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Title: Topics, Tools, and Tasks for Teaching the Future


1
Topics, Tools, and Tasks for Teaching the Future
  • Stephen Steele, Ph.D.sfsteele_at_aacc.edu
  • Kay Strong, Ph.D.kestrong_at_uh.edu

WorldFuture 2009 Innovation Creativity in a
Complex World 18 July _at_ 400-530 PM 17-19 July
2009, Chicago, IL
2
What brings you here?
  • Brief Introduction
  • Steve Steele
  • Kay Strong
  • What brings you to this session?
  • What experience(s)have you had with futures?
  • Do you have plans for teaching the future?

3
Teaching the FutureGame Plan
  • Topics
  • Tasks Tools
  • Resources
  • Other topics you want to add?

4
Intention?
  • Course in which the central focus is the future
  • Survey of the Future
  • Strategic Foresight
  • Course in which the central focus is the future
    of some field or topic
  • The Future of Economics
  • Globalization and Its Future -FTR110
  • Course in which futures inquiry is rolled in
  • Women Studies (with futures inquiry)
  • Introduction to Sociology (Annapolis 2060 project)

5
Topics
  • Two Examples
  • FTR 100 Exploring the Future (AACC)
  • TECH 4397 Strategic Foresight (UH)

6
FTR100 - Exploring the Future (3 CR,
Interdisciplinary, General Education, Diversity )
Investigate the future in a changing world. Using
tools and perspectives across fields of study and
cultures, students expand foresight and build the
future. The course encourages appreciation for
the complexity of our global society and its
diversity.
7
TECH 4397 - Strategic Foresight(3 CR, Honors
College)
  • Strategic Foresight provides an introduction to
    a future-oriented perspective where decisions are
    made based on an analysis of external and
    internal trends and data and identify the
    strategic implications of those decisions. The
    course is designed to help students become more
    proactive and build a sense of positive
    empowerment
  • by approaching the future with an attitude that
    one can develop an ability to perceive possible
    changes and be ready in advance to react to them
  • that ones decisions have future consequences
    both intended and unanticipated and
  • that one can make life-shaping forecasts,
    personally and career-wise, thereby creating the
    best possible future.

8
FTR100 - Exploring the Future (3 CR,
Interdisciplinary, General Education)
  • Basic Topics
  • Visualize the Future
  • Perceive Some Perspectives on  the Future
  • Investigate Multiple Futures Diverse Factors
    that Drive Future Views
  • Examine Driving Forces
  • Deal with Change
  • Recognize Basic Futures Tools
  • Investigate Creativity and Problem-Solving
  • Conceptualize Responsibility for the Future
  • Construct the Future

9
TECH 4397 - Strategic Foresight(3 CR, Honors
College)
  • Basic Topics
  • Module 1 Personal Validation of Futures
  • Module 2 Change-How it Works
  • Module 3 Whats Going on Out There!
  • Module 4 Personal Creativity Values
    Clarification

10
FTR100 - Exploring the Future (3 CR,
Interdisciplinary, General Education)
TEXTBOOKS Cornish, Edward.  2004. Futuring The
Exploration of the Future Loukides, Jill and
Lawrie Gardner. Workbook to Accompany Futuring
The Exploration of the Future Pink, Daniel.
2006. A Whole New Mind Why Right-Brainers Will
Rule the Future, Cetron, Marvin and Davies,
Owen. 2008. 55 Trends Shaping Tomorrow's World,

TECH 4397 - Strategic Foresight(3 CR, Honors
College)
TEXTBOOKS Cornish, Edward.  2004. Futuring The
Exploration of the Future Hughes, Barry B. and
Evan E. Hillenbrand. 2006. Exploring and Shaping
International Futures. Paradigm Publishers
11
TASKS TOOLS
  • Two Examples
  • FTR 100 Exploring the Future (AACC)
  • TECH 4397 Strategic Foresight (UH)

