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Features and challenges within National Energy Systems: Indian experience

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... production at about 400 MT per year. Total exhaustible reserves last less than 50 yrs. Crude oil (reserves 786 MT): production stagnant- plateau at 33 MT per year ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Features and challenges within National Energy Systems: Indian experience


1
Features and challenges within National Energy
Systems Indian experience
  • By
  • S K Sarkar, Ph.D.
  • TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute)
  • October 24-25, 2006
  • Centre for Science, Technology and Public Policy,
    Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota, USA

2
Energy scenario in India Fact (1)
  • Population estimated 1114 millions (06-07)
  • Per capita consumption of primary energy 439
    kgoe 2003
  • Power production capacity 160,000 MW
  • Renewables account for about 32 of primary
    energy consumption (03-04)

3
Energy scenario in India Fact (2)
  • Sustained 8-9 GDP growth requires increased
    growth of energy requirements estimated at 1250
    kgoe per capita during 2031-32
  • 84 million households unelectrified (2000) 57
    of rural hh and 12 of urban hh. With
    electrified households, power shortage and poor
    quality power
  • GHG emissions less than 3 of global average
    (1994) per capita is 23 of global average, 4
    of US

4
Energy resources
  • Coal production at about 400 MT per year. Total
    exhaustible reserves last less than 50 yrs.
  • Crude oil (reserves 786 MT) production stagnant-
    plateau at 33 MT per year
  • Natural gas production at 32 BCM per year
    against reserves of 1100 BCM. Import dependency
    (23)
  • Nuclear available uranium fuel only for 10,000
    MW substantial thorium reserves
  • Renewable energy resources hydro (potential
    84,000 MW at 60 LF) wind (potential 45000MW),
    biomass, solar
  • Source GOI 2006

5
Sectoral energy consumption (2003/04)
  • Out of 218 mtoe of commercial energy consumption
  • Industry ( 40)
  • Transport (17)
  • Residential (13)
  • Commercial (9)
  • Agricultural (8)
  • Source TERI (2006)

6
Costs of power production using different
technologies
7
Energy system transmission
  • Coal inter-modal split of coal movement
    Railways 53, road 21 (2004/05)
  • Oil and gas 3971 km of crude oil pipelines
    (2005), network owned by government, regulator
    being appointed by government
  • Electricity mostly public owned, huge
    transmission and distribution network high TD
    losses

8
What is the probable energy picture in 2031
9
TERI study shows that 1
  • In the BAU scenario, Total Primary Energy
    Requirements increase by 7.5 times from 285 mtoe
    in 2001 to 2123 mtoe in 2031
  • Import dependency of all fossil fuels increases
    significantly by 2031
  • Coal remains dominant fuel accounting for 50 of
    total fuel mix, followed by oil contributing to
    about 35-40 of commercial energy supply over
    2001-31
  • Source TERI

10
TERI study shows that 2
  • IGCC plants are the preferred choice over ultra
    super critical, CCGT, and compete with high
    efficiency H Frame CCGT plants
  • Efficiency improvements can play a significant
    role
  • Coal and oil imports decrease in alternative
    scenario due to clean coal technologies for power
    generation and efficiency improvements
  • Decline in energy intensity
  • Cumulative CO2 even lower to the extent of 29
    in alternative scenario over BAU scenario
  • Source TERI

11
Lessons learned from other countries in energy
sector 1
  • Technology
  • Open energy sector and allow competition with
    enabling regulatory framework
  • Sectoral reform models
  • Inclusive growth of energy sector targeted
    approach

12
Lessons learned from other countries power
sector 2
  • Technology
  • Opening the sector
  • Competition, market
  • Restructuring the sector
  • Independent regulatory framework

13
Energy sector concerns and challenges
  • Access to clean, and affordable energy to all
  • Reduce dependency on imports
  • Minimize energy needs
  • No path breaking solutions in sight over next
    couple of decades
  • Major role of coal examine options for
    efficient utilization
  • Renewables role limited but critical for rural
    access
  • GHG emissions vs local actions impacting on
    environment

14
Reducing GHG emissions would require
  • Energy efficiency in all sectors
  • Emphasis on mass transport
  • Active policy on renewable energy including
    biofuels
  • Accelerated development of nuclear/hydro
    electricity
  • Focused RD on many climate friendly technologies

15
Next steps..
  • Integrated policy approach
  • Move towards advanced power generation
    technologies
  • Energy efficiency at end use sectors
  • Diversify supply options
  • Accelerate sector reforms
  • Enhancing regulatory oversight and enabling
    environment for competitive efficiency

16
Thank you
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