Project Phoenix - Integrated Assessment of Global Warming Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation with Multi-region and Multi-sector Model and Scenario Development

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Project Phoenix - Integrated Assessment of Global
Warming Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation with
Multi-region and Multi-sector Model and Scenario
Development

• Shunsuke Mori (RITE, Tokyo Univ.of Science)
• Toshimasa Tomoda, Hiromi Yamamoto,
• Keigo Akimoto, Koji Tokimatsu,
• Ayami Hayashi,Takashi Honma (RITE),
• Takanobu Kosugi,(Ritsumeikan University)

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Integrated Assessment Models as a platform of the
policy and technology assessments

• Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been
  developed since 1990s as a powerful tool for this
  subject. However,
• Economic models and technology assessments deal
  with near future (until 2020) while existing IAMs
  mainly talk about near 2100.
• Economic models and technology assessments mainly
  analyze country level while existing IAMs mainly
  aggregate the world into 10-15 regions.
• Globalization, civilization, penetration of IT,
  industrial structure changes etc. are not well
  discussed in the global environmental context.

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Project Phoenix- Paths toward Harmony Of
Environment, Natural resources and Industry
complex

• Developed by the RITE - Research Institute of
  Innovative Technology for the Earth
• Supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and
  Industry as a part of an International Research
  Promotion Funds for the Global Environment
• A project for 2002-2006 (five years)

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Structure of Project Phoenix three WGs

• Multi region and sector model GTAP
• Easy to connect with GAMS
• - Dynamics
• Aggregated energy technologies and sources
• (Model development WG)

Assessments of global warming Availability on
food, water, climate change studies -
Uncertainties of global warming
damages (Warming impacts WG)
Energy demand, economic activities, structural
changes Data availability (trade and
economic statistics) - Societal structural
change (Warming factors WG)
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EAssessments of global warming water
resource ocean, river and lakes land use food
production vegetation etc.
J Biosphere human health impacts on biosphere
K Mitigation investment ex-post
expenditure ex-ante investment cost-benefit
integrated assessments
D Assessments of regional climate
change GCM data GIS
F Food supply and demand
GEnergy demand transportation public and
household long-term growth patterns structural
changes

• A Economic activities GTAP model
• multi regional and multi-sectoral
• - CGE model
• - static model
• energy flow and technologies
• should be integrated

C Assessments of Global climate change simple
climate models (MAGICC, BERN)
B Energy flow model existing research activities
in RITE DNE-21 and LDNE-21 Energy demand
scenarios should be provided based on the
economic and societal story-lines.
H Assessments of regional options CGS,
distributed energy systems renewable
sources recycling and waste managements
I Regional structure change civilization soc
ial structure modeling methods
L GHG emission scenario detailed regional
emission scenario
subjects in 2004
subjects after 2005
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Activities in Model Development WG

• GTAP (Purdue Univ.) incorporates more than 60
  regions and sectors and is still being expanded.
• GTAP is designed to assess the international
  trade and production impacts of various policy
  options.
• GTAP-EG includes energy flow subsystems.
• GTAP provides comprehensive and consistent world
  economic data base.
• In Phoenix Project,
• We aim at the assessments of the certain
  technologies such as energy conversion
  technologies, carbon capture options, biomass
  production and utilization, etc.
• Dynamic model simulation is also needed.
• We impose the bottoming up technology model into
  the GTAP model simplifying the frame, if
  necessary.

