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Lincolnshire tPCT

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Title: Lincolnshire tPCT


1
Lincolnshire tPCT Provider Development
Academy Module 2 Knowing your market place
market research, analysis and clinical
informatics Brenda Setchell
2
Module objectives
  • Share information on a range of techniques and
    data sources that can be used to assess markets
  • Contribute to the development of a provider fact
    base
  • Provide an opportunity to trial some of the
    techniques

Tactics, tactics and more tactics
3
Todays agenda
4
Assessing local needs and demands
5
Fit-for-purpose providers will ground their
success in the new healthcare market on a solid
fact base
2. Current services
1. Current needs
  • Activity data by disease group
  • Actual referral patterns by practice
  • Stated service referral policies by practice
  • Public census data
  • Geo-demographic data
  • NHS data sets, e.g. HES, QoF
  • GP datasets showing populations current health
    status
  • Epidemiology data
  • Audit
  • Users by disease group, service location
  • Providers by disease group, service location
  • Performance measures
  • Staff base
  • Physical assets
  • Direct operating costs

4. Competitor profiling
3. Changing demand patterns
  • Users wants, attitudes behaviours
  • User experiences
  • Purchasers preferences
  • Changes in size composition of population,
    e.g. local government planning decision shifts
    in immigration patterns local population
    projections projected trends in activity data
    referral patterns
  • Technological changes
  • For prospective competitors
  • Services supplied
  • Skill, technology resource bases
  • Cost structure financial performance
  • Client base user experiences
  • Goals aspirations

6
Exercise provider fact base audit
  • Conduct a rapid audit of the organisation and
    availability of information within your PCT to
    inform the development of your PCTs provider
    fact base
  • Working in your PCT project team, identify the
    following for your service project
  • Who has responsibility for each of the key market
    information sets listed below and which
    department or team do they currently belong to?
  • Patterns of service use (including HES, community
    services data)
  • Service users needs, demands and experiences
  • Commissioning patterns
  • Commissioners needs and demands
  • Clinical outcomes/service quality (including QoF
    data)
  • Local geo-demographic and census data
  • Competitor intelligence
  • How would you rate the usefulness of each of
    these data sets to developing competitive service
    offerings (high/medium/low/dont know)?
  • Given the outputs of your audit, what top 3
    provider fact base priorities do you believe need
    to be urgently addressed by the PCT?

7
Provider Fact Base _______________ Project
Team/ PCT
Ranking high, medium, low, dont know
8
Key market analysis tools
9
Why do market analysis?
Market analysis
Enables you to assess…
Strategic position
Performance improvement
Market attractiveness
  • Nature and scale of market opportunities
  • Forecast growth (volume and value)
  • Dynamics of a business sector
  • Predict alternative future scenarios
  • Identify your strategic options
  • Define your strategic position
  • Competitive strengths and weaknesses
  • Prepare for upcoming challenges
  • Review suitability of existing strategy
  • identify areas for improvement

10
There are a range of analytic tools that can
contribute to the understanding of your strategic
position
Examples of tools we cover in the modules
  • Market sizing and share
  • PEST analysis
  • Porters five forces of competitive position
  • SWOT analysis
  • Scenario forecasting
  • Company/competitor analysis
  • BCG (growth/ share) matrix
  • Customer/purchaser/supplier needs/demands
  • Financial analysis/ ratios Relative costs
  • Benchmarking

Module 2
Module 4
Module 3
Module 5
NB Remember that they are only tools.
11
Market sizing and share
12
Exercise sizing a market from scratch
  • Working in pairs/threes, discuss the approach you
    would take to estimating the volume of red roses
    sold in the UK on Valentines Day this year
  • You have a 500 budget, a computer and phone, and
    one day to derive an answer
  • Consider the following
  • What key information would you need to derive an
    estimate
  • How would you obtain this information
  • What gaps in the required information might you
    need to fill with informed assumptions?
  • You have10mins to complete this exercise

