Community, Joining and the
    Specialization ...

Return to talk
49
Open source communities
  • Value knowledge and synthesis of knowledge
  • Free access to knowledge is beneficial to
    individuals in the community.
  • Proven effective for organizing complex systems
    and developing elements of solution paths
  • Are governed they are not anarchy
  • Are owned by the community

Return to talk
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