12
FTR100 - Exploring the Future (3 CR, Freshman,
Sophomore Level, Interdisciplinary, General
Education)
13
Some Selected Tasks
  • Sign up for the monthly Futureportal - IF _at_ AACC
    monthly newsletter. https//www.aacc.edu/future/f
    orm/interested.cfm
  • Peer-to-Peer building a future. Exploring areas
    with others, creating new realities using the
    principles of wikinomics
  • Whole Brain Thinking
  • Take a Weekly Dip in the Synthesis "Pool!" (10
    posts, throughout the course at least one per
    week. 5 points for the post, 5 points for a
    response to a colleague)
  • Personal Future
  • Societal Future
  • Create a "Futures' Something" Assignment (Your
    final exam)

14
Two Examples
  • Synthesis pool
  • Personal future

See Verne Wheelwrights free individual futures
workbookhttp//www.aacc.edu/future/vernewheelwri
ft.cfm
15
TECH 4397 - Strategic Foresight(3 CR, Honors
College)
16
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17
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18
  • Module One Personal Validation
  • Goals
  • A.  Skills
  • 1.       Habits of Highly Effective People
  • a.       Value Differences and Diversity
  • b.       Seek First to Understand, Then to Be
    Understood
  • c.        Begin with the End in Mind. From
    Stephen Covey, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective
    People. Powerful Lessons in
    Personal Change
    http//www.leaderu.com/cl-institute/habits/habtoc.
    html
  • 2.       Participating in a Learning Community
    http//www.sedl.org/change/issues/issues61.html
    (LEARING CONTRACT)
  • B. Knowledge
  • 1.       Differentiate between a fatalistic and
    a futuristic view of the future.
  • 2.       Differentiate between the possibilities
    of predicting versus anticipating future events. 
  • 3.       Trace the development of the concept of
    futuring from antiquity to the present.
  • C. Attitudes
  • 1.       Agree that foresight is a useful skill
    for oneself
  • 2.       Adopt a futuristic rather than a
    fatalistic view of the future

19
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20
  • Module Two Change-How it Works
  • Goals
  • A.  Skills
  • 1.   Identifying Types of Change
  • 2.   Describing the World in Systems Terms
  • 3.   Explaining change using various theories
  • B. Knowledge
  • 1.   Types of change
  • a.   Sources Inbound/Outbound
  • b.   Rates Continuous/Discontin
    uous (events/disruptions)
  • c.    Horizons
    Short-term/Long-term
  • d.    Levels
    Entity/Immediate/Global 
  • 2.   Eras and punctuated equilibrium
  • 3.   Types of futures  Possible, Plausible,
    Expected, Preferred (Venn Diagram)
  • 4.   The role of each of the following in
    shaping the future.
  • a.    Stability, inertia, momentum
    things continuing as they have been
  • b.    Chance, randomness,
    wildcards -- trivial details, chance events,
    negligible differences can have enormous
    consequences
  • c.     Choice -- thinking consciously,
    creatively, and realistically about a wider range
    of possibilities

21
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22
  • Module Three Whats goin on out there!
  • Goals
  • A.  Skills
  • 1.  Secondary Research
  • 2.  Triple Venn (Overlap Analysis)
  • 3.  Cross Impact (Interaction Analysis
  • 4.  Futures Wheel (Implications Analysis) 
  • B.  Knowledge
  • 1.   STEEP categories
  • 2.   Major Trends and Issues in the World
    Nation
  • C. Attitudes
  • 1.  Global Perspective
  • 2.  Causality Matters
  • 3.   Issues exhibit Complexity and Uncertainty 

23
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24
  • Module Four Personal Creativity Value
    Clarification
  • Goals
  • A.     Skills
  • 1.  Demonstrating creativity
  • 2.  Clarifying values
  • 3.  Constructing Visions
  • B.     Knowledge
  • 1.   Creativity
  • 2.   Values
  • 3.   Sphere of Influence
  • 4.   Preferred future, Success, Visions
  • C.     Attitudes
  • 1.    Being open to creativity
  • 2.    Accepting that different people and groups
    have different values

25
Resources
  • Texts and possible texts
  • Software
  • Books
  • Exercises
  • Course outlines
  • Handy web links
  • http//www.aacc.edu/future/----Screen shots of
    Resources?
  • http//tech.uh.edu/Programs/Futures_Studies/
  • http//www.wfs.org/
  • IF _at_ AACC training, newsletter, speaking?

