A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SUPPLY OPTIONS FOR MUNICIPAL AND RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS

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A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SUPPLY OPTIONS
FOR MUNICIPAL AND RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS
Rzeszow University of TechnologyFaculty of
Electrical and Computer Engineering, Poland
Tadeusz Bewszko
__________________________________________________
______________________The 20th Workshop on
Complex Systems Modeling, IIASA, August 28-30,
2006.
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CONTENTS

• Energy planning as a multicriteria problem.
• Literature review of application of
  multi-criteria methods to energy supply of
  residential customers.
• 3. Problem formulation.
• New method of selecting energy supplying option
  for residential customers.
• Application of new method to real life problems.
• 6. Results, future work.

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ENERGY PLANNING AS A MULTICRITERIA PROBLEM
Coal
Biomass
Gas
LPG
Oil
District heat
Heat pump
Electricity
Electricity (night)
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LITERATURE REVIEW OF APPLICATION OF MULTICRITERIA
METHODS TO ENERGY SUPPLY OF RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS
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CONCLUSIONS AFTER LITERATURE REVIEW

• Modern, friendly for DM, interactive
  multi-objective decision making methods have not
  been used so far to solve decision-making problem
  of selecting optimal energy supplying option for
  municipal and residential customers.

All energy demands for residential customers
have not been taken into account.
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PROBLEM FORMULATION
Examination of possibility of application and
effectiveness of interactive multi-objective
decision making methods to solve decision-making
problem of selecting optimal energy supplying
option for municipal and residential customers.
AIM OF WORK
- to build mathematical model of decision
problem of selecting optimal energy supplying
option for municipal and residential customers,
- to make multicriteria analyses with
different sets of decision criteria by using
existing software implementation of interactive
multiobjective decision making method
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CHOOSING INTERACTIVE MULTI-OBJECTIVE DECISION
MAKING METHOD

• There exist a lot of interactive multi-objective
  decision making methods

• A few of existing software implementation of
  interactive multi-objective decision making
  methods

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CHOOSING INTERACTIVE MULTI-OBJECTIVE DECISION
MAKING METHOD
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METHOD OF SELECTING ENERGY SUPPLYING OPTION FOR
MUNICIPAL AND RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS

• 1. Building a multicriteria model of decision
  problem of supplying energy to a selected
  customer.

2. Making multicriteria analyses with different
sets of decision criteria.
3. The use of a scenario analysis for supporting
decisionmaking process which involves
uncertainty.
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MULTICRITERIA MODELLING OF DECISION PROBLEM OF
SUPPLYING ENERGY TO RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS
Verification of the model
Define outcome variables
Define constrains
Define decision variables
Specification of - set of energy demands of
customer- set of available energy carriers -
set of energy conversion technologies
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TYPES OF USERS AND ANALYSES

• Economical customer economical and comfort
  criteria
• Environmentally friendly customer economical,
  ecological, and comfort criteria
• Policy maker economical, ecological, and energy
  safety criteria

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A SCENARIO ANALYSIS FOR SUPPORTING
DECISIONMAKING PROBLEM WHICH INVOLVES
UNCERTAINTY

• Uncertainty - possibility changes of parameters
  of the mathematical model (prices of energy
  carriers, energy demands).

• A SCENARIO ANALYSIS one of the methods of
  coping with uncertainty.

• A scenario analysis includes
• an evaluation of scenarios of changes in future
  of values of some model parameters,
• examination of changes of values of some outcome
  variables for some solutions taken from
  multi-criteria analyses.

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APPLICATION OF THE METHOD TO REAL LIFE PROBLEMS

• Selecting energy supplying option for
• a single family house (two users B1, B2),
• a flat in multifamily block (two users M1, M2).

• For each decision making problem
• multicriteria model of problem has been built
• and used for multicriteria analyses
• and scenario analysis.

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SELECTING ENERGY SUPPLYING OPTION FOR SINGLE
FAMILY HOUSE

• Two single family houses (user B1, B2),
• Both buildings take advantage of all available
  technical solutions to minimize thermal losses,
• Number of inhabitants are known,
• Energy demands were taken from statistical data,
• Investments costs and prices of energy carriers
  were taken from Rzeszow area.

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MODEL DESCRIPTIONS

• Decision variables

xij - energy supplied by the i-th carrier j-th
demand
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OUTCOME VARIABLES

• INV - The Investment Cost of a Whole System, PLN

• OMC The Total Annual Operation and Maintenance
  Cost, PLN

• TAC The Total Annual Cost of Using Energy
  System, PLN

• LCC The Life Cycle Cost, PLN

• TotEmk The Total Emission of Different
  Pollutants, kg k ? POL CO2,
  SO2, NO2, PM

• Inv_TotSysEff The Total System Efficiency, -

• TotRes The Total Amount of Used Resources, GJ

• ImpRes The Total Amount of Imported Resources,
  GJ

• ComUse Comfort of Use, -

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VARIOUS TYPES OF USERS AND ANALYSES
Four types of analyses were carried out

• Analysis A economical criteria (INV, OMC, TAC)
  and comfort criterion (ComUse),

• Analysis B economical criterion (LCC) and
  comfort criterion (ComUse),

• Analysis C economical criteria (INV, OMC),
  comfort criterion (ComUse) and ecological
  criteria (TotEmCO2, TotEmSO2, TotEmPM),

• Analysis D economical criteria (INV, OMC),
  comfort criterion (ComUse), ecological
  criteria (TotEmCO2, TotEmSO2) and energy
  safety criterion (ImpRes).

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RESULTS OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS (1)
Table 1. Results of analysis A
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RESULTS OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS (2)
Table 2. Results of analysis D
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THE USE OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Two parameters of the mathematical model could
change in 15 years time
YeEnDe total energy demand
CEi cost of 1 GJ of i-th energy carrier
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RESULTS OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Fig. 2. Trajectory of values of outcome variable
OMC for B1 user for decision gas, gas, gas,
elect.
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RESULTS OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS


Fig. 3. Cost LCC for B1 user for decision gas,
gas, gas, elect.
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CONCLUSIONS
   Interactive multi-objective decision making
methods could be effectively used to solve
decision-making problem of selecting energy
supplying option for municipal and residential
customers.
   Decision-making process is friendly for DM.
   Problem of selecting energy supplying option
for municipal and residential customers is a part
of much broader subject local energy planning.
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FUTURE
   Multicriteria modelling and analyses of many
heterogeneous energy users
   Planning energy supply for municipal systems.
   Regional energy planning - heterogeneity
(across temporal and spatial scales) energy
users - uncertainty (price of energy carriers
and energy demands) - apply new
technologies - apply locally available renewable
energy resources - model based decision support
systems.
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MULTI CRITERIA MODEL ANALYSIS

• Various trade-offs criteria
• Analysis of various Pareto solutions

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VARIOUS TYPES OF ANALYSES

• economical and comfort
• economical, ecological, and comfort
• economical, ecological, and energy safety

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MODELOWANIE MATEMATYCZNE ZASILANIA W ENERGIE
BUDYNKU MIESZKALNEGO JEDNORODZINNEGO
P(x,y)
Model matematyczny y f (x,z)
y
z

• gdzie
• x ? Rn oznacza wektor zmiennych decyzyjnych,
• y ? Rm oznacza wektor rezultatów decyzji
  (zmiennych wyjsciowych),
• z wektor parametrów (decyzji zewnetrznych),
• P(x,y) preferencje decydenta.

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OGÓLNY SCHEMAT INTERAKTYWNEJ WIELOKRYTERIALNEJ
METODY ANALIZY MODELU SYTUACJI DECYZYJNEJ
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