International Crises, Crisis Management and the Media

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International Crises, Crisis Management and the
Media

• Philip M. Taylor
• Institute of Communications Studies
• University of Leeds

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Course requirements

• 1 X 3,000 word essay by 14 March 2008 (draft 2
  weeks earlier)
• 1 X 2 hour exam (choice of 8-10 questions)
• Course booklet is on PMT website.
• Course has dedicated sections on the website
• http//ics.leeds.ac.uk/papers/index.cfm?outfitpmt

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Course structure

• Course is essentially delivered in the first 3 x
  2 hour lectures
• Thereafter, case studies
• Emphasis is on media coverage of chosen
  international crises and how that coverage was
  managed by both media organisations and
  governments
• For essays, you can choose your own crisis if
  it is not covered in formal delivery

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The 21st CENTURY ENVIRONMENT?
TERRORISM
POPULATION GROWTH RESOURCE SCARCITY War over
Food, Water, Fish
Changing ALLIANCES IMPACT OF THE EURO ECO-ASIA

Global Warming / Ecological disaster
Creeping Deserts
Virtual States
Sub-National Groups Russian Mafia, FARC,
INFORMATION WARFARE
WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
ETHNO- Religious PAN-NATIONALISM
CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY
More GNP More Defense Spending
DISEASE (AIDS PANDEMIC MALARIA, EBOLA)
GLOBAL ECONOMICINTERDEPENDENCE
ASYMMETRIC WARFARE
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The 21st century Info-sphere
New regional players
citizen journalists/ Digital eye-witnesses
24/7 rolling news
The Internet
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International Information the old US
definition (1999)
The conscious use of available means to inform
foreign audiences regarding U.S. policies and
activities for the purpose of convincing those
audiences of the legitimacy of the U.S.
government position.
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International Information

• Goal To achieve U.S. national objectives
  without resorting to force, or act as a force
  multiplier in the event force is required
• Three Tools
• Public Affairs
• Public Diplomacy
• Psychological Operations

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Strategic Communications the new magic
bullet?

• SC doctrine still emerging (US driven)
• Embraces notion of a global information space
  in which governments take command and control
  of the information environment, wherever possible
• Is this possible in the 21st century info-spehere
  or media-sphere?
• In cyberspace, who (and where) is the enemy?
• Ramifications for democracy?

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Strategic Communication the new US definition

• The coordination of Statecraft, Public Affairs,
  Public Diplomacy, Military Information
  Operations and other activities, reinforced by
  political, economic and military actions, in a
  synchronized and coordinated manner.
• (National Security Council definition of
  Strategic Communication, February 2005, approved
  by Condoleezza Rice before her transition to the
  State Department.)

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STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
PUBLIC AFFAIRS
INFORMATION OPERATIONS
CULTURAL DIPLOMACY
INTERNATIONAL BROADCASTING
HUMAN FACTORS
DOMESTIC
FOREIGN
CNO
OSI OSP
PSYOPS CIMIC MEDIA
INFO ASSURANCE OPSEC, EW DECEPTION
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PUBLIC AFFAIRS
FOREIGN
DOMESTIC
News agencies, In-country media Media Monitoring
Home local, Regional National Media
News agencies, Foreign Press Corps in situ
Responsibility of Ambassadors and their press
officers
Responsibility of all ministries and their public
affairs officers
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Public Affairs
Those public information and community
relations activities directed toward the domestic
general public by various elements of the USG, as
well as those activities directed to foreign
publics, including the media, by official U.S.
spokesmen abroad.
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Public Affairs

• Provides information to intermediaries, i.e.
  reporters for international media
• State Department/Foreign Ministry is lead agency
• Intent is to inform, not necessarily persuade
• Audience (reporters) is self selecting
• Often more pull than push
• Some spin, but not viewed by either side as
  controlled/controllable

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Public Diplomacy
Governmental activities intended to inform,
influence and understand foreign publics. As a
complement to traditional diplomacy, public
diplomacy is the communication of U.S. interests
and values directly to foreign publics, including
strategically placed individuals and
institutions.
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Public Diplomacy

• Traditionally targeted elites, but paradigm has
  shifted
• USIA/USIS was lead agency
• More push than pull
• WORLDNET TV
• VOA, RFE/RL, Radio/TV Marti
• Foreign Press Centers, Washington File
• Seen by audience as controlled

