Desertification in the Mediterranean Region: A Security Issue

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Sergio Tirado Herrero Department of Economic
Theory and Economic History. Faculty of Economics
and Management. University of Alcala.
THE ROLE OF DESERTIFICATION IN DEEPENING THE
HISTORICAL CONFLICT BETWEEN FARMERS AND HERDERS
IN THE ARID ENVIRONMENTS OF NORTHERN AFRICA
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The concept of environmental conflict

• Types of resource scarcity relevant for conflicts
  analysis (Libiszewsky, 1992)
• Physical scarcity finite amount of available
  resource
• Geopolitical scarcity uneven geographical
  distribution
• Socio-economic scarcity unequal distributon of
  purchasing power and property rights
• ENVIRONMENTAL scarcity resources traditionally
  considered abundant becoming scarce because of
  the failure to adopt sustainable management
  options.
• KEY RESOURCES renewable, extensive, patchy,
  common property
• resources such as as WATER and SOIL FERTILITY
  (Blench, 2003).

ENVIRONMENTAL CONFLICT The environmental
variables do not directly cause the conflict per
se but instead make more salient the variables
that can precipitate conflict (Libiszewski,
1992).
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SAHEL
SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGES UNDERDEVELOPMENT
ECOLOGY OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS
HISTORY
FARMING PASTORALISM
desertification
CONFLICT
CO-OPERATION
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Ecology of arid environments

• Ecosystems in arid environments (FAO, 1989)
• Low water availability due to irregularity in
  spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and
  high temperatures.
• Soil is shallow, easily erodable and not very
  productive.
• Vegetation adapted to fluctuations in physical
  conditions (ephemeral annuals, succulent
  perennials, non-succulent perennials, xerophytic)
• Classical ecological equilibrium theory is unable
  to capture the uncertainty and variability in
  arid ecosystems (Niamir-Fuller, 2001)
• concepts as carrying capacity and stocking rate
  ineffective in predicting ecosystem productivity
• the system can be characterized as multiple
  equilibrium, dynamic equilibrium or
  non-equilibrium

Framework
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The Sudano-Sahelian band
Map

• SAHEL band between the Sahara desert and the
  tropical belt of North-Equatorial Africa (north
  boundary defined by 100-150 mm. isohyet) covered
  with semi-desert grassland, thorn shrub and
  wooded grassland dominated by Acacia spp.
  (LeHouerou, 1989 Wetzel Rath, 2002).
• Perhaps the most dramatic example of climatic
  variability in the world (Hulme, 2001)
  rainfall as limiting factor
• Evolution of the land-use system of Sudan-Sahel
  (Puigdefábregas, 1995)
• 1940-1960 higher rainfall regime leading to
  occupation of marginal areas traditionally
  devoted to nomadic pastoralism by
  agropastoralists moving northwards from more
  fertile, densely inhabited southern areas
  (Balling, 1993).
• 1968 1973 severe drought and environmental
  crisis leading to famine and humanitarian crisis
  (250,000 deaths according to UNCOD, 1977)
• 1968 onwards declining rainfall records
  (Warren-Khogali, 1991) in spite of 1994
  optimistic records (IPCC,2001). Recently migrated
  population trapped because of occupation of their
  former land.
• 1984 the driest year on record in many
  Sudano-Sahelian countries, affecting specially
  the eastern part of the region (Warren-Khogali,
  1991)

Rainfall in Sahel
Framework
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Desertification

• There is no concluding evidence on Sahels
  desertification
• Growing body of scientific knowledge showing that
  deserts have expanded and contracted over
  geological, even recent, time, without any
  significant interference from people (Warren and
  Batterbury, 2004)
• No extensive land degradation, desertification,
  or reduction in plant productivity occurred in
  Central and West Sahel between 1980-1995,
  according to a study based on satellite image
  analysis (Nicholson et al., 1998)

CLIMATE CHANGE IN SAHEL Ambiguity in
predictions in the long-term estimations (IPCC,
2001)
Framework
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Socio-economic changes

• CAUSES
• Fast population growth (Wezel Rath, 2002
  Pieri, 1993) the population of seven
  Sudano-Sahelian countries will have increased
  fivefold from precolonial levels in 21st century.
• Rapid urbanization in 1920 1 of the population
  lived in cities, today more than 30 (Pieri,
  1993).
• Economic globalization dependence on
  fluctuations of global demand of agricultural
  products
• CONSEQUENCES increasing pressure on resources
  with influence on desertification process (Wezel
  Rath, 2002)
• expansion of cultivated land and shortening of
  fallow periods
• intensification of livestock production since
  1950 (LeHouerou, 1996)
• land clearing and wood cutting increasing for
  energetic and agricultural purposes

Evidence
Evidence
Evidence
Framework
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Historical factors

