Know

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EarthScope KnowledgeTransfer Developmentin the
Context ofSeismic Hazard Analysis (SHA)
Know
Edward (Ned) Field USGS, Pasadena
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Themes of this Talk

• SHA needs more physics
• SHA needs Information Technology
• Will EarthScope help SHA?

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Short Version of Talk
Improved Seismic Hazard Analysis

• requires a more physics based approach, which
  
  
• requires system level, multidisciplinary effort,
  which
  
• requires modularization of the various
  contributions (community models and databases),
  which
  
• will need interoperability, which
• we dont know how to achieve, which
• is why we need and have an IT collaboration.
• EarthScope will contribute to long-term SHA
  goals (but could hinder as well).

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Seismic Hazard Analysis
Two Components
(1) Earthquake Forecast Probability in tim
e and
space of all M5 events
(2) Ground-Motion Estimation
Intensity Measure Regressions (attenuation relat
ions)
Full waveform modeling
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Part I
SHA needs more physics
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Seismic Hazard Analysis(probabilistic)
Two Components
(1) Earthquake Forecast Probability in tim
e and
space of all M5 events
(2) Ground-Motion Estimation
Intensity Measure Relations (attenuation relatio
ns)
Full waveform modeling
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SCEC Phase-III Report On the extent to which
site effects can
be accounted for in SHA
14 papers
New Regressions
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An important Phase-III Conclusion
Prediction uncertainty remains high on empirical
regressions even after all possible site-effect
corrections have been made (surprising to
engineers).
IMPLICATION Statistical regression approach
appears to be reaching a point of diminishing
returns
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More accurate ground-motion estimates will
apparently require waveform modeling from 1st
principles of physics
10
SCEC Phase-III Report Included 3D waveform si
mulations
14 papers
Magistrale
Olsen
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Although 3D Waveform Simulations constitute our
best hope for more accurate ground-motion
predictions,
Unfortunately they are not yet accurate enough
for official SHA, nor computationally fast enough
for routine use.
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Improvements in Waveform-modeling will require
(2) Improved modeling of high frequencies,
scattering, and nonlinear effects
(3) Carefully orchestrated validation exercises
(4) Propagation of all significant uncertainties
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Note
SHA will continue to rely on intensity-measure
regressions for some time (improvements are
needed, and engineers have other types they would
like developed).
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Seismic Hazard Analysis
Two Components
(1) Earthquake Forecast Probability in tim
e and
space of all M5 events
(2) Ground-Motion Estimation
Intensity Measure Relations (attenuation relatio
ns)
Full waveform modeling
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Current Status
The earthquake-forecast model applied in the
National Hazard maps uses a time-independent
(Poisson) recurrence model for each potential
earthquake, meaning each event is completely
independent of all other events (even those on
the same fault).
The 2001 Fall AGU meeting had more than 100
abstracts on stress interaction effects and
time-dependent earthquake probabilities (lots of
good ideas).
There is consensus that some form of time
dependence and stress interaction exists, but no
consensus on how to model it.
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RELM

• A Working Group
• for the Development of
• Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models
• (Earthquake Forecasts)

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RELM

• Goals

(1) To develop and test a range of viable
earthquake-potential models (not just one
"consensus" model).
(2) To test these models against existing
future geophysical data.
(3) To examine the seismic hazard implications
of each model , which will help
(establish stationary targets)

• define existing uncertainties in seismic hazard
  analysis

• identify research topics needed to reduce these
  uncertainties

• identify which models are exportable to regions
  where options are fewer

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RELM

• Models Under Development

e.g., based on
(1) geological fault data.
(2) historical seismicity.
(3) geodetic strain observations.
(4) stress interaction between earthquakes.
(5) spatial and temporal foreshock-aftershock
statistics.

• Physical simulation models
• (e.g., Rundles Virtual California)

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Part II
SHA needs Information Technology
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SHA Must Interface Among
Disciplines Scientists (of many ilks)
Engineers (research and practice)
Risk Analysts Emergency Response Officials
The Public
Multiple Modeling and Database resources
(especially as we move toward physics-based, sys
tem-level models).
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Example from RELM

• A wide variety of earthquake-forecast models are
  under development.
  
• How do we evaluate the hazard implications of
  each?
  
• Previous approach was to butcher existing SHA
  Fortran code (custom hard-wire) to handle each
  new model separately. This is no longer a viable
  approach.

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Java-based (object oriented) code for Seismic
Hazard Analysiswith a standard interface to
allow any type of earthquake-forecast model to
plug in
This led to the development of
this has subsequently evolved into a
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Framework for Object-Oriented Seismic Hazard
Analysis(FOOSHA?)
GOAL A general framework that will allow the
implementation of all foreseeable types of
earthquake-forecast and ground motion models, as
well as satisfy the rapidly evolving analysis
demands of the engineering community and other
user groups .
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Our Developmental Approach

• Outline a proposed object-oriented SHA framework
  (conceptual model or ontology) publish in SRL
  to get feedback from the broader community.
  