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Psychological Operations
Activities designed to convey selected
information and indicators to foreign audiences
to influence the behavior of foreign governments,
organizations, groups and individuals. The
purpose of psychological operations is to induce
or reinforce foreign attitudes and behavior
favorable to the overall national security
interests of the United States.
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Psychological Operations

• May target friendly, neutral and/or hostile
  audiences
• DoD/MoD is lead agency
• Coordinated with State and OGAs
• May be undertaken in support of, or independent
  from other military operations
• All push, no pull media tailored to target
  audience

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Information Age
The current military-technical revolution, as in
the case of some earlier periods of major change
in military affairs, is part of a broader
revolution with political, economic and social
dimensions. It is being shaped by profound
changes in technology, perhaps most notably in
the area of information technology....
William J. Perry, 10/06/94
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How did we get here? Main Trends for
Military-Media Crisis Management in the Post Cold
War Era

• From inter-state to intra-state conflict
• From military war-fighting to peacekeeping, peace
  building and peace support
• From military-military communications to
  military-civilian communications
• Decline of specialised foreign and defence
  correspondents
• Increased emphasis on real-time reporting
• From Information Warfare to Information
  Operations (electronic Pearl Harbour)

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From inter to intra state conflict

• Gulf War (1991) and Kosovo (1999) are the
  exceptions since the end of a bi-polar world
• Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda, Bosnia, East Timor,
  Sierra Leone, Chechnya etc the norm
• At least from the media (therefore government?)
  point of view
• Sudan? CNN effect?

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The changing role of the military

• More UN peacekeeping missions now than ever
  before
• Variety of peacekeeping operations
• Changing world accompanied by RMA
• RMA places information and communications at
  centre of C2W and C4I
• Command, Control, Communications, Computers,
  Intelligence and..?
• CNN!

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Heavily armed social workers?

• Operations other than war involve civilians in
  distraught and complex situations (hence
  attention to public diplomacy)
• Attention to information support in the
  military operation is essential
• Increased role of Psychological Operations in
  theatre
• Increased role of Public Affairs/Public
  Information in global media environment

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Role of the International Media

• Increasingly competitive, deregulated
  infotainment market
• Human Interest stories and the decline of the
  specialist/rise of the freelancer
• Easier to manipulate within certain ground
  rules (Gulf War and Kosovo)
• More difficult to control access to
  communications technologies

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Back to Strategic Communications

• Knowledge explosion
• Computer power up six orders of magnitude by 2025
• Global interconnectivity
  The developed world is moving to an
  information based economy---BUT

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What about the Less Developed World?

• 5.7 billion current population will double in our
  lifetime
• 4.5 billion live in poor countries (average per
  capita GNP about 1K)
• 35 of population under age 15
• Population in LDCs up 143 by 2025
• Population under age 15 may exceed 50 in some
  countries

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Increasing Urbanization

• Half of world population now is urban two
  thirds by 2025
• 27 mega-cities (10M) by 2015, 24 in less
  developed world
• Of 325 cities of 1M today, 213 are in less
  developed world
• By 2025, Latin America 85, Africa 58 and Asia
  53 urban

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Increasing instability, especially in the
Developing World

• Traditional national sovereignties eroding
• Religious, tribal and ethnic conflict spreading
• Guerrilla, paramilitary and criminal groups
  proliferating
• Numbers of displaced persons growing

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So What?

• More Complex Humanitarian Crises Are Almost
  Certain
• Traditional infrastructures (administrative,
  health sanitation, water, power, etc.) will
  continue to erode in third world
• The global information infrastructure will
  continue to expand and become more robust
• Urban centers in the second and third world will
  function as communication nodes

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Information Age

• The ability of any central authority to control
  information flow will diminish
• First world policy makers will be increasingly
  unable to ignore LDC events
• Global telecommunications will provide scenes
  that result in policy shifts and turn military
  operations into improvisational theater

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Certainties

• Complexity of crises
• Complexity of (unstoppable) information flows
• Competing information credibility between
  traditional and new media
• Misinformation and disinformation
• The struggle to be first vs. the struggle to be
  right

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How do you manage those crises?

• An integrated information policy (hence SC)
• Long-term communication of (soft) power
• Short-term but planned PSYOP and PA/PI activity
  close to the centre of decision-making
• Professionalised information activity AND crisis
  management scenarios
• Keep within the democratic tradition a strength
  and a weakness