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Conceptual Frame of the Model
Intermediate Inputs Intermediate Inputs Intermediate Inputs Intermediate Inputs Final demand Final demand Final demand
Non-energy sectors Non-energy sectors Energy sectors Energy sectors trade Invest ments Con sump Tion Output
1 2 Primary Secondary m I C Q
Int. Inputs Non-energy Sectors 1 X11 Q1a11 X12 Q2a12 0 0 m1 I1 C1 Q1
Int. Inputs Non-energy Sectors 2 X21 Q1a21 X22 Q2a22 0 0 m2 I2 C2 Q2
Int. Inputs Energy Sectors Primary 0 0 0 Xpe mp 0 0 EC_prePpS
Int. Inputs Energy Sectors Secondary Xe1 PeE1 Xe2 PeE2 0 0 0 0 Ce PeEc EC PeE
Value Added K PkK1 PkK2 VA_pre VA_E Y
Value Added L PLL1 PLL2 VA_pre VA_E Y
Output Q Q1 Q2 EC_prePpS EC PeE Q
VA_EpreS(capital and labor costs of primary
energy extraction and production costs)(others)
VA_ES(capital and labor costs of energy
conversion technologies )(others)
Vf(K,L,E)-(secondary energy input costs)
(Total secondary energy supply)S(Conv.
Eff.)(primary energy inputs)
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Basic row-wise constraints
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Basic column-wise constraints
Where Pd(i) price of i-th goods produced by
the national industry PI(i) price of i-th
goods in the international market
(average price of the world trade basket) PY(i)
average price of i-th goods in the national
market Trd(i) international transportation
tariff of i-th goods
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Integration of energy flow
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Model structureSimple energy conversion processes
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Energy flow in DNE-21 modelsimplified structure
will be imposed.
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Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18
non-energy sectors
18 regions
USA USA CAF Middle African countries
CAN Canada SAF South African countries
MCM Middle American countries JPN Japan
BRA Brazil CHN China, Hong kong, Taiwan
SAM Peru, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and other south American countries IND India
WEP West and middle European countries ASN Asia NIES countries
EEP Hungary, Poland and other east European countries TME Turkey and Middle-East countries
FSU Former USSR ANZ Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island countries
NAF North and Middle African countries XAP Other countries
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Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18
non-energy sectors
18 non-energy sectors
I_S Iron and steel LUM Wood, Pulp and printing
CRP Chemical industry CNS Construction
NFM Non-ferrous metals TWL Textiles, wearing, apparel and leather
NMM Non- metal materials OMF Other manufacturing
TRN Transport equipments AGR Agricultural products
OME Other machinery T_T Transportation
OMN Mining ATP Aviation
FPR Food Products BSR Business services
PPP Paper, pulp and printings SSR Social services
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Outline of developed model

• Integration of the top-down economic model and
  bottom-up energy system model
• Division the world into 18 regions
• Division the non-energy industrial sector into 18
  sectors
• Model time span Up to the middle of the 21st
  century for the climate policies
• Intertemporal nonlinear optimization model
  (maximization of the discounted total consumption
  utilities)

• Assessment of the comprehensive optimal
  strategies for the global warming mitigation
  considering the inter-temporal and regional
  structure changes of the industry

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Simulation cases

• Case1(BAU case)
• Without carbon emission control policy
• Case2 (to check the model consistency)
• With carbon emission control policy in developed
  countries
• and without trading of the emission permit
• (regional upper limit of carbon emission in the
  future is equal to that in base year.)

Note In this simulation study, we do not
consider the limit of the amount of the natural
and labor capital, the explicit stock of the
energy conversion plant, and the end effect of
the optimization model.

• Data Assumption in this simulation study

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Data assumption - fossil fuel potential and costs
-

• Assumed fossil fuel endowment (WEC,2001)

Linearized cost function based on Rogner (1997)
is assumed.
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Sectoral value added in the world

• Case 1

• Case 2

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Loss of value added in the world for Case 2
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Regional value added in the world

• Case 1

• Case 2

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World final energy consumption

• Case 1

• Case 2

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World primary energy consumption

• Case 1

• Case 2

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Power generation in the world

• Case 1

• Case 2

1997 2007 2017
2027 2037 2047
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Regional carbon emission by region

• Case 1

• Case 2

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Integration Scenario Generation and Simulations
2Structure Analysis among factors
1TAR-assumptions
Lower warming factors events
Upper warming factors events
5Feedbackconsistency check
Quantitative IAM- economy- technology-
energy- natural resource- etc.
Exogenous conditions
3Scenario generation by X-I method
4parameters, constraints, exogenous variables
Lower warming factors events
Upper warming factors events
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Importance of narrative stories

• Many important descriptive factors are
  essential in the global warming issues.
• IPCC-SRES emphasized the role of narrative
  story-lines.
• Structure analysis and the Technological
  Forecasting methods will provide useful
  information to construct compatible stories.
• Extracting consistent stories from the judgments
  of experts Cross Impact Method is applicable.

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Structure Analysis for the Narrative Scenario
Generation
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Applying Cross-Impact method

• Extract the key factorsCross Impact (X-I) method
  deals with 8-10 factors at one stage.
• Define four regions including worldTo reflect
  the regional conditions(O)OECD (A)Asia (L)ALM
  (R)ROW (W)World
• SRES A1-B2 assumptionsSet the key driving forces
  according to the SRES storylines.

