PHCN National Load Demand Study

1
PHCN - National Load Demand Study

• Methodology

2
Outline

• Introduction
• Technical approach and methodology
• Work plan
• Training and transfer of technology
• Deliverables
• Conclusion

3
Introduction

• Background
• Nigeria Energy Development Project (NEDP)
• Redress deficiencies operational constraints in
  the power system
• Strengthen transmission network and system
  operation
• Development and rehabilitation of generation,
  transmission and distribution facilities
• Necessity of a national load demand study
• Objectives of the study
• 25 years forecast of the national electrical
  demand applied to
• Each consumer class
• Each distribution zone of the country
• Training to develop in-house capabilities

4
Technical approach and methodology

• Load forecasting methods
• The national power system development requires
  the determination of
• How much power must be delivered
• Where it will be needed
• When it will be needed
• 3 complementary approaches
• Global method considerations at a national level
• Semi-global method indicators related to
  categories of consumers
• Analytical method made of each substantial
  single load

Spatial load forecast
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Technical approach and methodology

• Global
• The demand is considered globally, at the
  national or regional level
• Indicators related to total consumption
• National (or regional) GDP,
• Total population change,
• Industrial production index
• Etc
• This method will be used for
• National load forecast
• Regional load forecast

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Technical approach and methodology

• Semi Global
• Decomposition of the demand in sectors and
  categories of customers (depending on data
  available)
• Sectors primary, secondary and tertiary
• Categories Residential, Industrial, Commercial
• Indicators related to consumption of each sector
  / category
• GDP per sector, projected commercial areas,
  population growth rate,
• Forecast per sector / category
• This method will be used for
• National regional forecast

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Technical approach and methodology

• Analytical
• Decomposition of the demand into categories of
  load units
• HV loads
• Large MV loads
• Categories of LV and MV loads residential,
  commercial,
• Indicators related to end uses or specific
  consumption
• For loads down to end user level
• For categories rate of household connection,
  electricity budget affordability,
• Forecast per category
• This method will be used for
• Regional forecast

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Technical approach and methodology

• Study Methodology
• Simultaneous use of each method in order to
  prepare
• A national load forecast
• A regional load forecast for each considered
  regional area
• National load forecast
• Global and semi-global methods
• A future economic evolution estimate is needed
• Regional load forecast
• Global, semi-global and analytical methods
• Integration in a Geographical Information System
  (GIS) database
• Development of three scenarios low, medium and
  high evolution hypothesis

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Technical approach and methodology

• Specific features of the Nigerian system
• Very poor quality of supply
• Substantial suppressed load existing load
  partially or entirely not supplied due to lack of
  generation capacity or inadequacies in
  transmission and distribution facilities
• Considerable self-generation due to inadequate
  supply, many consumers rely on self-generation to
  cover their needs
• Impact on demand analysis
• Load forecast normally uses extrapolation of
  chronological or sectorial data
• May not be applied due to lack of meaningful
  historical data
• Necessity to rely much more on a detailed survey
  and accurate data

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Work plan

• Main steps of the methodology
• Project implementation
• Abuja office installation
• GIS system implementation
• Data collection
• Preliminary organisation training
• Collection of general data in Abuja
• Organisation of the data collection in the 11
  distribution areas
• Load forecast
• National load forecast
• Regional load forecasts

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Work plan

• Project implementation
• Organization
• Local office in Abuja with foreign and local
  experts
• Mobile teams within the country
• Support from Consultants HQ in Brussels
• Tools
• Project web site
• ArcGIS 9.2 for GIS development and management
• ArcPAd for surveys

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Organization
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Work plan

• Data collection
• Critical path of the study
• Will be detailed in a further presentation
• Requires the support and assistance of all
  stakeholders
• Load forecast
• Treatment and analysis of the collected data
• Includes
• Demographic study
• Socio-economic analysis
• Analytical approach

14
Training and transfer of technology

• Importance of the know-how transfer
• Most of the work will be performed in Nigeria
• Specific training seminars will be organised
• Initial seminar on data collection
• Data collection review seminar
• Interim seminar
• Final training session
• Transfer of the tools for future updates
• Software (ArcView, REPA, MADERE, )
• Hardware (GPS, computers, )

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Deliverables

• Following reports will be submitted to PHCN
• Inception report
• Progress report
• At bi-monthly intervals
• Targeted objectives achievements of the project
• Interim report
• After six months
• Preliminary results of the study
• Draft final report
• After 11 months
• Summarizes the results and the important issues
• Final report

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Deliverables

• Databases
• GIS database
• Geographical distribution of the load
  demand/forecast

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Conclusions

• A true challenge to accomplish because of
• The size of the country
• The state of the power sector
• The uncertainties
• An important study with regards of
• The development of the power sector
  infrastructure
• The impact on the economic growth of the country
• The influence on the social welfare of the
  population

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Thank you