26
Other useful possible texts or Ancillary
Reading
  • Canton , James The Extreme Future New York
    Dutton, 2006.
  • Garland, Eric. Future, Inc. New York AMACOM,
    2007
  • Gardner, Howard. Five Minds for the Future.
    Harvard Business Press, 2007.
  • Heimstra, Glen. Turning the Future into Revenue
    What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know
    to Shape Their Futures. Hoboken, New Jersey
    John Wiley, 2006.
  • Pink, Daniel. A Whole New Mind Why
    Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future, Berkley
    Publishing, 2006.

27
Software Futures Wheel/ Mind Mapping Open
Mind 2 Software http//www.matchware.com/en/
Why the future is important
From the Future An Owners Manual. World Future
Society http//www.wfs.org/ownermanual.htm
Slide from SF Steele presentations on the future
IF _at_ AACC 2007
28
Software SPSS Excel
SPSS Snapshot of a Delphi Survey 2017
Excel Global Marketed Energy Use 1985 -2030
1985
2030
29
Books?
  • Best Recent Books and ReportsSelections from
    Future Survey for Leaders Readers
  • Compiled by Michael Marien, editor of Future
    Survey http//www.wfs.org/fsbest06.htm
  • IF _at_ AACC core futures book list - table of
    contents http//www.aacc.edu/future/corebookstoc
    .cfm

30
Staying on top
  • Subscribe
  • Futurist UPDATE http//www.wfs.org/Futuristupda
    tearchive/futuristupdatearchive.htm
  • Shaping Tomorrow Newsletter http//www.shapingt
    omorrow.com/newsletter.cfm
  • Read
  • new e-zine Cyborgs/Transhumanist in Humanity
    http//www.hplusmagazine.com/
  • Wired Magazine http//www.wired.com/
  • Yes! Magazine http//www.yesmagazine.org/
  • Watch a YouTube Video of futures instruction in
    action http//www.youtube.com/watch?veycMk32qmNI
  • Scan futures forecasts
  • Global Trends 2025 http//www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_202
    5/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
  • Browse
  • The State of the World http//www.worldwatch.org/
  • The State of the Future http//www.millennium-pro
    ject.org/millennium/sof2008.html

31
Exercises
  • SYSTEMS Draw a systems diagram of part of your
    organization or business. Identify the inputs,
    processes and outputs. Identify the external
    forces, and the boundaries. Identify feedback
    loops. (J. Sagi)
  • INTERVIEW-OLDERInterview someone in a previous
    generation (someone older than you by 20 years),
    whom you admire. Determine their outlook on the
    future. Identify 5 of the biggest surprises that
    they think have occurred in the world why these
    are surprises, and what affects they have had.
    (J. Sagi)
  • INTERVIEW-YOUNGERInterview someone in a later
    generation (someone younger than you by 5-10
    years). Determine their outlook on the future.
    Ask them specifically about future education,
    transportation, healthcare, the environment, and
    any other issues important to you. How does this
    interview compare to the previous interview? Be
    specific. (J. Sagi)
  • Visualize the Future
  • Overview
  • In this discussion posting lets start
    thinking like a futurist
  • Please, post the following
  • 1) Add five years to today. Write a brief
    paragraph about a few things that might be
    happening that day.
  • 2) Add ten years to today. Write the top news
    story for that day (assuming that there will be
    news!).
  • 3) Now, reflecting on the material in this module
    list the top 5-6 things that you learned.
  • 4) After youve posted, respond to another
    learners posting. Your goal is to add value to
    our colleague in learnings work.
  • 5) You may want to print your posts for 1 - 4 and
    keep them in your notebook. ( S. Steele)

32
Exercise
  • Futures Wheel
  •  
  • Objective Explore the 1st, 2nd and 3rd order
    implications of a change in a trend, an event,
    forecast (dated), issue, decision or wildcard in
    your domain of interest
  •  
  • Process
  •  
  • The center of the futures wheel must be specific.
    If the center is too vague, the consequences
    will also be vague.
  • Assumptions influence the futures wheel. Use
    both positive and negative assumptions when
    brainstorming implications.
  • Right or wrong has no role to play imagination
    is the key to success.

