Whither Nanotechnology

1
Whither Nanotechnology

• Ralph C. Merkle
• Xerox PARC
• www.merkle.com

2
Seventh Elba-Foresight Conference on
NanotechnologyApril, 1999Rome,
Italywww.foresight.org/Conferences
3
The goal nanotechnology(a.k.a. molecular
manufacturing)

• Fabricate most structures that are specified with
  molecular detail and which are consistent with
  physical law
• Get essentially every atom in the right place
• Inexpensive manufacturing costs (10-50
  cents/kilogram)

http//nano.xerox.com/nano
4
Where we are today

• We can make only an infinitesimal fraction of
  whats possible
• We spray atoms around almost randomly
• We pay many millions of dollars per kilogram for
  the thin layer on top of a computer chip that
  actually computes

5
Possible arrangements of atoms
What we can make today (not to scale)
.
6
The goal of molecular nanotechnology a healthy
bite.
.
7
We must develop fundamentally new capabilities
Molecular Manufacturing Systems
We dont have molecular manufacturing today.
.
What we can make today (not to scale)
8
Should we actively pursue the development of
molecular nanotechnology?

• Is it feasible?
• Is it valuable?
• Can we do things today to speed its development?

9
The good news

• It is now generally accepted that molecular
  nanotechnology is feasible and valuable.
• (This took a few decades)

10
The principles of physics, as far as I can see,
do not speak against the possibility of
maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not
anattempt to violate any laws it is something,
in principle, that can be done but in practice,
it has not been done because we are toobig.
Richard Feynman, 1959
http//nano.xerox.com/nanotech/feynman.html
11
Most interesting structures that are at least
substantial local minima on a potential energy
surface can probably be made one way or another.
Richard Smalley Nobel
Laureate in Chemistry, 1996
12
The bad news

• Theres still a great deal of confusion and
  disagreement about what to do

13
What needs to be done

• Experimental work to advance existing
  capabilities
• Theoretical work to clarify pathways and
  objectives

14
Overview of the development of molecular
nanotechnology
Products
Products
Core molecular manufacturing capabilities
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Today
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
15
Issues

• Positional control
• Self replication
• Idiosyncratic versus systematic
• Making big things
• How long

16
A proposal for a programmable molecular
positional device
17
Issues with positional control

• Speed
• Size
• Error rates
• Imperfect environment
• Tip characteristics

18
Proposal for a self replicating device an
assembler
http//www.foresight.org/UTF/Unbound_LBW/chapt_6.h
tml
19
Von Neumann architecture for a self replicating
system
Universal Computer
Universal Constructor
http//nano.xerox.com/nanotech/vonNeumann.html
20
Drexlers architecture for an assembler
Molecular computer
Molecular constructor
Positional device
Tip chemistry
21
Complexity of self replicating systems (bits)
C program 808 Von Neumann's universal
constructor 500,000 Internet worm (Robert Morris,
Jr., 1988) 500,000 Mycoplasma capricolum 1,600,0
00 E. Coli 9,278,442 Drexler's
assembler 100,000,000 Human 6,400,000,000
NASA Lunar Manufacturing Facility over
100,000,000,000
http//nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.html
22
A C program that prints out an exact copy of
itself

• main()char q34, n10,a"main() char
  q34,n10,acsc printf(a,q,a,q,n)c"printf
  (a,q,a,q,n)

For more information, see the Recursion
Theorem http//nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.ht
ml
23
English translation

• Print the following statement twice, the second
  time in quotes
• Print the following statement twice, the second
  time in quotes

24
Idiosyncratic vs systematic

• Idiosyncratic view each new thing that we
  synthesize requires some new and unique method of
  making it which takes much time and effort to
  work out.
• Systematic view new things are made by using old
  tools in different ways to rearrange standard
  parts.

25
Is nanotechnology only about small things?

• Nanotechnology sounds like its about making
  small things.
• But its actually about the precision with which
  we make things of all sizes, including very big
  things.

26
How long?

• We dont know
• Trends in computer hardware suggest early in the
  next century perhaps in the 2010 to 2020 time
  frame
• How long it takes depends on what we do. A
  focused effort will greatly speed development.

27
Its possible to think that nanotechnology

• Wont involve positional control
• Wont involve self replication
• Wont be systematic
• Will only make small things
• Will take 100 years

28
Can we abandon these principles without
compromising the goal?

• Positional control
• Self replication
• Systematic methods
• Products of all sizes
• A focused effort to develop the technology within
  our lifetimes