The Relevance of Modeling to Coastal Managers in the Context of Ocean Observing

1
The Relevance of Modeling to Coastal Managers in
the Context of Ocean Observing

• RARGOM Modeling and Observing System Workshop
• July 6, 2005

Josie Quintrell
GoMOOS
2
The Promise of Modeling

• Predictive capacity
• Strategic sampling
• Early warning systems
• Links between physical-chemical-biology
• Real-time measurements
• Adaptive management
• Ecosystem management
• Desktop Decision Support Tools
• Simulations

3
No Single Type of Manager

• Water quality managers discharge permit
  decisions, monitoring, nps pollution, mitigation
• Habitat managers habitat protection, regulation
  and restoration
• Fisheries managers stock assessment, management
  plans, regulations, ecosystem management
• Marine geology mapping and permitting
• Coastal/marine planning land use management,
  aquaculture, dredging, facility permitting (LNG,
  wind farms, etc)
• Emergency response oil spill preventions and
  management search and rescue hazards

4
Some needs of managers

• Fisheries
• Models linked to fisheries regulations
• Biophysical models in support of ecosystem
  management
• Aquaculture
• Near shore models to predict affect of facilities
  on local environment for permitting and
  monitoring needs (currents, flushing rates,
  nutrients, phytoplankton abundance and
  distribution)
• Marine Mammal Protection
• Real-time and predictions on location of Right
  Whales

5
Needs, cont

• Oil spill prevention and recovery
• Desktop simulation tools for prevention and
  contingency planning
• Incorporation of real-time wind, wave and current
  data into response models
• Public health
• Predictive capacity and tracking of HABs to
  assist with strategic sampling, early warning
  systems
• Dredge management
• Decision support tools to determine dredging
  windows, physical models to assist disposal
  issues, beach nourishment

6
Needs, Cont

• Emergency management
• Wave and storm surge predictions
• Integration of real-time data into models for
  search and rescue, oil spill mitigation and storm
  surge.
• Marine water quality
• Nutrient loading models to determine Total Daily
  Maximum Load for estuaries
• Connection between offshore and near shore systems

7
(No Transcript)
8
The Proverbial Gap Continues ..

• Many bridges built
• Science translators
• Extension/outreach
• Shared communications (e.g., this meeting)
• Focus on applied research
• Important but not sufficient ..
• Gap No incentive for product development
• Private sector no market
• Scientists -- no intellectual rewards

9
Private Sector?

• Managers
• Immediate Needs
• Decision Support Tools
• Long Term Needs
• Adaptive Management

Researchers Improved understanding Process
studies Coupled models
Ocean Observing Continuous RT data Product
development
10
Ocean Observing

• Linking research to operations through sustained
  measurements and modeling..
• Shrimp demonstration -- integrating
  environmental, modeling and landings data for
  Technical Team
• Red Tide -- MWRA used model to track bloom
  progression and sampling protocols
• Bottom temperature maps for lobster managers and
  fishermen

11
IOOS Demo A Community Approach to Storm Surge
Modeling (as opposed to a community model for
storm surge)
Result Dissemination
Wind Information
Wave and/or Surge Models
Select region and time range
NCEP
Archive
ADCirc
MM5
Verification
ElCirc
NCAR
Transform and transport data
Visualization
WAM/SWAN
Regional
Ensemble of models run across distributed
resources
Analysis, storage and cataloguing of output data
Input data from varied and distributed sources
12
Next steps .

• Use regional ocean observing efforts to support
  1-2 test projects that would form teams of
  researchers, modelers, managers, software
  engineers to develop predictive tools
  specifically aimed at meeting managers needs --
  e.g.,red tide warning system, etc
• Explore community approach to environmental
  prediction in Gulf of Maine
• Engage private sector in demonstrations

13
Summary

• Researchers aimed at applying new knowledge to
  improve management (adaptive management long
  term)
• Managers - implementing existing management
  framework (decision support tools short term)
  
• Decision support tools -- who?
• Ocean observing? Private sector? Regional
  group?