33
Exercise
  • Triple Venn Diagram
  • Objective Identify the interaction of three
    elements.
  • Process
  • Select an element such as trend, event, forecast
    (dated), issue, decision or wildcard from the
    STEEP categories in your domain for each region
    AA, BB CC.
  • Identify at least two (2) potential outcomes and
    (2) effects that could emerge in the overlap
    regions.
  • Consider the implications. Just as older people
    today (like your teachers!) grew up with and take
    radio and television as a normal part of the
    world, while younger people (like you!) grew up
    with and take cell phones and the Internet as a
    normal part of the world, what will your children
    or grandchildren grow up with that we today would
    find amazing? Explain your selections and what
    effect it will have on their lives.

34
Exercise
  • High / Low Impact Probability Matrix
  • Objective
  • Create imaginative stories about in the future
    based on the interaction of different elements
    differentiated by Impact and Probability.
  • Impact degree of disruption an outcome
    might create.
  • Probability likelihood the
    outcome will occur
  • Process Produce 4 Alternative Futures.
  • Choose two (2) elements such as a trend, event,
    forecast (dated), issue, decision or wildcard
    from the STEEP categories in your domain of
    interest.
  • Identify each axis with one element. Each
    quadrant represents the outcome of the two
    elements interacting. Jot down the possible
    implications of those interacting elements in the
    appropriate quadrant.
  • Now, lets write with a little imagination?
  • Create a simple, clear, well-founded 100-word
    Vignette for each of the four (4) quadrants.
    Give each Vignette a Title. Try to show what is
    normal for a person living in 2020. Consider
    also that people in the future may not think like
    you!! Put yourself in their shoes.

35
Course outlines
http//www.aacc.edu/future/creditcourses.cfm
http//www.aacc.edu/future/coresyllabus.cfm More
detail? http//ola4.aacc.edu/soc/COREFUTURESSYLLAB
US/
36
Handy web links
  • Has anyone else created college level classroom
    futures exercises that I can use? (great list of
    exercises) http//ola4.aacc.edu/soc/TeachingFutur
    e/futuresexercisesIFaacc.htm
  • I'd like to create a futures exercise for my
    class. How can I do this? http//www.aacc.edu/fut
    ure/futuresexercise.cfm
  • I'd  like a brief future's article to stimulate
    thought and drive critical thinking in my
    classes. Where can I find one? http//www.aacc.edu
    /future/qandaarchives.cfm
  • How can I find a list of books on the future?
    http//www.aacc.edu/future/corebookstoc.cfm
  • I'd like to include a video on the future in one
    of my courses. Do we have any?  How can I get
    one?
  • How can I do this "stuff " in class?  Are there
    any tools? http//www.aacc.edu/future/tools.cfm
  • Ask students to read the  first chapter of  the
    key text Futuring by Ed Cornish, "Welcome to the
    Future" a good assignment for students and free
    of charge (a PDF reader is necessary like Adobe
    Acrobat) http//www.aacc.edu/future/file/Futuring
    20chap201.pdf
  • Do you need a set of Power Point Slides to use in
    support of this chapter?  Get the PDF version of
    the slides here. http//www.aacc.edu/future/file/
    futuringchapter1designdraft2_101005.pdf
  • The Futurist is available through Gale
    Publications, probably on a college library
    online system

37
Shameless Advertising IF _at_ AACC
www.aacc.edu/future
38
Create a Student Futures/Foresight Club
  • Join or Create a FIG!https//www.aacc.edu/future/
    form/interested.cfm
  • Futures Interest Grouphttp//www.aacc.edu/future/
    fig.cfm

39
Questions?
40
_______ ___ _______ ____ ____ ____ __
  • Stephen Steele, Ph.D.sfsteele_at_aacc.edu
  • Kay Strong, Ph.D.kestrong_at_uh.edu

41
FTR100 - Exploring the Future (3 CR,
Interdisciplinary, General Education)
  • Stephen Steele, Ph.D.
  • sfsteele_at_aacc.edu

42
TECH 4397 - Strategic Foresight(3 CR, Honors
College)
Kay Strong, Ph.D. kestrong_at_uh.edu
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