Indonesian Elections

1
Indonesian Elections

• Dr Greg Fealy
• ANU

2
Parties and Platforms

• 38 parties contesting legislative election
• Categorising them is difficult
• Often classified according to religion or
  ideology (eg, nationalist, Christian, Islamic)
  but boundaries between these categories are
  blurred
• Growing centrism in Indonesian politics resulting
  in part from increasing use of polling and
  national media
• Lots of parties blend religious and ideological
  messages
• Many parties are largely personal vehicles for
  wealth and powerful politicians

3
Nationalist Parties

• PD (Democrat Party) was created as electoral
  vehicle for SBY
• Chaired by son-in-law and SBYs wife dominant
  figure
• Many members drawn from military and bureaucratic
  backgrounds
• 7 of vote in 2004
• Recent polls have PD as high as mid-20
• No real ideological coherence to party

4
Nationalist Parties

• PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle)
• Megawati is chair and presidential nominee
• 19 in 2004 34 in 1999
• Main opposition party since 2004 and prospered in
  polls because of that
• Polls range from about 15-25
• Mega both plus and minus

5
Nationalist Parties

• Golkar
• Former regime party of Soeharto but remade itself
  since 1998
• Led by vice-president Yusuf Kalla
• 22 of vote in 1999 and 2004
• Most experienced and hard-headed party machine in
  Indonesia
• Polling suggests b/w 15-23 of vote

6
Nationalist Parties

• Hanura party of ex-General Wiranto
• Gerindra party of former General and Soeharto
  son-in-law Prabowo Subianto
• Both parties draw heavily on leaders former army
  networks and are lavishly funded
• Prabowo set new standards for political
  advertising on TV
• Both parties have good chance of clearing
  threshold but probably below 5

7
Islamic Parties

• Two types pluralist and Islamist
• Pluralist Islamic parties rely on support of
  mainstream Islamic organisations and use Islamic
  symbols but do not promote sharia agendas
• Formal ideological basis is Pancasila, not Islam
• Islamist parties have more ideological Islamic
  agenda, including support for sharia
  implementation
• Often more exclusivist in orientation

8
Pluralist Islamic parties

• PKB (National Awakening Party) founded by
  Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) and based on
  Nahdlatul Ulama community
• 12 of vote in 1999 11 in 2004
• Constant leadership ructions Gus Dur now
  estranged from party
• Will continue to be a major party

9
Pluralist Islamic Parties

• PAN (National Mandate Party) founded by Amien
  Rais and based on Muhammadiyah community
• 7 of vote in 1999 6 in 2004
• Now led by ineffectual Soetrisno Bachir
• Plummeting support despite massive funding by
  Bachir

10
Islamist Parties

• PPP (United Development Party) based on both NU
  and Muhammadiyah communities
• Currently led by Cooperatives Minister
  Suryadharma Ali
• 11 in 1999 8 in 2004
• Demoralised party with lacklustre leadership
  falling support
• PBB (Crescent Star Party) led by Forestry
  Minister MS Kaban
• About 2 in previous elections but party in
  decline

11
Islamist Parties

• PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) is most
  interesting of Islamist parties
• Muslim Brotherhood inspired and only genuine
  cadre party in Indonesia
• 1 of vote in 1999 7 in 2004
• Best organised of Islamic parties and aiming at
  15-20 in 2009
• Likely to gain above 10

12
Grim Islamic Party Prospects

• Nearly all respected public opinion surveys over
  last two years have suggested declining support
  for Islamic parties
• PKB 4-7
• PPP 3-5
• PAN 3-5
• PKS 4-8
• PBB 1-2
• Three factors low public support for formal
  sharia-isation (below 22) internal ructions
  poor leadership

13
Dynasties?
14
Presidential Elections

• Importance of the 20-25 thresholds for
  nominating candidates
• Limits tickets to 2 or 3
• Possibility of only one pair of candidates
• All parties waiting for legislative election
  results before finalising tickets
• Highly fluid situation few parties willing to
  commit themselves at this stage

15
SBY

• SBY is clear front-runner
• Approval ratings above 50 and some polls have
  him with double the support of his nearest
  challenger
• Seen as safe, steady, clean and decent, if a
  little boring and indecisive
• Reasonable economic results and success of
  anti-poverty schemes have been key to his
  continuing popularity
• Running mate still undecided

16
Megawati

• In mid-2008, several polls had Mega in front of
  SBY but has now fallen well behind again
• Has good political strategists but she
  continually fluffs attempts to remake her image
• Poor campaigner often berates voters for not
  electing her in 2004
• Not a good coalition builder
• Has courted Sultan of Yogyakarta as possible
  running mate