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Extracted key events of the global warming
factors
Events Event Contents of the event
1 Unification of world market World economy is covered by the unified global large market.
2 self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources For the sake of risk-hedging of primary energy supply, regions prefer self-sufficient and diversified energy sources.
3 Expansion of nuclear power stations Nuclear power stations are socially accepted and increase.
4 Social acceptance of environmental costs The environmental additional costs (e.g. relatively expensive renewable sources and recycling costs) are socially accepted.
5 Difficulty in long term investments Long-term investments for more than 30 years become difficult.
6 Penetration of internet Internet become familiar and most people use it.
7 Penetration of environmental education Education on the global environmental issues diffuses over the world.
8 Valuing traditions People value the traditional cultures and customs rather than to accept foreign ones.
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Impact structure among events (SRES-A1
assumption)
Impact structure among events (SRES-A1
assumption)
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Occurrence probabilities and scenarios Results
of X-I method on SRES-A1 assumptions
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Implication structure on SRES-A1 assumptions
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Development of scenarios (tentative)A1
assumptions

• In the A1 case with high per-capita income and
  low population growth, internet diffuses in all
  regions and the global unified market appears.
  Regional culture tends to converge.
• The long term investments for more than 30 years
  become difficult and thus nuclear power stations
  do not increase.
• The self-sufficient supply and the
  diversification of primary energy sources do not
  progress so rapid.
• Thanks to the diffusion of internet and high
  income, environmental education become familiar
  and environmental costs are socially accepted
  well.
• People enjoy the high level consumption.

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Development of scenarios (tentative)A2
assumptions

• A2 case with high population growth and lower
  income suggests the relatively conservative
  world.
• Two possibilities (1) The traditional culture
  and customs dominate the society.(2)
  Globalization progresses like A1.
• In case (1), regional block economy will appear.
  Long term investments become difficult and thus
  nuclear power may not increase.
• In the latter case, where the global unified
  market appears, nuclear power stations are
  socially accepted as well as the long term
  investment.
• Diversification of primary energy sources will
  progress.
• Internet which promotes environmental education
  and environmental cost acceptance diffuses in
  both cases.

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Development of scenarios (tentative)B1
assumptions

• Internet diffuses in all regions and global
  unified market is founded like A1 case.
• Environmental education, utilization of
  renewables and material recycling, and the
  acceptance of environmental costs are well
  recognized.
• The regional traditions and cultures are regarded
  more important than A1 case due to the
  environmental education.
• Globalization of economy and localization of
  culture appear simultaneously.
• The latter promotes the self-sufficient supply
  and the diversification of primary energy sources
  especially in REF and Asia.
• Nuclear power will be also accepted in these
  regions.
• Long term investments will have few difficulties
  in OECD, REF and Asia.

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Development of scenarios (tentative)B2
assumptions

• Regional cultures tend to converge like A1 case.
• Global unified economy also appears.
• Environmental education becomes common and the
  internet diffuses.
• Renewables are also well utilized as the
  environmental costs are widely recognized.
• Nuclear power will not increase so much although
  the society accepts the long term investments.
• Tendency towards the self sufficient supply and
  the diversification of primary energy sources
  will not progress so much.

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Assessments of global warming impacts

• Phoenix Project does not have global environment
  monitoring facilities.
• 2. Phoenix is compiling data and statistics on
  the impacts and aims to extract the key
  information according to the suggestions of the
  experts.
• 3. Cooperation with other institutes is mostly
  essential.
• 3. GIS plays a key role.

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Possible impacts of Sea-level rise on Rice
production area in Bangladesh (100cm sea level
rise case)
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(a) NPP in 2000 (b)
NPP in 2050
Comparison of Net Primary Production in South
Asia Region Estimation based on ECHAM4
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Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050
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Potential Rice Production Change due to High
Temperature Damage in 2050
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Integration of Assessment Modules

• Integrated assessment incorporates
• Uncertainties on climate change, global and
  regional warming impacts, social and economic
  context, technological development, etc.
• Long term views, Middle term strategies and
  Short term actions
• - Scientific knowledge and decision making process

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Expected outcomes

• The changes of the energy supply-demand systems,
  industry structure changes and the international
  industry allocation scenarios will provide the
  basic information to assess the policy measures.
• The outcomes of the project will give the helpful
  information on the energy technology development
  strategies.
• The most preferable burden sharing scenario on
  the carbon emission reduction can be generated.
• Industry policies on the RD on the energy and
  environmental technologies, technology transfer,
  and other industry strategies can be assessed
  under the global warming mitigation policies.