Western Water Supply

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Western Water Supply

• Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD
• Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise
• Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC
• Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC
• Don Laurine, NWRFC
• Chad Kahler, WFO Tuscon

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Outline

• Western Water Supply
• History
• Current capabilities
• Future enhancements
• Verification
• Water Supply ensemble services
• Climate Change

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Western Water Supply Forecasts

• Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow
  melt dominated basins in western US
• Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with
  other agencies (NRCS and California DWR)
• NWS forecast program began in 1940s
• Primary forecast tools
• Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
• Multivariate Linear Regression

Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit
NRCS / NOAA)
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Project in a Nutshell

• Goals
• A one stop shop for NWS water information at
  the seasonal timescale
• Consistent presentation of products between RFCs
• Harness collective innovation from multiple
  offices
• Users
• Existing Water Supply forecast users
• Strong support from USBR and state water
  resources agencies for examples
• Groups with cross basin interests (e.g. media,
  power companies)
• NWS internal uses
• History
• April 2005 Working group formed, planning
  meeting held
• January 2006 Initial website launched
• September 2006 Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in
  development
• March 2007 Launched outreach effort and included
  SHs
• June 2007 Launched verification capabilities

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Western Water Supply WebMap

• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• One Stop Shop for NWS water supply forecasts
• Flexible and consistent map presence across
  western USA
• Zoomable to basin scale
• Mouse over capability for forecast values

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Western Water Supply WebForecast Evolution Plot

• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• Evolution of current year forecasted and observed
  streamflow
• Options to include
• Normal streamflow volume
• Forecast window
• Forecast accumulation
• Etc
• Originally developed at NWRFC

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Western Water Supply WebFY07 Developments

• Incorporate water supply points east of the
  Continental Divide (MB, AB, and WG RFCs)
• Add ESP to forecast evolution plot prototype
  developed at NWRFC
• Add forecast verification information prototype
  developed at WRH/SSD
• Develop database capabilities for website
• Develop training and outreach materials

ESP prototype plot
Verification prototype plot
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Forecast Verification

• Goal Provide users of all types with forecast
  verification information
• Easy to understand
• Meaningful
• Accessible from forecasts
• Dynamically generated plots from database

Plot credit Chad Kahler
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WS Verification Archive visualization

• Historical forecast and reforecast examination
• Visually compare archived forecasts and
  reforecasts to observed volumes

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WS VerificationError statistics

• Error Statistics
• RMSE, MAE, ME for deterministic, RPS for ensemble
• Conditional on lead-time (left) and year (right)
• Dynamically generated

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WS VerificationSkill

• Skill Scores
• RMSE-SS for deterministic RPSS for probabilistic
• Reference forecast climatology
• Conditional statistics based on lead time and
  year
• Dynamically generated

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Ensemble Services

• Goals
• Intuitive user interface for current ensemble
  forecast
• Access to archived streamflow data for
  perspective
• Dynamic, flexible plots
• Access to underlying data and database
• Climate change scnearios

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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
Season Mar-Aug Mar-Sep Apr-Jul
Mar - Aug
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
Accumulation Options O Season O Normal Runoff O
Model Normal O Historical Years O Ensemble
members by forcing year O Ensemble members by
El Nino O Plot Type O Data
Plot Options O Normal Runoff O Model Normal O
Historical Years O Ensemble members by forcing
year O Ensemble members by El Nino O Plot
Type O Data
Season Mar-Aug Mar-Sep Apr-Jul
Mar - Aug
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
Accumulation Options O Season O Normal Runoff O
Model Normal O Historical Years O Ensemble
members by forcing year O Ensemble members by
El Nino O Plot Type O Data
Plot Options O Normal Runoff O Model Normal O
Historical Years O Ensemble members by forcing
year O Ensemble members by El Nino O Plot
Type O Data
Season Mar-Aug Mar-Sep Apr-Jul
Mar - Aug
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
1977
Probability
Volume (kac-ft)
Accumulation Options O Season O Normal Runoff O
Model Normal O Historical Years O Ensemble
members by forcing year O Ensemble members by
El Nino O Plot Type O Data
Plot Options O Normal Runoff O Model Normal O
Historical Years O Ensemble members by forcing
year O Ensemble members by El Nino O Plot
Type O Data
Season Mar-Aug Mar-Sep Apr-Jul
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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
id shefpc bwmon ewmon pb tb cdate vdate source
tyr vol TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 4 4 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8
ESP 1949 4622.32 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 5 5 NA NA
2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1949 6286.47 TDAO3
QCMFZZZ 6 6 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1949
9380.26 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 7 7 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8
ESP 1949 16447.54 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 8 8 NA NA
2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1949 37084.47 TDAO3
QCMFZZZ 9 9 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1949
25190.47 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 10 10 NA NA 2007-1-8
2007-1-8 ESP 1949 12261.29 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 11 11
NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1949 7648.83 TDAO3
QCMFZZZ 12 12 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1949
5181.27 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 13 13 NA NA 2007-1-8
2007-1-8 ESP 1949 79.79 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 4 4 NA
NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1950 5384.16 TDAO3
QCMFZZZ 5 5 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1950
7285.36 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 6 6 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8
ESP 1950 13376.55 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 7 7 NA NA
2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1950 14649.88 TDAO3
QCMFZZZ 8 8 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1950
23272.64 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 9 9 NA NA 2007-1-8
2007-1-8 ESP 1950 37703.04 TDAO3 QCMFZZZ 10 10
NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1950 24393.92 TDAO3
QCMFZZZ 11 11 NA NA 2007-1-8 2007-1-8 ESP 1950
10478.20
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Work in Progress
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Climate Change

• Latest IPCC report confirms temperatures
  averaged over all habitable continents will
  very likely rise at greater than the global
  average rate in the next 50 years and by an
  amount substantially in excess of natural
  variability. (IPCC WR1, 2007)

Source IPCC, 2007
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Trends in 1 Apr SWE over the 19602002 (left) and
1950-1997 (right) periods of record directly from
snow course observations from Mote (2006) and
Mote et al. (2005) respectively.
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Extend NWS Product Suite?
Years
Climate Change based run off scenarios?

• Current product suite covers hours to seasons
• Should we consider climate change scenarios and
  build multi-year products for run-off,
  temperature, precipitation?
• User requirements from power companies, BoR, etc
  for climate change scenarios

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ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICES Forecast Point
Columbia River at the Dalles Dam
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Water Supply withClimate Change

• Many in water community are asking for it
• Goal Provide scenario based water supply
  outlooks in the context of historical data and
  current season forecasts
• Temperature, lead time, and/or atmospheric carbon
  based scenarios closely linked to IPCC
• Leverage historical simulation capabilities in ESP

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Summary

• Western Water Supply
• History
• Current capabilities
• Future enhancements
• Verification
• Water Supply ensemble services
• Climate Change

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The EndLarger versions of graphics follow
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