• Begin implementing the core components in Java.
• Implement the framework in Pathway 1 of the SCEC
  ITR Collaboration (expand ontology for KRR,
  utilize Grid computing and digital libraries).
  
• Implement the various RELM earthquake-forecast
  models (many will be wrapped Fortran code).
  
• Modify framework as needed, hopefully leading to
  a useful community standard.

(not yet sure this is a good blueprint)
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Basic Framework (simplified).
Time Span
Earthquake Forecast
Streaming Potential Earthquakes (N total)
PQkn
Site
IMT
IML
Intensity-Measure Relationship
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Intensity-Measure Type/Level a specification of
what the analyst (e.g., engineer) is worried
about
Time Span
Earthquake Forecast
Streaming Potential Earthquakes (N total)
PQkn
Site
IMT
IML
Intensity-Measure Relationship
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Site and Potential Earthquake The two main phys
ical objects used in the analysis
Time Span
Earthquake Forecast
Streaming Potential Earthquakes (N total)
PQkn
Site
IMT
IML
Intensity-Measure Relationship
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Earthquake Forecast One of the two main model c
omponents. A wide variety of types will be
developed.
Time Span
Earthquake Forecast
Streaming Potential Earthquakes (N total)
PQkn
Site
IMT
IML
Intensity-Measure Relationship
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Intensity-Measure Relationship
The other major model component. A variety of t
hese will also be developed.
Time Span
Earthquake Forecast
Streaming Potential Earthquakes (N total)
PQkn
Site
IMT
IML
Intensity-Measure Relationship
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PQkn
Site
IMT
IML
Intensity-Measure Relationship
Prob(IML)
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Models will have to access shared data resources
(community databases)
For example
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PQk List
Time Span
Network Earthquake Catalog
Fault Activity Database
Earthquake Forecast
GPS Data (Velocity Vectors)
Historical Earthquake Catalog
Community Fault Model
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Sharing data resources will help

• Avoid effort duplication
• Help us determine where differences in model
  predictions come from by ensuring that
  participants are using consistent data
  constraints (a huge problem in previous SHA
  efforts)
• If data are machine readable from the host
  institution, model predictions can easily be
  updated when inevitable revisions or additions
  are made to the database (previously data
  revisions have led to multi-year publication
  delays).
• (all of these are critical to improving SHA)

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Exactly how will the ITR collaboration help?
(a few examples)
Grid Computing To enable run-time access to wh
atever high performance computing resources are
available at that moment.
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Exactly how will the ITR collaboration help?
(a few examples)
Grid Computing Digital Libraries
To enable interoperability among distributed ear
thquake-forecast and ground-motion models and the
various databases they depend upon.
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Exactly how will the ITR collaboration help?
(a few examples)
Knowledge Representation and Reasoning (KRR)
To keep track of the ontological attributes and
relationships that we dont want to encumber the
Java code with.
e.g. Attributes of an Earthquake Forecast the
region and time-span its applicable to that
its a monte-carlo simulation versus having
adjustable parameters handling of epistemic
versus aleatory uncertainties whether its a
next event or all event prediction
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Exactly how will the ITR collaboration help?
(a few examples)
KRR and Digital Libraries To enable smart eDa
tabase inquiries (e.g., so that an appropriate
probability model can be constructed for a
potential earthquake based on what information is
found in the fault activity database).
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Exactly how will the ITR collaboration help?
(a few examples)
Digital Libraries To enable version tracking f
or purposes of SHA reproducibility in an
environment of continually evolving models and
databases.
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Part III
Will EarthScope help SHA?
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Will EarthScope help SHA?
Absolutely no question over the long term.
The most profound ways SHA will be impacted by
EarthScope are probably unknown at this time.
EarthScope is a great idea.
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Will EarthScope help SHA?
Big Concern
In terms of SHA (at least) were not making
effective use of data thats already been
collected.
e.g., Strong Motion Database (COSMOS) (inade
quate quality control) Fault Activity Database

(lack thereof)
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Will EarthScope help SHA?
The Problem is
No one wants to pay for the grunt work needed to
put existing data into the most useful form.
Doing so would have a huge, direct, and immediate
impact on SHA.
Thus, from an SHA perspective, its hard for me
to rally around such a massive data gathering
effort as represented by EarthScope.
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Will EarthScope help SHA?
If Earthscope gets funded
I urge you to dedicate sufficient resourced for
making data available in a useful form.

I think 10 for IT is not enough.
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Will EarthScope help SHA?
Biggest Concern
If USArray ends up taking funds away from ANSS,
we will be in very serious trouble with respect
to improving SHA.
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Final Questions
To what extent is EarthScope dedicated to solving
problems directly associated with SHA?

How much is SHA being used to sell EarthScope?