... Using Oil for Cars and Trucks. Produce Enough ... H2 an

1
Independence fromForeign Oil
2
Background

• WSJ Letter April 19, 2005
• Let's Get Serious About Alternatives to Oil
• Robert C. McFarlane R. James Woolsey Frank J.
  Gaffney, Jr. C. Boyden Gray Timothy E. Wirth

3
Why Oil Independence?

• Only One Reason
• Uncouple U.S. From Foreign Oil!
• End Need to Protect Foreign Oil Fields and
  Shipping Lanes e.g., Sts of Hormuz.
• End Reliance on Foreign Shipping.
• Minimize Conflict With China and India.

4
Why Oil Independence?

• Not
• Because World Is Running Out Of Oil.
• USGS Says Ample Oil In World.
• Tar Sands Also Available.
• To Get Lower Prices.
• Oil Price Will Be Set Globally.
• But Can Lower Price Pressure.

5
Current Status

• U.S. Uses 19.7 mb/d
• U.S. Imports 10.4 mb/d
• U.S. Cars Trucks Use 10.1 mb/d
• U.S. Industry Uses 6.3 mb/d
• Balance for Aviation, Ships, Military
• mb/d million barrels per day
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

6
Strategy

• Eliminate Using Oil for Cars and Trucks.
• Produce Enough Oil Domestically For
• Industry
• Air Transport
• Military
• Ships
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

7
Strategy Elements

• Shift To Hydrogen for Vehicles
• Start With Internal Combustion Engine
• Promote Next Generation of Nuclear
• To Produce H2 ThermoChemical or Electrolysis
• Develop Domestic Oil, e.g. ANWR
• Ensure Oil For Industry etc.
• Push Cellulosic Ethanol Production
• For Transition-Then Market Forces Dictate

Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
www.tsaugust.org
8
Strategy Elements Cont.

• Accelerate Fuel Cell Development
• Market Forces Decide ICE or FC
• Fischer-Tropsch Coal to Liquid
• Diesel Fuel for Trucks
• But
• Also Consider Hybrid Plug-In Vehicles
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

9
Urgency Required

• Large Overhang of Standard Gas and Hybrids,
  Delays Impact of H2 or Hybrid Plug-In Vehicles.
• Small Impact On Oil Imports in 2025
• 50 years Before Achieving Objective if Start in
  2007 with H2 or Hybrid Plug-Ins
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

10
H2 Hybrid Plug-In Vehicles

• Starting With 7,000 H2 Vehicles in 2007 With
  30 Annual Growth
• 3.3 million H2 Vehicles by 2025
• H2 and Ethanol Power All Cars by 2050
• Trucks Need F-T or Bio Diesel
• Oil Imports Stop Around 2050
• Ditto for Hybrid Plug-In Alternative
• But Uses More Fuel in 2050
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

11
H2 Technology Available Now

• ICE Cars Made by Ford and BMW
• Fueling Stations Using Electrolysis Trucked-In
  Hydrogen, in Operation
• Hydrogen Produced Using Electrolysis and
  Reforming, Proven Technologies
• Market will Decide
• Best Method For Producing Hydrogen
• Best Method For Distributing Hydrogen
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

12
Hybrid Plug-Ins Experimental

• Added Lithium-ion Battery to Prius
• Uses Battery For up to 60 miles Then Shifts to
  Gasoline.
• Estimate up to 150 mpg
• Mileage Depends on Typical Person Driving Fewer
  Than 60 miles in a Day
• Uncertain Effect of Slow, Heavy Traffic, Air
  Conditioning etc.
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

13
H2 vs Hybrid Plug-In
Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
www.tsaugust.org
14
Alternatives That Will Not Work

• Electric Vehicles
• Batteries Lack Range
• 30,000 Cost for Battery
• Renewable Energy (Except Cellulosic)
• Wind etc. Generate Electricity
• Only 2 of Electricity Generated By Oil
• Require Too Much Area To Produce H2
• Intermittent Generation, With Wind
• Conservation
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

15
Alternatives That Will Not Work

• Canadian Tar Sands
• Cost to Produce Ok At 18/barrel
• Requires Huge Investment
• OPEC Can Cut Price, Destroy ROI
• CAFE Reduces, Not Eliminates Need
• If 100 New Cars Had 2x Current Mpg
• In 2025 Cars Would Use 4.6 mb/d
• After 2025 Oil Usage Would Increase
• Note From Report issued by TSAugust A strategy
  for Achieving Independence from Foreign Oil
  www.tsaugust.org

16
Obstacles

• H2 Chicken Egg
• Fueling Stations Need Vehicles
• Vehicles Need Fueling Stations
• High Cost Lithium-ion Batteries
• Getting Vehicles Built

17
Other Issues

• Hybrid Plug-In Viability
• Hydrogen Safety
• Alternative Fuels