USDPRK NEXT STEPS WORKSHOP January 27, 2003 Washington DC

1
US-DPRK NEXT STEPS WORKSHOP January 27, 2003
Washington DC

• Dismantlement and Cessation of DPRK Nuclear
  Capacities
• Living with Uncertainty
•  
• Elwood Gift
• Senior Engineer, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
  Dept. of Energy, January 27, 2003.

2
LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY

• After we have a North Korean Declaration on their
  uranium enrichment program

3
Should we be content?

• What does the Declaration consist of?
• Enrichment facilities only?
• Mining, conversion, and uranium storage
  facilities included?
• Centrifuge and component facilities included?
• Nuclear material produced?
• Do we have access?
• Inventory in Declaration?
• Can its completeness be verified?
• Production records?
• Records of imports and their disposition?

4
Can the Declaration be confirmed?

• What are the inspectors rights of access?
• How often?
• With or without prior notice?
• How many persons?
• How intrusive can they be?
• Sampling and analysis rights?
• Is the Declaration complete enough for meaningful
  production analysis?

5
What are the goals?

• A nuclear weapons free North Korea?
• A nuclear (uranium) production free North Korea?
• Probably not a nuclear free North Korea?
• Is facility dismantlement a goal?
• How much confidence do we need?

6
Can we find an undeclared gas centrifuge
enrichment facility?

• What is its production capacity?
• Possibly 25 kg HEU/year
• What are the observables?
• Power requirement lt 200 Kw
• Natural uranium requirement About 5500
  KgU/year, about 4 30B UF6 cylinders per year
• Size of building lt a Safeway grocery store
• Is it underground? Probably
• Emissions Virtually none