13
Class discussion
Question Your PCT is considering setting up a
new community hospital-based diabetic retinal
screening service. The service will offer free
transport to appropriate patients. How could you
estimate the costs of providing such a transport
service?
14
PEST analysis accounting for ongoing changes in
a market
P
E
S
T
15
SWOT analysis insight into a companys strategic
options
16
Porters five forces assessing a companys
competitive position
17
Porters five forces assessing a companys
competitive position
Threat of new market entrants
Intensity of competitive rivalry
Bargaining power of buyers
Bargaining power of suppliers
Threat of substitution
18
BCG matrix managing the product or service
portfolio
BCG Boston Consulting Group
19
BCG matrix managing the product or service
portfolio
Question Marks Cash users
Stars Cash in balance
?
High
Dogs Cash in balance
Cash Cows Cash generators
Market growth ()
Low
Low
High
Relative market share
20
Tea/coffee break
21
Forecasting future needs and demands
22
Using forecasts to assist decision making
  • Forecasting the estimation of a variable (or set
    of variables) at some future point in time
  • Assumption is that if you can predict what the
    future will be like, you can modify behaviour now
    to be in a better position than you otherwise
    would have been when the future arrives
  • Different uses for forecasts

Operational
Tactical
Long term
Short term 3-6 mths
Medium term 6mths 2yrs
Long term gt2 yrs
E.g. Production planning, distribution
E.g. Workforce Equipment needs
New service developments, RD
high
low
Ability to make use of data
JE Beasley, Imperial College
23
Forecasting methods
  • No relevant past data
  • Delphi technique ( asking a body of experts to
    arrive at consensus)
  • Ability to forecast y where given values for x
  • Can extend from one variable (linear) to many
    variable ( multiple)
  • Econometric modelling where any different
    variables interact through a series of equations
    (e.g UK Treasury models)
  • Changes over time, especially for short term
    where past behaviour of variable is a good
    predictor of future (e.g moving averages)

Qualitative
Regression
Multiple equation
Time series
24
Scenario forecasting quantifying the impact of
major market drivers on your business over a
defined time period
  • Step 1 identify the 3 or 4 main variables that
    will affect your business over the next 5 years
  • Step 2 think about how the interplay between the
    variables could they combine to have
  • The most favourable impact on your business
  • The least favourable impact on your business
  • The most likely impact on your business?
  • Step 3 quantify the impact of each possible
    outcome on your business over the next 5 years
  • Step 4 translate this into 3 growth scenarios
  • Best case
  • Most likely
  • Worst case
  • Step 5 develop a strategy around the most likely
    outcome - But contingency plan in case the
    market changes

25
Exercise Key drivers affecting your service
  • What do you think are likely to be the key
    drivers affecting your project service over the
    next 5 years?
  • What kind of impact could they have on demand for
    your service(s)?
  • Will demand increase or reduce?
  • How will demand change?
  • What will be the major consequences for your
    service(s)
  • What further information will you want to access
    to improve your understanding of these drivers?

15 minutes
26
Research tools
  • Secondary (desk) research
  • Primary (field) research

27
Assessing demand Desk research is always a good
place to start not least that much of its
free!
  • Before starting any study, always ask has it
    been investigated before?
  • Typical sources of desk research include
  • QoF, HES and other NHS data
  • Former in-house research
  • Press clippings
  • Sector surveys
  • Trade information (including government data,
    healthcare journals, brokers reports)
  • Internet searches
  • Customer records offer unique insights
  • Patterns of service use
  • Comparisons with peers
  • Cost
  • Avoid information overload though……..

28
Techniques for assessing users preferences and
experiences
Core market research techniques
OBSERVATION
Qualitative studies Seek to make relatively
precise measurements of a sample and infer from
them to a strictly defined population
FOCUS GROUPS
MYSTERY SHOPPING
Quantitative studies Aim to extract meaning
(especially about cause and effect) from the
sample itself
  • SURVEYS
  • Face-to-face
  • Telephone
  • Mailed
  • Online/digital

Other useful techniques in healthcare include
panels, narratives and intercepts
29
Design tips for optimising outputs from research
  • Design the questionnaire with the studys
    specific aims and respondents in mind
  • Questions short, to the point and no leading
    questions
  • Devise a logical flow to questions
  • List possible categories of responses
  • Put sensitive questions towards the end and
    explain your reasons for asking them
  • Include instructions for interviewers
  • Conduct a pilot test
  • Select an appropriate sample size

30
Research Ethics Not to be Overlooked
  • Research conducted within the NHS covered by
  • Research governance framework for health and
    social care1
  • Best research for best health a new national
    health research strategy2
  • Implementation plans published from summer 2006
    on www.corec.org.uk
  • Building on Improvement, implementing the
    recommendations, August 2006
  • Core standard C12 of the Healthcare Commissions
    annual health check
  • Research ethics committees
  • Independent advice on compliance of research
    studies with ethical standards
  • Available guidance is not definitive, but
    research studies on service evaluation and audit
    should not require REC approval oversight
    instead by NHS trusts
  • Market Research Societys code of conduct see
    www.mrs.org
  • Ethical consideration should be given to, for
    example
  • How research subjects are recruited and what they
    are told about the study
  • What data are collected and how this is done
  • How data are treated post-research
  • Strict data protection regulations apply to
    patient identifiable data

