Reasonable Progress: Chiricahua NM

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Reasonable ProgressChiricahua NM Wilderness
Area

• Implementation Workgroup Meeting
• San Diego, California
• April 17 19, 2007

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Chiricahua NM Wilderness Area

• Overview of Chiricahua NM WA
• Monitoring/Baseline Conditions
• Annual Average
• 20 Worst Visibility Days
• Emissions Source Apportionment
• Sources
• Species
• Reasonable Progress/Modeling
• Model Performance
• Modeling Results
• Visibility Projections
• Summary

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Arizona Class One Areas
Source http//www.epa.gov/region09/air/maps/az_c
lss1.html
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Chiricahua NM Wilderness Area
2km Terrain Map
20km Terrain Map
The Chiricahua Wilderness is located south of the
Chiricahua National Monument. The IMRPOVE
monitor is located west of the National Monument.
Source WRAP Causes of Haze Website
(http//coha.dri.edu)
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Glide Slope Annual Average (in dv)
Baseline Conditions 8.75 dv Natural Conditions
4.0 dv
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Annual Light Extinction
Results show particle extinction. The baseline
extinction is 15.44 Mm -1.
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Glide Slope for 20 Worst Days (in dv)
Baseline 13.43 dv Natural Conditions 7.2 dv
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Baseline Extinction Budget
Visibility impairment on worst days is mostly
attributed to sulfates, coarse mass, fine soil,
and organic carbon.
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Baseline Species Time Series
This shows extinction for all species for each
year of the baseline period.
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Baseline Worst 20 Light Extinction
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Average 20 Worst Day Composition(baseline 00
04)
Light Extinction (Mm -1)
Source Chart made from spreadsheet posted
at WRAP Technical Support System gtgt Resources gtgt
Monitoring gtgt Composition
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Average 20 Best Day Composition (baseline 00
04)
Light Extinction (Mm -1)
Source Chart made from spreadsheet posted
at WRAP Technical Support System gtgt Resources gtgt
Monitoring gtgt Composition
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Species Glide Slope Worst 20
This shows the baseline and glide slope by
species.
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Species Trends and URP Glide Slope (Worst Days)
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Emissions Source Apportionment
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Upwind Residence Time on 20 Worst Visibility
Days (2000-04)
Highest values are located in southern Arizona,
west Sonora, Baja California Norte, and north
Chihuahua.
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Sources Located Near Chiricahua

• Point Sources
• Douglas Power Plant Douglas, AZ
• Apache Station (AEPCO) Wilcox, AZ
• Apache Nitrogen St. David, AZ
• Chemical Lime Paul Spur, AZ
• Area Sources
• Vehicle Emissions highways, unpaved roads,
  recreational areas
• Other Sources
• Naco Dump 40 miles south of wilderness area near
  Naco, Mexico

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Source Apportionment for Sulfate (SO4)
The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the
right column shows 2018 (base18b) for each state
and region.
PSAT results indicate that sources in Arizona,
Mexico, CENRAP, EUS, and pacific off-shore are
the largest contributors.
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Weighted Emissions Potential SO4
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Weighted Emissions Potential SO4
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Arizona SOx Emissions
Source Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation
on 1/22/07, L. Alter
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Source Apportionment for Nitrate (NO3)
The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the
right column shows 2018 (base 18b) for each state
and region.
The largest contributors of nitrate are Arizona
and California. Sources from CENRAP, Mexico, New
Mexico, and pacific off-shore are also likely to
contribute to nitrate.
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Weighted Emissions Potential NO3
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Weighted Emissions Potential NO3
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Arizona NOx Emissions
Source Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation
on 1/22/07, L. Alter
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Weighted Emissions Potential Organic Carbon
(OMC)
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Weighted Emissions Potential OMC
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Arizona OC Emissions
Source Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation
on 1/22/07, L. Alter
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Weighted Emissions Potential Elemental Carbon
(EC)
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Weighted Emissions Potential - EC
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Weighted Emissions Potential Fine Soil (Soil)
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Weighted Emissions Potential - Soil
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Weighted Emissions Potential Coarse Particulate
Matter (CM)
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Weighted Emissions Potential CM
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Modeling
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Model Performance
The left points are modeled data and the right
points are from IMPROVE.
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Visibility Modeling Results
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Visibility Projections NO3
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and
projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections SO4
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and
projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections - OMC
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and
projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections - EC
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and
projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections CM
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and
projected 2018 light extinction.
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Visibility Projections Soil
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and
projected 2018 light extinction.
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Summary

• Largest Contributors to Visibility Impairment in
  Chiricahua
• Sulfates
• Coarse Mass, Fine Soil
• Organic Carbon

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Continuing Progress

• Continuing Analysis of Chiricahua
• Additional WRAP Products (e.g. CoDust)
• Local Emission Inventories (e.g. Douglas/Agua
  Prieta)
• Nonattainment/Maintenance Area Plans
• Local analysis (FLM, Tribal)
• Impact from BART and other non-BART
• Microscale Modeling????