Aviation Forecasting

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Aviation Forecasting
Darin Figurskey, Meteorologist-in-Charge NOAAs
National Weather Service, Raleigh 27 January 2009
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Why the Department of Commerce?

• The National Weather Service (then the Weather
  Bureau) left the Department of Agriculture and
  joined the Department of Commerce in 1940.
• The growth of the airline industry and its
  relationship to the commerce of America was a key
  reason for the shift.

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What Does Aviation Forecasting Consist Of?

• National Weather Service Forecast Offices
• Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
• Center Weather Service Units
• Liaison with the FAA at its centers, Center
  Weather Advisories (CWAs) and Meteorological
  Impact Statements (MISs)
• The Aviation Weather Center
• In-flight advisories (AIRMETs, SIGMETs)
• The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
• Winds and temperature aloft forecasts

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• WFO Raleigh forecasts for five airports in
  central North Carolina
• KINT
• KGSO
• KRDU
• KFAY
• KRWI

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What Goes Into a TAF?

• KGSO 132320Z 1400/1424 31008G15KT P6SM FEW070
• FM140700 32008G15KT P6SM SKC
• TEMPO 1408/1412 1/2SM FG BKN005
• FM141300 35007KT P6SM SKC WS015/22030KT
• FM142000 20010KT P6SM SKC
• TAFs are issued every six hours, and updated as
  needed.
• Scheduled TAFs are issued between 20 and 40
  minutes before due.
• Elements of the TAF include
• WIND (31008G15KT)
• VISIBILITY (P6SM, 1/2SM)
• WEATHER (FG for fog, RA for rain, TS for thunder,
  SN for snow)
• SKY (FEW070, BKN005)
• LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (WS015/22030KT)
• TEMPORARY AND CHANCE CONDITIONS (TEMPO, PROB30)

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Another Example

• KORD 162320Z 1700/1806 18007KT P6SM SCT100 SCT250
  
• FM170700 19013KT P6SM BKN040 BKN080
• FM171400 20015G26KT 6SM -SN SCT025 OVC040
• TEMPO 1714/1717 3SM -SN BKN025
• FM171800 22014G23KT 5SM BR BKN015 OVC025
• TEMPO 1718/1722 3SM -SN
• FM172300 25013KT P6SM SCT012 OVC020
• TEMPO 1723/1802 3SM SHSN
• FM180200 30012KT P6SM SCT015 BKN025
• PROB30 1802/1804 5SM -SHSN
• In this case, the TAF for Chicagos OHare
  Airport is 30 hours in length. Several large
  airports now have 30-hour TAF service at the
  request of customers.

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Aviation Forecast Discussion

• .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
• AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
  THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD... AS ARCTIC HIGH
  PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE MID
  ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXTENSIVE MID
  AND HIGH CLOUDS -- ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
  TROUGH ALOFT (MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE)
  CENTERED NEAR ATLANTA AT THE MOMENT -- WILL CLEAR
  CENTRAL NC BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT... WITH CLEAR SKIES
  EXPECTED THEREAFTER. NEAR SURFACE WINDS WILL
  REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...
  BECOMING VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OR
  SOUTHERLY LATE SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE MOVES
  EAST.
• The aviation discussions, new within the last
  couple of years, are meant to help aviation
  interests understand the impacts to aviation in
  and near the terminal sites. Especially helpful
  are discussions of alternatives not included in
  the TAF. Customer feedback has been positive.

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Measures of Success
Thunderstorm climatology Crosswind and low-level
wind shear climatology Outreach to internal
partners and external customers
Includes forecasts for INT, GSO, RDU, FAY, RWI
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• The CWSUs serving the nation.
• Central NC is served mostly by the Washington
  CWSU, with a small portion served by Atlanta.

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A CWSU Product - MIS

• ICING- NONE SIG EXPECTED.TURB- LGT-MOD TURB IS
  PSBL ALONG ERN ZNY AND WRN ZNY. OCEANIC
  AIRSPACE...TURB IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN FL200 AND
  FL300..TRACON AREA FORECAST- VFR COND WILL CONT
  THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL START OFF FM 290-31
  AT 10-14KT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20KT AT
  LGA/JFK...AFT 19-20Z GUSTS WILL DIMINISH...AFT
  01-03Z WINDS WILL BEC 8KT OR LESS
  EVERYWHERE..ZNY OCEANIC AIRSPACE- LGT-MOD TURB
  PSBL IN NWRN PARTS OF THE AIRSPACE...TURB IS
  MOST LIKELY BETWEEN FL200 AND FL300.

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The Aviation Weather Center

• Located in the National Weather Service Training
  Center just north of Kansas City, MO
• In-flight advisories for turbulence, icing, wind,
  IFR, mountain obscuration. LLWS, volcanic ash
• (SIGMETs and AIRMETs)
• SIGMET Significant Meteorological Information
• AIRMET Airmens Meteorological Information
  (conditions less significant but still a concern)
• Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)

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AIRMET TANGO FOR TURB VALID UNTIL 170900 AIRMET
TURB...NC SC GA FL AND CSTL WTRS FROM 160SE SIE
TO 190ESE ECG TO 130SSE ILM TO 180E PBI TO 70SW
SRQ TO 130ESE LEV TO 40W CEW TO 50SW PZD TO GQO
TO HMV TO 20NE ECG TO 160SE SIE MOD TURB BTN
FL180 AND FL400. CONDS CONTG BYD 09Z THRU 15Z.
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(No Transcript)
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• NCEP winds aloft forecast

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The Graphs Easier to Read Than
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Thank you for all of the great reports from the
recent snow event! The reports were great, and
were collected and passed along to many through
public information statements.
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