Sources 1 Department of Health (Apr 2005) 2
Department of Health (Jan 2006)
31
Class discussion
Question How could you field research user
experiences in local care homes and what problems
might you experience when doing this?
32
Competitor analysis
33
Understanding your competitors
COMPETITOR ANALYSIS
What is it?
Why do it?
An assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of
current and potential competitors
  • To understand your disadvantages relative to your
    competitors
  • To understand competitors past, present and
    future strategies
  • To inform strategies to achieve strategic
    advantage in the future
  • To forecast potential returns on future
    investments

It is pardonable to be defeated, but never to be
surprised (Frederick the Great, 1712-96)
34
Five steps to do competitor analysis
Step 1 Who are your competitors?
Step 2 What questions must your competitor
analysis answer?
Step 3 Pinpoint, then research relevant
sources
Step 4 Bring it all together in a competitor
profile
Include service portfolio, market positioning,
key financials strategic outlook
Step 5 Create a competitor array
  • Identify Key Success Factors
  • Rank and weight
  • Assess comparative performance

35
Step 1 identify who your competitors are
  • Who is a competitor?
  • Other organisations offering the same service now
  • Other organisations offering similar services now
  • Organisations that could offer the same or
    similar services in the future
  • Organisations that could remove the need for your
    service
  • They are likely to target your market when
  • There are high returns to be made
  • There is unmet demand (insufficient supply)
  • There are no major barriers to entry
  • There is future growth potential
  • Competitive rivalry is not intense
  • Gaining a competitive edge over existing players
    is feasible

Think about Porters five forces and the
intensity of competitive rivalry
36
Step 4 the competitor profile
  • Executive summary
  • Very brief profile of competitor
  • Competitors strategic objectives
  • Key strengths and weaknesses
  • What threats do they pose us?
  • Background information
  • Data founded
  • Overview of what company does
  • Executive team
  • Vision statement
  • Ownership structure
  • Organisational/divisional structure
  • Service portfolio
  • Evolution in service focus
  • Main services (including SWOT analysis)
  • Development activity associated with each service
    line
  • Current public sector contracts
  • Market positioning
  • Target customer segments
  • Geographic markets
  • Market share (where possible)
  • Relationships with key suppliers, purchasers,
    commissioners, customers, government, etc.
  • Marketing strategy
  • Key financials
  • Current, historical and projected revenues by
    division/service
  • Cost structure (by division)
  • Key ratios
  • Profitability
  • Strategic outlook
  • Strategic objectives
  • Growth catalysts (e.g. upcoming tenders)
  • Growth strategies (organic growth, partnerships,
    MA)

To be covered in module 3
37
Step 5 A competitor array
Hypothetical example from a consumer market
b
a
c
d
e
a
Key relate to steps to be followed
38
Project review and follow up work
39
Project progress to date
  • Tasks set following module 1
  • In your PCT project team
  • Agree your project objectives
  • Define the business model for your proposed
    service offering
  • What is the proposed service offering to what
    target market with what skills and assets what
    is the competitive positioning
  • Outline the actions, milestones and timing for
    the completion of your project service plan

40
Module 2 follow-up creating a market research
and analysis strategy
  • Objective
  • Create a market research and analysis strategy
    for the service covered by your Academy project
    team
  • Rationale
  • Supports business development and marketing
    strategies
  • Optimises business success by tailoring service
    offerings to users and purchasers current and
    future needs
  • Task to consider
  • What market research and analysis information you
    have about this service?
  • To what extent can the information be used to
    inform decisions that the PCT needs to make over
    the next 12 months?
  • Consider the timeliness, appropriateness and
    comprehensiveness of the information
  • Focus in particular on its contribution to (a)
    understanding user and purchaser needs and wants
    (b) understanding user experiences, and (c)
    forecasting revenue
  • What key market research and analysis gaps are
    important to fill over the next 6 months if the
    service is to be competitive and profitable?
  • How can these gaps be most cost-effectively
    filled?

41
Thank you
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