Sustainable Aviation

1
Sustainable Aviation
November 2003
2
Envrionmental Impacts

• Local
• Noise
• Air Quality
• Global
• Climate Change

3
Aviation and the global atmosphere -
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1999
4
IPPC 1999 report on aviation
summary of conclusions

• Aviation accounted for 3.5 of the total
  radiative forcing from mans activities in 1992
• Due to growth in demand for air travel and
  transport, this proportion will rise, despite
  technology and operational improvements
• Estimates for 2050 range from 4 to 15 (5-6 most
  likely)
• The total radiative forcing effects are 2-4 times
  the effect of CO2 from aviation alone
• Contrails and cirrus clouds represent the largest
  uncertainty and risk to global warming
• NOx has a complex effect which is not fully
  understood and may well have regional effects

5
Aviation and the Kyoto Protocol

• International aviation is excluded from the Kyoto
  Protocol
• Emissions from domestic aviation are included
  within national inventories and thus covered by
  the KP
• Responsibility for international aviation
  emissions is delegated to the International Civil
  Aviation Organisation
• ICAO is working on regulatory and economic
  instrument approaches to reducing GHG effects of
  aviation
• Emissions at altitude have different effects to
  those at ground level

6
Rolls-Royce environmental performance achievements

• Over the last 30 years.
• Fuel burn 35 reduction from engines
• Noise 75 reduction
• Weight 30 reduction
• Smell and smoke and many other emissions
  virtually eliminated

7
Environmental performance of UK airline fleet
Major UK based operators of 100 seat
aircraft Based on Rolls-Royce forecasts of
individual airline growth and replacements
8
Aviation and the Kyoto Protocol

• International aviation is excluded from the Kyoto
  Protocol
• Emissions from domestic aviation are included
  within national inventories and thus covered by
  the KP
• Responsibility for international aviation
  emissions is delegated to the International Civil
  Aviation Organisation
• ICAO is working on regulatory and economic
  instrument approaches to reducing GHG effects of
  aviation
• Emissions at altitude have different effects to
  those at ground level

9
Local and global environmental performance
improvement mechanisms

• Local - Noise and air quality
• International and local standards
• Local measures and charges at sensitive airports
• Technology development driven by pressure to beat
  current and future standards to ensure economic
  life of aircraft

• Global -Climate change
• No standards or policy measures
• Massive sustained increases in fuel efficiency
  driven by market forces
• Operating cost, payload and range improved by
  fuel efficiency gains
• Non CO2 climate change emissions are not
  currently controlled

10
External costs of aviation
UK Governments estimate of external costs of
aviation indicate dominance of climate change
Climate change based on estimates of total
radiative forcing, including carbon dioxide. NOx
and contrail effects at 70 per tonne of carbon
equivalent
Estimated external cost (m)
Noise
Local Air Quality
Climate Change
HM Treasury and Department for Transport 2003
11
Public perception of aviation impact

• Aircraft noise
• Congestion around airports
• Local air pollution
• Climate change

This is the reverse order to estimates of
external costs
12
Meeting the 50 fuel burn target needs changes in
all areas
Possible design solutions
13
IPPC 1999 report on aviation
summary of conclusions

• Aviation accounted for 3.5 of the total
  radiative forcing from mans activities in 1992
• Due to growth in demand for air travel and
  transport, this proportion will rise, despite
  technology and operational improvements
• Estimates for 2050 range from 4 to 15 (5-6 most
  likely)
• The total radiative forcing effects are 2-4 times
  the effect of CO2 from aviation alone
• Contrails and cirrus clouds represent the largest
  uncertainty and risk to global warming
• NOx has a complex effect which is not fully
  understood and may well have regional effects

14
Radiative forcing from aircraft in 1992
Level of understanding
Aviation and the global atmosphere -
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1999
15
Climate Change trade-offs
16
Alternative fuels

• Safety, energy density, cost, global availability
  and environmental impact are all critical for
  aviation fuel
• Kerosene very difficult to beat
• Hydrogen is an option for the long term, but
  major logistical, technical and environmental
  issues
• Synthetic kerosene, manufactured from biomass is
  a real possibility, but expensive
• Bio-diesel could be used as a kerosene extender,
  at 10-20 max
• Need to consider whole life cycle and non CO2 GHG
  effects
• Use available sustainable fuels for land based
  applications.

17
Climate Change summary of issues for aviation

• CO2 is not the whole story
• NOx at cruise also has a significant effect
• Effects of contrails and increased cloudiness are
  uncertain and may be very significant
• Overall effect of zero carbon fuel may not be
  significantly better than kerosene (and could be
  worse)
• Best solution may involve burning more fuel
• Some policy instruments could act to increase the
  overall climate change impact

More atmospheric understanding required
18
Conclusions

• The aviation industry is responding to the
  challenge of climate change
• Optimised solutions can be found and implemented
  once the problems are more fully understood
• Trade-offs need to be appreciated by policy
  makers
• An open emissions trading system is the best long
  term solution to dealing with aviation carbon
  emissions
• Policy instruments must act in such a way to
  encourage reduced environmental impact in the
  most cost effective manner
• Aviation can play a vital part in a sustainable
  society, it is a question of balance between
  local and global environmental impact, social
  factors and economic benefits.