Conference : Future Prospects of the East Asian Economy

1
Conference Future Prospects of the East Asian
Economy Its Geopolitical Risk, 23 February 2004

• Session 3 Geo-Political Risks in Southeast Asia
  and Its Economic Implications
•  
• Geo-Political Risks in Southeast Asia
•  
• Dr Eric Teo Chu Cheow,
• Council Secretary, Singapore Institute of
  International Affairs
• Managing Director, Savoir Faire Corporate
  Consultants, Singapore

2

• Fundamental Trends
• n Geo-Political Risks Outlook for Southeast
  Asia through 2 major categories of
• instability or risks

3
The Fundamental Trends

• n  3 Waves of Change Transformation in
• Southeast Asia
• n  Geo-Political Geo-Economic Shifts

4

• Southeast Asias political economy has
  under-gone three waves of change
  transformation
• nliberalization and globalization in the 1980s
  
• 1990s
• n the 1997-98 Asian Crisis and
• n the 12 Oct 2002 Bali bombing Severe Acute
• Respiratory Syndrome or SARS epidemic in
  2003 (as well as probably the current avian flu
  epidemic)

5
8 trends in East Asias political-economic and
geo-political outlooks

• nFrom the first wave of
• 
  liberalization/globalization
•  
• (a)Liberalization in trade, investments, capital
  flows people-to-people exchange.
•  
• (b)The Successful Exports Vocation of
  Southeast Asia Underscored

6

• n From the second wave of the Asian Crisis (a
  total crisis)
• (c)Common vulnerability the social
  dimension realized
•  
• (d)Developing domestic demand and consumption
•  
• (e)A Shift in the Nexus of the Political
  Economy (from Duopole to Tripole) Renegotiating
  Contrats Sociaux between Governments and the
  Governed.

7
From the third wave of 12 October 2002 Bali
bombing, SARS epidemic (and probably also the
avian flu epidemic)

• (f)Resurgence of the State and public
  goods and services
•  
• (g)The Social dimension and Civil Society
  reinforced with SARS the Fear of Terrorism
•  
• (h)More Accountability, Transparency,
  Openness Communicative Governance

8
Fundamental Geo-political Geo-economic Shifts

• n  Emergence of China
• n Relative Decline of Japan
• n Redefinition of Future Roles for the United
  States and Russia
•  
• will undoubtedly have important consequences
  for Southeast Asia and its economy.

9
The geo-political risks outlook for Southeast
Asia could best be presented in two major
categories of stability

• n ASEANs internal stability (potential factors
  of instability or geo-political risks from within
  the region) and
• n Southeast Asias external stability
  (potential factors of instability or
  geo-political risks from without)

10
The 4 Internal Geo-Political Risks of
ASEAN/Southeast Asia

• n The Asian Crisis, in parallel with ASEANs
  expansion, Inherent Risks of Transition
  Economies and Societies from Within
• n Weak and Budding Institutions and Systems
  within the Context of Democrasi, Reformasi and
  Contrat Social
• n Cultural and Social issues, such as History,
  Religion Ethnicity and
• n Trans-border problems within ASEAN
  Terrorism, Triad Activities, Insurgencies,
  Piracy Arms Trafficking, Clandestine Labour
  Movements Human Trafficking, Health Epidemics
  (SARS, avian flu, AIDs) Environmental Issues.

11
The ASEAN Context Expansion, Crisis the
Divide

• n  The Asian Crisis Its Effects on Old New
  members
• n Expansion of ASEAN from 6 to 10 Inherent
  Problems
• n ASEANs Transition Economies Societies
• n Emergence Danger of a Two-Tier ASEAN
  Socio-Economic Divides

12
Budding Institutional-Building in Southeast Asia

• n  Democrasi the Shifting Nexus of the
  Southeast Asian Political Economy
• n Reformasi Weak Institutions and Systems
• n The Electoral Rendezvous of 2004-2005

13
Indigenous Cultural Social Factors of Southeast
Asia

• n History
• n   Religion
• n Ethnicity

14
ASEANs Trans-border Issues

• n Terrorism, Triad Activities, Arms
  Resource-Smuggling, Piracy Insurgencies
• n Clandestine Labour Trafficking of Women and
  Children
• n Health Epidemics Environmental Scourges

15
The External Geo-Political Risks of
ASEAN/Southeast Asia

• n are built on the 4 internal geo-political
  risks
• n intrinsically linked to the 4 internal
  geo-political risks

16
The 4 External Geo-Political Risks of
ASEAN/Southeast Asia

• n  Emergence of China Implications for
  Southeast Asia/ASEAN
• n   Threat of Radical Militant Islam from the
  Middle East
• n External Pressure on ASEAN as a Regional
  Institution Framework
• n Huge Globalization Risks on ASEAN
  Economies Societies

17
Conclusion

• n The Geo-Political Risks in ASEAN/Southeast
  Asia are more Internal than External.
• n But the 2 sets of Risks are Intrinsically
  Symbiotically Linked.
• n Southeast Asia is Today More Open
  Vulnerable to Geo-Political Risks.

18
A Balanced Stability or An Equilibrium of
Stability in Southeast Asia would necessitate
that

• n An Internal Stability be Acquired so as to
  Ensure External Stability.
• n But this External Stability must in turn be
  Harnessed to Better Guarantee the Internal
  Stability.
•  
• Southeast Asia must Seek to Balance the 2
  Stability in a Ying-Yang Approach, in order
  to Achieve a Balanced Stability or an
  Equilibrium of Stability.