• REMOTE HISTORY
• Ethnic diversity identity of ethnic groups
  linked to resource-use systems (e.g. Dinka
  farmers and Nuer herders in Sudan Peule or
  Felbe herders and Wolof farmers in Nigeria)
  (Warren Khogali, 1991)
• Religious heterogeneity Sudano-Sahelian band as
  a border between different religious beliefs
  (Islam in the North vs. traditional African cults
  and Christians in the South).
• RECENT HISTORY (process of colonization and
  decolonization)
• modification of existing net of power
  relationships (hierarchy) amongst different
  ethnic groups (e.g. Muslim Hasa-Fulani herders
  favoured by the colonial government in Nigeria)
  (Blench, 2001)
• disappearance of the traditional community-based
  system of settling disputes (Banzhaf, 2000, for
  Burkina Faso)

Framework
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The relationship between farmers and herders in
the Sahel

• COMPLEMENTARITY OF LAND USE-SYSTEMS
• Cattle-raising appeared as complementary activity
  to agriculture (Blench, 2001) milk, meat,
  blood, leather and manure exchanged for
  agricultural products (cereals), rights to graze
  or labour.
• In the Sahel, where the more palatable millets
  and sorghums predominate, the exchange of manure
  for stove (and increasingly cash) is major part
  of pastoralists annual grazing strategies in
  most regions (Blench, 2003)
• CONFLICT BETWEEN LAND-USE SYSTEMS
• Agropastoral and nomadic pastoral activities
  overlapping land-use activities sedentary
  agriculture demanding the most fertile land and
  locations close to water points. Non-defined
  border between activities
• Currently encroachment of agricultural onto
  grazing land as a source of conflict in the
  Sahel, (Warren Khogali, 1991)
• An ancient conflict Genesis (Middle East) and
  Maharabata (India)

Framework
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Population growth in the Sahel
Source Wezel Rath, 2002
SE changes
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Agriculture and population in the Sahel
Source Wezel Rath, 2002
SE changes
Framework
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Changes in livestock population in Sudan in 20th
century
Source Wickens, 1997
SE changes
Framework
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Rainfall record in the Sahel along the 20th
century
Source IPCC, 2001
Sahel
Framework
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LAND COVER MAP OF AFRICA (derived from AVHRR
data) Sahel Savannah, N
hemisphere Horn of Africa lowlands
Transition woodland
Source Global Vegetation Monitoring Unit (GVMU)
Sahel
Framework
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Featuring conflicts between farmers and herders
in arid environments

• Competition for water and soil fertility in a
  limiting ecosystem key variables under threat by
  desertification.
• Conflict as part of a wider framework of
  relationships based on cooperation in humid
  periods and on confrontation in dry periods as a
  response to environmental variability.
• Usually conflict as violent reaction of
  pastoralists being invaded their grazing areas by
  expanding agriculture.
• Low-intensity, long-lasting and happening in
  marginal regions.
• Level of violence reached dependant on the
  technical development of warfare available for
  confronting parties evidence of lowering prices
  of small arms (ACTS, 2003)
• Sometimes wide, cruent conflicts in Africa have
  their roots in division between farmers and
  herders along ecological history, although now
  they cannot be explained strictly in terms of
  competition for resources

Framework
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Case study NIGERIA

• Several steps leading to an open, violent
  conflict (Blench, 2001 UN Office for
  Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 2002)
• Muslim Hasa-Fulani herders favoured by colonial
  government got control of local judicial system
  in colonial period
• Independence reversal of previous bias, thus
  farmers compensated for their historical
  mistreatment by local justice
• September 2001 at least 1,000 people killed in a
  week of fighting between mainly Christian locals
  and Hasa-Fulani settlers from further north. Some
  of the attacks were blamed on Fulani herdsmen,
  but the herdsmen accused the local people of
  giving them ultimatum to leave their traditional
  grazing areas.
• Other cases Burkina Faso (Banzhaf, 2002), Sudan
  (IUCN, 2002 Goldsmith et al., 2002 Adams,
  1982), Senegal (Rochette 1989 Touré 1990) Niger
  (Thebaud Batterbury, 2001 McIntosh, 1993)

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Final remarks

• IS CONFLICT INCREASING?
• It is likely that resource conflicts is more
  prevalent than earlier in the century There
  are more people competing for fewer resources and
  there are more perceived resource arenas
  Besides, we should bear in mind the availability
  of powerful weaponry (Blench, 2003)
• Desertification exacerbates poverty and
  political instability. It contributes
  significantly to water scarcity, famine, the
  internal displacement of people, migration, and
  social breakdown Evidence is mounting that
  there is often a strong correlation between civil
  strife and conflict on the one hand and
  environmental factors such as desertification on
  the other (Convention to Combat Desertification,
  2003)
• A vulnerability assessment for 19992000
  estimated that 3.8 million people were moderately
  food insecure in a high-rainfall year in the
  Sahel (USAID, 2000).

Framework
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Keep the discussion on